Grasping the Commercial Institutional Peace

While the commercial institutional peace research program provides empirical evidence that international institutions, especially preferential trade arrangements, help reduce the incidence of militarized inter-state conflict, it fails to delineate clearly how such institutions matter. Building from the logic that low opportunity costs for fighting, private information, and commitment problems constitute important causes of war, this article explores three interrelated causal mechanisms. First, the state leaders' increased expectations about future commerce create an incentive for these actors to consider peaceful bargains as an alternative to costly war. Second, security coordination under the umbrella of a commercial institution provides fuller information about state military capabilities, thus making inter-state bargaining for dispute resolution more efficient. Third, in bringing together high-level state leaders on a regular basis, commercial institutions may create the trust necessary to overcome commitment problems in inter-state bargaining. I explore how these mechanisms have operated within the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Economic Community of West African States.     

Inequality, unemployment and crime in Latin American cities

Crime rates in many Latin American citiestend to be very high. But there is alsodiversity between and within cities. Regardless of whether the role ofdeterrence or those of poverty andinequality are emphasised as causes ofcrime, the use of aggregate data instatistical work may provoke seriousunobserved-heterogeneity biases. Diversity, divisiveness and heterogeneitymay also affect future trends, includingfurther vigilantism, official orsemi-official violence, segmentation,privatisation and ``medievalisation'. Thediscussion is completed by some ideas as tothe possibility that Latin America'spresent may be an accurate forecast ofEurope's future.     

Carl Graap and the Formation of Weimar Foreign Policy Toward Soviet Russia from 1919 until Rapallo

Even though the conviction that Russia was evolving in a more moderate direction was an important underlying assumption of German policy in the months leading up to the Treaty of Rapallo, it has been essentially ignored in the scholarship on Rapallo. Equally ignored is the central role played by Carl Graap in promoting this assumption in Berlin. This article aims toward filling this gap and toward improving our understanding of the relationship between Germany and Russia in the twentieth century in general and in the period from 1919 to 1922 in particular.     

Accruing Retirement Costs for Federal Employees

The president's 2003 budget proposed that federal agencies pay the full cost of their employees' pension and retiree health benefits as such benefits are earned starting in 2003. The main reason for the proposed change is to provide policymakers and agency managers with a more complete measure of the cost of providing current services. The main disadvantage of the proposal is that estimates of the accrual costs of retiree health benefits are subject to large errors. The proposed change would not increase total outlays, nor would it affect the budget deficit or surplus.     

Advising for impact: lessons from the Rae review on the use of special‐purpose advisory commissions

Abstract: Ontario's recent Postsecondary Review, led by former premier Bob Rae, was dramatically more successful than previous reviews by special‐purpose advisory commissions on postsecondary education conducted in Ontario. The authors argue that the success of special‐purpose advisory commissions ‐ defined as the extent to which a commission's recommendations are implemented in a timely way ‐ is dependent on environmental variables (such as the economy, fiscal situation and political cycle), process variables (such as reporting relationships, characteristics of the commissioners and stakeholder strategies) and the political acuity with which the commission develops recommendations that can command broad public support. The Rae review benefited from political conditions that favoured stronger investments in postsecondary education, despite a difficult fiscal situation. The report also benefited from a stakeholder community that was able to put aside most internal differences for the sake of a perceived common good. Within this environment, the review created a highly focused process that involved extensive consultation, the support of expert panel members and frequent interaction with decision‐makers. The review developed recommendations that were sensitive to long‐standing patterns of public opinion, articulated new public goals, recognized the important role to be played by each major stakeholder and proposed a new institution to entrench positive change in the long term. This experience offers lessons for governments, stakeholders and future commissions on how to manage special‐purpose advisory commissions in a way that maximizes their policy impact. Sommaire: La récente étude de l'éducation post‐secondaire en l'Ontario, menée par l'ancien premier ministre provincial Bob Rae, a remporté beaucoup plus de succès que les études antérieures entreprises en Ontario par des commissions consultatives spécialisées en éducation post‐secondaire. Les auteurs prétendent que le succès des commissions consultatives spécialisées ‐ défini par la mesure dans laquelle les recommandations d'une commission sont mises en œuvre de façon adéquate ‐ dépend de paramètres environnementaux (tels que l'économie, la situation financière et le cycle politique), de paramèrres de traitement (tels que les rapports hiérarchiques, les caractéristiques des commissaires et les stratégies des intervenants) et de l'acuité politique avec laquelle la commission élabore des recommandations qui peuvent susciter une forte adhésion du public. l'étude Rae a bénéficié d'un contexte politique favorable à de solides investissements dans l'éducation post‐secondaire, malgré une situation financière difficile. Le rapport a également tiré parti d'une communauté d'intervenants qui ont pu mettre de côté la plupart de leurs différences internes au profit de l'intérêt commun. Dans ce contexte, l'étude a donné lieu à un processus hautement focalisé qui a comporté de nombreuses consultations, l'appui des membres d'une commission d'experts, et de fréquentes interactions avec les décisionnaires. l'étude a mis au point des recommandations sensibles aux tendances ancrées dans l'opinion publique, a formulé de nouveaux objectifs publics, a reconnu l'importance du rôle à jouer par les principaux intervenants et a proposé qu'une nouvelle institution garantisse des changements positifs à long terme. Cette expérience offre des leçons aux gouvernements, aux intervenants et aux futures commissions sur la manière de gérer les commissions consultatives spécialisées afin de maximiser l'impact de leurs politiques.     

For better? For worse? Humanitarian aid in conflict1

Humanitarian aid should be judged against international humanitarian law (IHL), which gives civilians certain basic rights, including protection in armed conflicts. Aid agencies should consider the various side-effects of their interventions, in order to assess the net impact and decide whether to work in any given situation. They have no responsibility to provide aid where the net impact is negative, or to those who violate international law. If governments fail in their responsibilities to protect civilians, this does not give aid agencies the responsibility of filling the vacuum; but it does mean that they should campaign for governments to act. Current Northern debate on support for the citizens of countries in conflict is usually expressed in terms of charity, rather than a response to what people are doing for themselves. Aid agencies should help to change this.