Business Planning for Climate Change: Identifying Vulnerabilities and Planning for Changes in Water,Temperature, Sea Level,Natural Resources,Health Effects,and Extreme Events

The ability to predict the timing and magnitude of future climate and temperature changes at a regional level has become increasingly important for corporate decision making and enterprise risk management. In the short term, companies could face decisions about acquisitions of water-dependent companies and natural resources or might be planning facilities or operations in communities vulnerable to erosion and flooding, changes in water supplies, and increasing health-care costs. In the intermediate term, companies need to assess these vulnerabilities to determine appropriate insurance coverage, plan for new infrastructure, implement preventative health-care programs, or protect natural resources. A technical approach needs to involve predictive tools that can provide bounding estimates at regional scales. The implications of those changes need to be translated to consequences that can affect specific businesses. Corporations must be cognizant of the uncertainties in this forecasting process and for that reason it is essential to link the likelihood of outcomes with the magnitudes of consequences. This article outlines an approach that is gaining traction as a way to address this complex matter.     

Deconstructing CPTED… and Reconstructing it for Practice,Knowledge Management and Research

This paper describes the latest stage of an ongoing attempt to update and upgrade CPTED’s concepts and actions and link them more closely to developments in architecture, design and crime science. The concept of territoriality, for example, is central to the practice domain of CPTED. Yet territoriality is only vaguely defined within that domain, as are the other core concepts such as activity support and target hardening; and all of them confusingly intersect and overlap. The paper attempts a remedy by developing a suite of definitions in depth, relating the core concepts to various frameworks and discourses developed for crime prevention and design against crime, and more generally exploring ways in which CPTED could become richer and more subtle. It will also consider the ‘dark side’ of the environment, covering offenders’ countermoves to prevention and their own counter-exploitation of space, buildings and what they contain. The ultimate intention is to produce a more rigorous, yet deeper and better-integrated conception of CPTED useful for practice, research and theory alike. The paper should be considered as work in progress, indicating what might be possible and stimulating debate rather than offering a definitive resolution of the issue. Further steps are suggested and constructive contributions from readers are invited.     

A validation study for vinyl electrical tape end matches

Fracture matches are considered the strongest conclusion in the forensic examination of rigid materials, such as glass, metal, and paint. However, publications that support the fracture matching of polymeric films, such as tape backings, are limited. This study was designed to determine the validity and error rate associated with conducting end-match (fracture match) examinations on vinyl electrical tape. Test designs varied the source roll of tape, test preparer, or mode of separation from the roll. Results indicated that each affected the resulting severed tape ends. The analysts examining the end matches also had an effect on the results. Eight end matches in the study were not identified by the initial analysts and were considered inconclusive. One end match was misidentified, resulting in one false positive and an error rate of 0.049%. These results support a comprehensive physical and chemical tape comparison regardless of indications of an end match.     

Forensic odontology lessons: multishooting incident at Port Arthur,Tasmania

On Sunday 28 April 1996 a lone gunman killed and injured many people at the historic penal settlement ruins at Port Arthur in South Eastern Tasmania, Australia. Thirty-two victims were shot dead and 19 were injured in a short time inside a cafe and along the roadway leading to the site entrance. The gunman then took one hostage to a nearby guest house which was occupied by a married couple. Police stood siege during the night. Early the next day the cottage began to burn and a man suspected to be the gunman eventually ran unarmed from the building with his clothes alight and was arrested. The house burned to the ground. Three bodies were later located in the burnt ruins. Forensic odontology played a role in the retrieval of evidence and identification of the incinerated victims. Lack of antemortem dental records for one victim necessitated the reliance on a single CT scan radiograph for matching with the remains. Fire scene procedures, evidence collection and other issues were reviewed. The overwhelming scale of this tragedy and its adverse effects on the Tasmanian community, especially the victims' families and survivors, cannot be overestimated. While acknowledging this, it is important that lessons are learnt from tragedies such as these. This paper is presented with a view to assisting forensic odontologists in the investigation of complex incidents.     

Who Fears the HPV Vaccine,Who Doesn’t,and Why? An Experimental Study of the Mechanisms of Cultural Cognition

The cultural cognition thesis holds that individuals form risk perceptions that reflect their commitments to contested views of the good society. We conducted a study that used the dispute over mandatory HPV vaccination to test the cultural cognition thesis. Although public health officials have recommended that all girls aged 11 or 12 be vaccinated for HPV—a sexually transmitted virus that causes cervical cancer—political controversy has blocked adoption of mandatory school-enrollment vaccination programs in all but one state. An experimental study of a large sample of American adults (N = 1,538) found that cultural cognition generates disagreement about the risks and benefits of the vaccine through two mechanisms: biased assimilation, and the credibility heuristic. We discuss theoretical and practical implications.     

The Impact of Imprisonment on Marriage and Divorce: A Risk Set Matching Approach

Marriage has a prominent place in criminological theory and research as one institution that has the potential to genuinely foster desistance from a criminal career. Mass imprisonment policies in the United States and elsewhere, therefore, pose a potential threat of increased crime if they impede the ability of ex-prisoners to reintegrate into society by stigmatizing them and limiting their chances in the marriage market. We use a long-term study of a conviction cohort in The Netherlands to ascertain the effect that first-time imprisonment has on the likelihood of marriage and divorce. The results suggest that the effect of imprisonment on the likelihood of marriage (among unmarried offenders) is largely a selection artifact, although there is very weak evidence for a short-lived impact that does not persist past the first year post-release. This is interpreted as a residual incapacitation effect. On the other hand, the results strongly suggest that the experience of incarceration leads to a substantially higher divorce risk among offenders who are married when they enter prison.     

全球信息保密管理：在网络环境下的跨境信息流

美国隐私权项目与Paul M.Schwartz教授合作形成的《全球信息保密管理：在网络环境下的跨境信息流》报告,基于一系列结构化自我报告案例研究,介绍了六家公司计划及实施跨国个人信息保护的方案,展示了私人企业中国际信息安全的巨大变革,集中表现为三个方面：规模的改变,信息处理的转变,信息管理的转变。该报告提出,要致力于将案例研究与相关信息保护法政策研究有机结合,以寻求新的解决方案,其关键在于重视各项法规的具体实施,以及如何保证强有力的执行。     

What are the Future Prospects for the European Social Model?An Analysis of EU Equal Opportunities and Employment Policy

The aim of our article is to examine the future prospects of the European Social Model (ESM). First, the article defines the ESM as a mixture of hard law, soft law and underlying norms and values. Second, the article analyses the ESM on a more detailed level in the case of the law of equal opportunities and employment through a historical account and the legal dynamics of integration. The results of the analysis indicate a growing integration capacity of the ESM. Yet, this runs counter to the current neoliberal preferences of the Barroso Commission which has moved from a strategy of combining economic growth and social cohesion, to one in which economic growth creates social cohesion.