Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares

With new technically advanced methods and computers at our disposal, the efficient market hypothesis is once again being debated. At the same time, we are witnessing an unprecedented growth in both existing and new financial markets. These new markets are often in economies which have just recently embraced free market economics; we term these stock markets infant markets. Such stock markets are obviously not efficient in allocating the supply of savings to productive capital. We do not test whether or not these infant markets are informationally efficient, but instead examine whether and how they are becoming more efficient. We propose modelling the excess returns of individual securities using a multi-factor model with time-varying coefficients and generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) errors. If the markets are becoming more informationally efficient or the agents are learning, we would expect this to manifest itself as the time-varying coefficients becoming more stable as time increases. We test our model using data on four Bulgarian shares. First, we estimate an AR(2) model and a GARCH-M(1,1) model for the shares. Then, we estimated our AR(2) model with time varying coefficients and GARCH type errors. We find varying levels of efficiency and varying speeds of movement towards efficiency within our sample of four shares.     

Did the Tax Reform Act of 1986 Improve Compliance? Three Studies of Pre- and Post-TRA Compliance Attitudes*

The Tax Reform Act of 1986 rewrote the federal income tax code, bringing it closer to policy professionals' vision of what constitutes an equitable and efficient income tax. Research on tax compliance suggests the law might have affected taxpayer compliance in three ways: by reducing opportunities to overstate deductions, by changing perceptions of fairness, and by altering tax liabilities. Changes in taxpayer perceptions, attitudes, and noncompliance intentions were examined in three bodies of survey data, each containing pre-and post-reform data from independent samples of the same population. The results show an improved normative climate for taxpayer compliance and point to both the feasibility and the importance of examining the effects of substantive tax policies on taxpayer perceptions, attitudes, and behavioral intentions.     

Prison mental health services: results of a national survey of standards, resources, administrative structure, and litigation

The formation of adequate mental health systems within prisons has accelerated as a result of successful class action lawsuits. Our recent national survey questioned all state correctional departments about the existence of standards in each system, compliance with such standards, prevalence of class action lawsuits involving the issue of providing adequate mental health services for inmates, issues related to consent decrees, available mental health resources within the correctional system, and the administrative structure of the mental health system. Our purpose was to identify those factors correlated with certified class action lawsuits involving issues related to mental health services. Twenty-one states were involved in such litigation. Only the presence of psychiatric hospitals operated by the department of corrections correlated with the presence of certified class action lawsuits involving mental health services. Prison systems larger than 15,000 inmates were at higher risk for such litigation. Smaller systems having psychiatric hospitals run by the state mental health agency appeared to be at less risk for such litigation.     

The decision to leave an abusive relationship: The testing of an alternative methodological approach

Most studies that consider the factors influencing the decision to leave an abusive relationship rely on retrospective, self-report data. In addition to the biased samples that are frequently obtained in such investigations, the methodological shortcomings of survey research limit its explanatory power, particularly when applied to such sensitive topics as family violence. This report introduces an alternative method for studying the decision to leave an abusive relationship. Forty-five men and 68 women were studied using an experimental computer game of an abuse-like relationship. The tendency to leave this relationship was measured under four differing conditions of severity and frequency of abuse. A logit analysis revealed that the frequency of abuse was more consequential to women's decisions to leave, while severity of abuse was more salient for men. In addition, the hypothesized model, including frequency of abuse, severity of abuse, and locus of control, fits well for women but not for men. The implications of these findings, as well as the validity and future application of experimental games, are discussed.     

Recovery of decomposed and skeletal human remains in the "Green River Murder" Investigation. Implications for medical examiner/coroner and police

The Green River Murder Investigation in King County, Washington, is currently the longest active serial murder investigation in U.S. history. During its course, over 26 separate scenes with from one to five victims each have been processed. The experience of the authors is presented in order to acquaint other agencies with techniques of outdoor scene processing that have evolved during recovery of remains from Green River and other skeletal cases.     

Intellectual Property Theft and Organized Crime: The Case of Film Piracy

This article seeks to understand the processes by which the crime of intellectual property theft is organized, with specific attention given to film piracy. It seeks to identify the structure and function of the criminal enterprises engaged in this crime and assess the degree to which organized crime is involved with film piracy. An analysis of available sources reveals that general conclusions about the relationship of organized crime to film piracy results from a lack of useable and verifiable information in media, government, and industry sources. In the absence of independent, substantive analysis, anecdote and industry interests currently drive public policies and legal developments created to address the role of organized crime in film piracy. In the United States and across the globe, seizures, criminal indictments, civil actions, and public awareness are up considerably. Whether or not these advances can be maintained in the face of technological advances, the evolution of industry economic structures, and consumer indifference to the stigma of intellectual property theft and concern at industry response to such theft remains to be seen. Specific recommendations for future research are offered. The author would like to thank the International Center of the National Institute of Justice for soliciting funding this research through a grant, Intellectual Property and Organized Crime. He also Thanks Jay S. Albanese and his the anonymous reviewers of this work for their helpful comments and criticisms. This article only reflects the findings of the author, not the National Institute of Justice, Dr. Albanese or the reviewers.     

Public Management 1996: Once More Unto the Breach

Reviewing public administration in Australia was once akin to watching glaciers — you knew there was movement and something was happening beneath the surface, but detection required patient observation over a long period of time.     

Site of discovery in the bath tub. Evaluation of a fatality after four years using postmortem roentgen diagnosis]

On the one hand the following case demonstrates the problems of finding a dead body in the bathroom and on the other hand the importance of postmortem x-ray examinations. The corpse of an 65-year-old woman was discovered in her bath tub. At the body's feet there was a hair dryer. Investigations concerning murder were negative, circumstances appeared to be unsuspicious. That was why a postmortem examination was not performed. -4 years later murder had to be considered. After manual strangling the deceased and the hair dryer were layed into the bath tub. The corpse was exhumed and taken to a forensic autopsy. It was found that the hyoid bone and the superior horn of the thyroid cartilage were both fractured on the right. Damages caused by the preparation itself were excluded by using serial roentgenographs. These observations in combination with histological findings and the results of further investigations convincingly supported the suspicion of strangling by hand.