Proper assessment of the JFK assassination bullet lead evidence from metallurgical and statistical perspectives

The bullet evidence in the JFK assassination investigation was reexamined from metallurgical and statistical standpoints. The questioned specimens are comprised of soft lead, possibly from full-metal-jacketed Mannlicher-Carcano (MC), 6.5-mm ammunition. During lead refining, contaminant elements are removed to specified levels for a desired alloy or composition. Microsegregation of trace and minor elements during lead casting and processing can account for the experimental variabilities measured in various evidentiary and comparison samples by laboratory analysts. Thus, elevated concentrations of antimony and copper at crystallographic grain boundaries, the widely varying sizes of grains in MC bullet lead, and the 5-60 mg bullet samples analyzed for assassination intelligence effectively resulted in operational sampling error for the analyses. This deficiency was not considered in the original data interpretation and resulted in an invalid conclusion in favor of the single-bullet theory of the assassination. Alternate statistical calculations, based on the historic analytical data, incorporating weighted averaging and propagation of experimental uncertainties also considerably weaken support for the single-bullet theory. In effect, this assessment of the material composition of the lead specimens from the assassination concludes that the extant evidence is consistent with any number between two and five rounds fired in Dealey Plaza during the shooting.     

Decision-Making About Volitional Impairment in Sexually Violent Predators

The Kansas v. Hendricks (1997) decision, in which the Supreme Court authorized post-sentence civil commitment for certain sex offenders, appeared to be constitutionally legitimized by limiting the class of offenders eligible for this special form of civil commitment to those who are "unable to control" their dangerousness. Nowhere in the available record, however, did the Court elucidate what they meant by this notion of volitional impairment. This study sought to examine factors that legal professionals (n=43), psychologists (n=40), and mock jurors (n=76) deem most relevant to a determination of sex offender volitional impairment. Participants, who were randomly assigned to a sexual predator commitment or an insanity hearing context, read a series of 16 vignettes that described a pedophilic offender and included combinations of variables hypothesized to be related to judgments of volitional impairment. Results suggested that participants, who as a group made remarkably high estimates of likelihood of future sexual violence, considered verbalization of control, history of sexual violence, and the context of the hearing as highly relevant to determinations of volitional impairment. Implications for policy and practice are explored.     

Violence against women associated with arrests for sex trade but not drug charges

The current study was designed to examine associations between gender-based violence and arrests due to sex trade or drug-related charges among a statewide sample of incarcerated women in Rhode Island. Incarcerated women were asked to participate in brief pre- and posttest surveys of their experiences of violence, sexual risk and substance use behaviors, as part of a study on the effectiveness of a family planning program in a state correctional facility; data from pretest surveys (N=447) were used for current analyses. Logistic regression analyses adjusted for demographics were used to assess significant associations between gender-based violence variables (i.e., adolescent intimate partner violence (IPV), adult IPV, childhood sexual assault (SA), adolescent SA, and adult SA) and arrests due to sex trade or drug-related charges. Significant relationships were observed between arrests for sex trade and adult SA (OR=2.1, 95%CI=1.2-3.6), adolescent IPV (OR=2.5, 95%CI=1.5-4.1), and adult IPV (OR=1.7, 95%CI=1.1-2.6); no significant associations were observed for drug-related charges. Findings from the current study demonstrate that experiences of gender-based violence are associated with arrests for sex trade but not drug-related charges. Interventions for incarcerated women are needed to consider and address history of victimization from gender-based violence and its relation to women's historic and future sex trade involvement.     

The application of pancuronium bromide (Pavulon) forensic analyses to tissue samples from an "Angel of Death" investigation

The case report of a serial killer who worked at several hospitals as a respiratory therapist is presented. The suspect was initially labeled a benevolent Angel of Death who ended the suffering of elderly patients through mercy killing. However, his subsequently declared motive for homicide was very different from other similar cases in medical settings. The application of new analysis techniques for the detection of pancuronium bromide in a series of aged exhumation tissues gave positive results and led to the resultant conviction of the therapist.     

Comparing Effect Sizes in Follow-Up Studies: ROC Area,Cohen's <Emphasis Type="Italic">d</Emphasis>, and <Emphasis Type="Italic">r</Emphasis>

In order to facilitate comparisons across follow-up studies that have used different measures of effect size, we provide a table of effect size equivalencies for the three most common measures: ROC area (AUC), Cohen's d, and r. We outline why AUC is the preferred measure of predictive or diagnostic accuracy in forensic psychology or psychiatry, and we urge researchers and practitioners to use numbers rather than verbal labels to characterize effect sizes. Strictly speaking, d values pertain only to variables scored on an interval scale. When the nondichotomous variable is ordinally scaled, r or AUC should be used. Nevertheless, the values in Table 1 allow one to compare the relative magnitudes across studies that have reported any of the three effect size measures.     

Teaching Young Children to Discriminate Abusive From Nonabusive Situations Using Multiple Exemplars in a Modified Discrete Trial Teaching Format

Personal safety programs can teach young children knowledge and skills they can utilize to avoid or escape abduction and sexual abuse (Wurtele, 1990). An appropriate escape response will not occur, however, if the child is unable to discriminate an innocuous situation from a potentially abusive one. This study examines the crucial elements involved in training the recognition or discrimination phase in personal safety programs. A multiple probe design across three typically developing children, ages 5-years 7-months through 6-years 7-months, was used to determine whether rules and discrete trial training of discriminations of appropriate and inappropriate touch and situations generalized to puppet role-play scenarios. All participants showed increases in correct responding on generalization role-play probes and maintained these increases over a 3-and 6-week follow-up.     

Why do evaluation researchers in crime and justice choose non-experimental methods?

Despite the general theoretical support for the value and use of randomized controlled experiments in determining ‘what works’ in criminal justice interventions, they are infrequently used in practice. Reasons often given for their rare use include that experiments present practical difficulties and ethical challenges or tend to over-simplify complex social processes. However, there may be other reasons why experiments are not chosen when studying criminal justice-related programs. This study reports the findings of a survey of criminal justice evaluation researchers as to their methodological choices for research studies they were involved in. The results suggest that traditional objections to experiments may not be as salient as initially believed and that funding agency pressure as well as academic mentorship may have important influences on the use of randomized controlled designs.In August 2005, Dr. Lum’s affiliation will change to George Mason University.     

Fighting cutbacks: some issues for public sector administrators

AbstractAdministrators of many publicly funded organizations are facing the need to implement cutbacks in the light of current budgetary restrictions. An alternative or supplementary course of action to making cuts is to resist them. This article examines four organizations - a Montreal university, a Montreal social service centre and two British health authorities - to see how they dealt with this issue of resistance. Resisting cutbacks requires the use of political strategies which are effective in persuading funding agencies to increase or maintain budgets. The four case studies illustrate the components of a successful strategy in terms of identifying the relevant interest groups, building coalitions and creating legitimacy. In addition, the question of whether administrators should resist budget cuts is explored. The pitfalls of resistance that were encountered by the four organizations are identified, as are the advantages. It is shown that while resistance is a viable option for many public administrators, it is no simple matter. Those contemplating this course of action need to be aware of the issues involved so that they can assess and enhance their chances of success, while minimizing any detrimental effects that resistance may have on the organization and its employees.     

Hard truths for strategic change: Dilemmas of implementing affirmative action

This paper addresses some of the obstacles and dilemmas we face as we attempt to influence the ways in which affirmative action gets implemented in our universities. General obstacles to implementation discussed include: external initiation and regulation of the program, conflict of program goals with other organizational goals, the often overlooked distinction between stated and real goals, powerless organizational placement of the Affirmative Action Office, general resistance to a program dealing with sexism and racism, and the lack of self interest in the program on the part of many of those in powerful organizational positions.Two dilemmas for our influence attempts are then presented. The first is, how do we respond to the multiple goals of our organizations, especially when they appear to conflict with affirmative action? The second is how do we define our objectives clearly and straight-forwardly enough so that they can be achieved, while we avoid alienating potential allies? These dilemmas are discussed, with the understanding that there are no ‘right’ resolutions, but that resolution must be done within the context of our overarching goal and our own organizational realities.