With David Livingstone to the Falls

The following account of his visit to the Victoria Falls isextracted from the explorer's "Missionary Travels and Researchesin South Africa." The centenary of his discovery of "Mosioatunya,"—the place where the smoke thunders, and the only place,incidentally, which Livingstone gave an English name to—isbeing celebrated at Livingstone, Southern Rhodesia, next month.     

SINUSOIDAL PATTERN ANALYSIS IN CRIMINAL INCIDENCE

This paper demonstrates a set of statistical techniques which can be used to assess variations in delinquency offensex The subjects are juveniles convicted of aggravated assault, aggravated battery, burglary, homicide, rape, and robbery. A statistically significant sinusoidal pattern was observed.     

FROM SOCIALISM TO FASCISM: THE RELATION BETWEEN THEORY AND PRACTICE IN THE WORK OF ROBERT MICHELS II.

Abstract This article concludes a study tracing the role of élite theory in Michels' development from revolutionary socialist to Fascist ideologue. It argues, first that the laws of oligarchy and elite circulation as expounded by Mosca and Pareto made the Fascist seizure of power appear historically necessary. It then examines the contribution which the experience of Fascist rule made to the further development of élite theory in Michels' work; his use of the theory to give scientific status to the self-image of the Fascist élite and the charismatic claims of its leader; his legitimation of authoritarian government and nationalist policies through the theories of mass psychology. The conclusion argues that what distinguished Michels from other Fascist ideologues was his use of scientific categories, and locates the origin of these categories in the historical experience of pre-world war Europe.     

Can Democracy Cope?

The success story of democracy over the twentieth century has given way to doubts in the twenty‐first, as democracies struggle to cope with difficult wars, mounting debts, climate change and the rise of China. This essay uses intellectual history to explain the link between long‐term democratic success and short‐term democratic failure. It distinguishes three distinct views of what can go wrong with democracy, and identifies the third (which I call ‘the confidence trap’, an idea that originates with Tocqueville) as the key to understanding our present predicament. Democratic success creates blind spots and a reluctance to tackle long‐term problems. I use this idea to explain and put in context Fukuyama's claims about the end of history, and to examine the link between democratic failure and market failure.     

A Very Peculiar Revolution: Britain's Politics and Constitution, 1970–2011

Britain's constitution has changed dramatically over the past forty years in which the author has been involved in national politics: devolution, the supremacy of EU law, the greater willingness of the judiciary to intervene in political issues and new human rights legislation. However these changes have been essentially random, argues David Lipsey, lacking any binding theme. These changes continue under the new coalition government. However the even greater changes to British politics have essentially a single source: the dramatic change in social class in Britain and its impact on electoral politics—for example the rise of the media and the decline of ideology     

RESTRICTIVE DETERRENT EFFECTS OF A WARNING BANNER IN AN ATTACKED COMPUTER SYSTEM

System trespassing by computer intruders is a growing concern among millions of Internet users. However, little research has employed criminological insights to explore the effectiveness of security means to deter unauthorized access to computer systems. Drawing on the deterrence perspective, we employ a large set of target computers built for the sole purpose of being attacked and conduct two independent experiments to investigate the influence of a warning banner on the progression, frequency, and duration of system trespassing incidents. In both experiments, the target computers (86 computers in the first experiment and 502 computers in the second) were set either to display or not to display a warning banner once intruders had successfully infiltrated the systems; 1,058 trespassing incidents were observed in the first experiment and 3,768 incidents in the second. The findings reveal that although a warning banner does not lead to an immediate termination or a reduction in the frequency of trespassing incidents, it significantly reduces their duration. Moreover, we find that the effect of a warning message on the duration of repeated trespassing incidents is attenuated in computers with a large bandwidth capacity. These findings emphasize the relevance of restrictive deterrence constructs in the study of system trespassing.