The future of Tibet: A Chinese dilemma

Conclusion In a recent speech Amartya Sen argued that democracy had become a universal value. He argued that at this time the burden is on those who would deny democracy to justify their position. He argued that this was a historic change from not long ago when the advocates for democracy in Aisa or Africa had to argue for democracy with their backs to the wall. In Asia, China has historically championed the fight against imperialism and has celebrated the fact the the Chinese people have stood up to take their much-deserved place in the world. For China, which as worked so assertively to bring its nation into the modern world, it is a sign of failure if Tibetans, and even Chinese, have to continue to argue for genuine democracy and self-government with their backs against the wall. The Tibetans really face no dilemma since they are offered no choice except to defend their basic interest. But at present the Chinese leaders face a profound dilemma whether to embrace the modern values that are consistent with their own development and reform process or to continue to defy, especially in respect of Tibet, the very values they have championed in their relationships with the rest of the world. It is with regard to these universal values, against imperialism and in favor of democracy and self-rule, that solutions to the Tibetan problem should be found. To subjugate the Tibetan people is not only inconsistent with contemporary values but is also in contradiction of the pressures for change being spawned by China’s own emerging order in its reform era. It is within China’s power at present to set about solving the issues it confronts with Tibet. It can do so in ways that are consistent with its long-term developmetn interests or, alternatively, insist on old style imperial domination at the long-term costs of fostering a territorial and political structure for development that is inadequate both for itself and Tibet.     

Leveraging Strength: The Pillars of American Grand Strategy in World War II

This article argues that U.S. leaders navigated their way through World War II challenges in several important ways. These included: sustaining a functional civil-military relationship; mobilizing inside a democratic, capitalist paradigm; leveraging the moral high ground ceded to them by their enemies; cultivating their ongoing relationship with the British, and embracing a kind of adaptability and resiliency that facilitated their ability to learn from mistakes and take advantage of their enemies’ mistakes.     

Strategic Latency and World Order

This article examines “strategic latency,” a condition in which technologies that could provide military (or economic) advantage remain untapped. As difficult as it is to explain why certain ideas and technologies flourish and find rapid acceptance, it is equally hard to understand why some good ideas languish, only to be rediscovered and exploited under other circumstances. Why is latent capacity so often dormant? What are the indicators that latent capacity is on the verge of being weaponized?

History is merely a list of surprises. . . . It can only prepare us to be surprised yet again.Kurt Vonnegut, Slapstick

     

A Randomized Trial of Probation Case Management for Drug-Involved Women Offenders

This paper reports findings from a clinical trial of a probation case management (PCM) intervention for drug-involved women offenders. Participants were randomly assigned to either PCM (n=92) or standard probation (n=91), and followed for 12 months using measures of substance abuse, psychiatric symptoms, social support and service utilization. Arrest data were collected from administrative datasets. The sample (N=183) included mostly African American (57%) and White (20%) women, with a mean age of 34.7 (SD = 9.2) and mean education of 11.6 years (SD = 2.1). Cocaine and heroin were the most frequently reported drugs of abuse, 86% reported prior history of incarceration, and 74% had children. Women assigned to both PCM and standard probation showed change over time in the direction of clinical improvement on 7 of 10 outcomes measured. However, changes observed for the PCM group were no different than those observed for the standard probation group. Higher levels of case management, drug abuse treatment, and probationary supervision may be required to achieve improved outcomes in this population.     

Multiplex short tandem repeat amplification of low template DNA samples with the addition of proofreading enzymes

Abstract:  With <100 pg of template DNA, routine short tandem repeat (STR) analysis often fails, resulting in no or partial profiles and increased stochastic effects. To overcome this, some have investigated preamplification methods that include the addition of proofreading enzymes to the PCR cocktail. This project sought to determine whether adding proofreading polymerases directly in the STR amplification mixture would improve the reaction when little template DNA is available. Platinum Taq High Fidelity and GeneAmp High Fidelity were tested in Profiler Plus? STR reactions alone and in combination with AmpliTaq^® Gold. All reactions included the additional step of a post‐PCR purification step. With both pristine low template DNA and casework samples, the addition of these polymerases resulted in comparable or no improvement in the STR amplification signal. Further, stochastic effects and artifacts were observed equally across all enzyme conditions. Based on these studies, the addition of these proofreading enzymes to a multiplex STR amplification is not recommended for low template DNA work.     

Violent criminals locked up: Examining the effect of incarceration on behavioral continuity

Purpose

The purpose of the current study was to determine whether, and the degree to which, inmates committing specific types of violent crimes in the community were prone to commit acts of violence while incarcerated.

Materials and methods

Data were collected from the Texas Department of Criminal Justice on the prison stock population and a restricted admissions cohort serving time during FY 2008.

Results

After controlling for pre-prison and post-conviction characteristics, crime of conviction retained a modest degree of influence on inmates’ propensity to commit dangerous rule violations in prison. Inmates convicted of assault, robbery and other miscellaneous violent crimes were more likely to commit dangerous rule infractions than inmates convicted of property crimes, supporting the behavioral continuity thesis. Inmates convicted of homicide were no more likely, and those convicted of sexual assault less likely, to commit dangerous rule violations in comparison to those convicted of property crimes.

Conclusions

The findings suggest that researchers and prison officials should not view all inmates convicted of one of a broad category of “violent crimes” in the community as being equivalent in their propensity for violence while incarcerated.     

The predictive value of history and scene investigation for toxicology results in a medical examiner population

Medical examiner offices vary in the extent to which they pursue postmortem toxicology. Our office routinely tests decedents for ethanol and drugs of abuse, and we decided to evaluate the usefulness of our practice. We reviewed 1180 medical examiner cases examined in 2002-2003. History and scene investigation indicated that alcohol or drugs of abuse were likely to be detected in 369 cases, yet toxicology testing revealed an intoxicating substance in 589 cases, a prevalence of 50%. Screening for toxicology testing based on investigative findings had a sensitivity of 0.47, a specificity of 0.84, and a positive predictive value of 0.74. Moreover, even in the 811 cases where initial investigation did not suggest substance abuse, toxicology testing revealed at least 1 substance that was pertinent to the subsequent investigation in one third of the cases (260), and the intoxicating substance was sufficiently important to merit inclusion as a cause of death or contributing factor in nearly half of those cases (113). We conclude that investigation alone is ineffective at predicting the presence of intoxicating substances within decedents.     

Giant berry aneurysms in a forensic setting: a series of 14 cases

This is a series reviewing 14 cases of giant saccular aneurysms diagnosed at the Office of the Chief Medical Examiner of New York City collected over an 11-year period. Data collected on all 14 cases included neuropathological findings, comorbidities, and toxicological findings. Of these 14 cases, 8 were in women, and the ages ranged from 3 to 79 years, with a mean and a median of 50 years. Women were overrepresented in the sixth through eighth decades. Of the 14 cases described, 11 presented with a subarachnoid hemorrhage; 3, no hemorrhage; 2, subdural hemorrhage; 8, intraventricular hemorrhage; 2, intracerebral hemorrhage; and 8, more than 1 hemorrhage type. Location of the aneurysms varied with 6 in the left side of the brain, 6 present in the right side of the brain, and 2 at the midline. We described the clinical, pathological, and toxicological findings associated with these giant aneurysms.     

Correcting the Count: Improving Vital Statistics Data Regarding Deaths Related to Obesity

Obesity can involve any organ system and compromise the overall health of an individual, including premature death. Despite the increased risk of death associated with being obese, obesity itself is infrequently indicated on the death certificate. We performed an audit of our records to identify how often “obesity” was listed on the death certificate to determine how our practices affected national mortality data collection regarding obesity‐related mortality. During the span of nearly 25 years, 0.2% of deaths were attributed to or contributed by obesity. Over the course of 5 years, 96% of selected natural deaths were likely underreported as being associated with obesity. We present an algorithm for certifiers to use to determine whether obesity should be listed on the death certificate and guidelines for certifying cases in which this is appropriate. Use of this algorithm will improve vital statistics concerning the role of obesity in causing or contributing to death.