A Poisson model of incidents of international terrorism in the United States

Abstract

Various haphazard, and often uncoordinated, efforts have been devoted to discouraging and combatting terrorism. Unfortunately, there has been a noticeable lack of quantitative studies of the problem of terrorism. Nevertheless, it can be expected that the problem of international terrorism will eventually be a focus for operations researchers. A factor fundamental to any OR study is an understanding of the underlying generating process for incidents of terrorism. Based on incidents of terrorism from 1968 to 1974, this paper notes that the Poisson is a good model for the occurrence of incidents of international terrorism in the United States. Results of both chi‐square and Kolmogorov‐Smirnov tests are presented. Finally, an unusual result, inconsistent with popular beliefs, is noted.     

Rejoinder

Abstract

Many of Mr. van Walt's criticisms are based solely on fabrications of his own making. For example, I am accused, twice, of referring to myself as a “scholar” and to my article as “scholarly.” I could find no trace of either. I am further accused of considering all Tibetan refugee accounts as “unreliable.” To be sure, I believe that one cannot base the study of historical events solely on refugee accounts, but that does not make all of these stories “unreliable.” After all, Dawa Norbu, a refugee himself, wrote in Red Star Over Tibet, “I never saw or heard of any case of misconduct by a Red soldier.” I would never argue that this statement was unreliable. We are further told that I refer to Tibetans as Chinese when in the second paragraph of my review I wrote, “… Tibetans [are] only one of 56 minority nationalities.” Chinese citizens yes, ethnic Hans no. A final example, although there are many more, is Mr. van Walt's attempt to attribute to me the opinion that

… the only importance to the Western academic world is that the situation in Tibet can teach us how to eliminate a “mystical religion” and that “it gives clues as to how Peking will integrate a capitalist Taiwan into a Communist China in the future”. (emphasis added)     

Is the internet an instrument of global democratization?

This article explores the hypothesis that people in less democratic nations will use the Internet newsgroups devoted to those countries as a relatively ‘safe’ form of political discussion and even protest. Also, it is expected that nationals of those countries living overseas will use these newsgroups to more openly discuss politics in those nations than they could otherwise do so. Before turning to a content analysis of the messages posted in non‐United States Usenet groups, the number of these groups and the levels of political discussion in them are quantified. The article quantifies the international usage of the Usenet as a first attempt to find some patterns in this usage that may be politically motivated. After all, many pundits imagine that the Internet will become the vaunted ‘global village’ and source of ‘grass‐roots democracy’, and not merely in the United States. An examination of the content of about 2500 messages in 41 Usenet groups then follows, with a view to establishing the following: how many messages are explicitly political; how many are in opposition to the current government; how many are pro‐government; whether they primarily serve as alternative sources of news; whether they are attempts to recruit people in the subject country and around the world into some sort of political action; and whether richer nations are more likely to have higher levels of discussion in their newsgroups than poorer ones. The findings conclude that newsgroups devoted to countries with lower levels of democratization have a much higher percentage of anti‐government messages than the newsgroups about nations that are more democratic.     

Choosing Sides in the Horn of Africa: Wikileaks,the Ethiopia Imperative,and American Responses to Post-9/11 Regional Conflicts

The United States has faced at times the policy dilemma of seeing conflict erupt between two countries with which it maintains friendly diplomatic relations. The bureaucratic biases of relevant agencies can play an important role in determining whether to choose sides or remain neutral in these conflicts. In the early 1960s the Africa Bureau adopted a pro-Ethiopia bias that shaped American policy in the Horn of Africa. With the insights provided by the 2010 Wikileaks cables, this analysis explores how the “Ethiopia imperative” affected three inter-related American policy decisions in the Horn of Africa in the early twenty-first century: the decision to support Ethiopia despite its refusal to abide by a legally binding decision that favoured Eritrea following the 1998–2000 Eritrea–Ethiopia border war; to give Ethiopia what amounted to a “blank cheque” to invade Somalia in December 2006 and overthrow the Council of Islamic Courts (CIC); and to confront and isolate Eritrea diplomatically for waging proxy war against Ethiopia in Somalia.     

Film and lantern lectures

The Dutch East Indies. By Amry Vandenbosch. University of California Press. 1941. (Second Edition.)

Wanderer Between Two Worlds: An Autobiography. By Norman Bent‐wich. 8/1/2>” x 5/3/4>”. Pp. vii+358. Kegan Paul, Trench, Trübner and Co., Ltd. 12s. 6d.

Gertrude Bell. By M. R. Ridley. Blackie. 206 pp. Map. Four illustrations. 3s. 6d.

Modern Iran. By L. P. Elwell‐Sutton. Pp. xii+234. Illustrations, maps and plans. Routledge. 1941. 12s. 6d.

Ruz‐gar i Nau. A quarterly illustrated magazine in Persian. No. 2, Autumn, 1941. New York: Doubleday, Doran and Co., Ltd.; London: Hodder and Stoughton. is. net or 20 cents.

Turkey and Britain, is.

This Impertinence. By Peter Arnott. Jenkins. 12s. 6d

Soviet Asia : Its Records and its Problems. By E. S. Bates. Pp. 191 and a map. Jonathan Cape. 8s. 6d.

Green Prison. Twenty Years in Thailand. By W. Leigh Williams. 8/1/2>” x 6”. Pp. 352. Illustrations. London. Herbert Jenkins. 12s. 6d.

The Earth is the Lord's. A novel by Taylor Caldwell. Pp. 400. Collins. 19.41. 9s. 6d.

Genius of Friendship:T. E. Lawrence. By Henry Williamson. 10/1/4>” x 6/3/4>”. Pp. 78. Faber and Faber. 12s. 6d.     

Of miracles and models: The rise and decline of the developmental state in South Korea

This article argues that the South Korean economic 'miracle' was based on the ability of the state to implement a strongly developmental policy. The state was able to do so because, for a time, it was highly insulated from demands from social classes which might have diverted it from the objective of industrialisation. This insulation, or 'relative state autonomy', derived from an historical trajectory which left the state in an unusually dominant position in relation to these classes. Domestic dominance was one factor enabling the state to insert the South Korean economy into world markets in a more advantageous position than would otherwise have been possible. However, its very success in industrialising the country strengthened various class forces, whose demands and intrusion into politics undermined the autonomy of the state. With industrialisation, the state's freedom of manoeuvre was lessened. International influence only reinforced those class pressures inside South Korea. The overall effect was to force a retreat of the state and an end to a developmental policy.