Public shelter admission rates in Philadelphia and New York City: The implications of turnover for sheltered population counts

Abstract

Previous estimates of the size and composition of the U.S. homeless population have been based on cross‐sectional survey methodologies. National enumeration efforts have yielded point‐prevalence estimates ranging from 0.11 to 0.25 percent of the population. This study reports data from shelter databases in Philadelphia and New York City that record identifiers for all persons admitted and so make possible unduplicated counts of users.

Unduplicated counts of shelter users yield annual rates for 1992 of about 1 percent for both cities and rates near 3 percent over three years in Philadelphia (1990–92) and over five years (1988–92) in New York City. The annual rates are three times greater than rates documented by point‐prevalence studies. Shelter bed turnover rates are reported, as are average monthly first admission and readmission counts over a two‐year period. Implications for future research and public policy are discussed.     

Does Money Buy Votes? The Case of Self-Financed Gubernatorial Candidates, 1998–2008

Because campaign spending correlates strongly with election results, observers of American politics frequently lament that money seems to buy votes. However, the apparent effect of spending on votes is severely inflated by omitted variable bias: The best candidates also happen to be the best fundraisers. Acting strategically, campaign donors direct their funds toward the “best” candidates, who would be more likely to win even in a moneyless world. These donor behaviors spuriously amplify the correlation between spending and votes. As evidence for this argument, I show that (non-strategic) self-financed spending has no statistical effect on election results, whereas (strategic) externally-financed spending does.     

Valence politics and electoral choice in a new democracy: The case of Taiwan

After two peaceful alternations of political power in a single decade, Taiwan is a democratic success story, demonstrating levels of party competition, turnout rates and patterns of civic engagement similar to those in mature Western democracies. What factors drive electoral choice in Taiwan's new democracy? This paper addresses this question by testing rival models of voting behavior using the Taiwan Elections and Democratization Study (TEDS) 2008 presidential election survey data and the 2010 mayoral election survey data. Analyses show that, similar to their counterparts in mature democracies, Taiwanese voters place more emphasis on the performance of political parties and their leaders in delivering policies designed to address valence issues concerning broadly shared policy goals than on position issues or more general ideological stances that divide the electorate. Findings demonstrating the strength of the valence politics model of electoral choice in Taiwan closely resemble the results of analyses of competing models of voting behavior in Western countries such as Great Britain and the United States.     

Signals Intelligence and the Coder Special Branch of the Royal Navy in the 1950s

The Coder (Special) Branch was created to meet the needs of the Navy in gathering Russian language intelligence in the early years of the Cold War. It also supported a national signals intelligence effort coordinated by GCHQ. The article explores our recruitment, brief cryptography training, lengthy training in the Russian language, radio training, and our work in monitoring radio traffic at the radio stations set up in north Germany, first at Cuxhaven, later at Kiel. It concludes with a brief discussion of theIsis case at the central criminal court in London which arose from one of the first unauthorized discussions of these sorts of activities. This case ended with the successful prosecution of two former Coders for breaching the Official Secrets Act.     

A New Phase of European Integration: Organised Capitalisms in Post-Ricardian Europe

In the past, economic integration in Europe was largely compatible with the preservation of different national varieties of capitalism. While product market integration intensified competition, member states could build on and foster their respective comparative advantage. Today, this no longer unequivocally holds true. This article contends that a new, ‘post-Ricardian’ phase of European integration has emerged in which the Commission's and the European Court of Justice's (ECJ's) attempts to promote economic integration systematically challenge the institutions of organised capitalism. It demonstrates this by discussing recent disputes over the Services Directive, the Takeover Directive, and company law. In the current phase of European integration, the Commission's and the ECJ's liberalisation attempts either transform the institutional foundations on which some of the member states' economic systems rely or they create political resistance to an extent that challenges the viability of the European project.     

Fear in the Voting Booth: The 2004 Presidential Election

Every presidential election offers interesting questions for analysis, but some elections are more puzzling than others. The election of 2004 involves two linked and countervailing puzzles. The first is: How did President George W. Bush manage to win at all, avoiding the fates of George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter? The other is: Why didn’t he win by a more substantial margin than in his first election, as all reelected presidents since Eisenhower were able to do? On the one hand, in the wake of September 11, the president had approval ratings around 90% and the threat of terrorism remained a substantial concern through Election Day. This would seem to afford Bush an overwhelming advantage. On the other hand, the public’s views of the state of the economy and of the course of the war in Iraq were negative. We think that the juxtaposition of these questions will help to explain the outcome of the election and of the pattern of the results. Moreover, by unpacking our explanation of the vote into three policy-related issue components—economic retrospective evaluations, domestic policy views, and foreign policy views—we examine the way these preferences contributed to the electorate’s voting decisions.     

Modeling violent crime rates: A test of social disorganization in the city of Tshwane, South Africa

Tests of social disorganization theory are commonplace in international criminological literature. Indeed a plethora of studies had emerged over the past seventy years examining and extending the theory throughout much of the developed world. The testing, however, of the landmark theory's key propositions in Africa in general, and South Africa in particular, is in its infancy. This study aimed to address this shortcoming by analyzing associations between various census measures of social disorganization and violent crime rates in the city of Tshwane, South Africa. Overall, marginal support was found for the social disorganization theory: violent crime in Tshwane was associated with certain measures of socioeconomic deprivation, and residential mobility. The study not only demonstrated the applicability of certain elements of Western criminological theory to contemporary urban South Africa, but also revealed important differences in the ecological dynamics of violent crime across differing cultural contexts.