Effect of testing and social distancing measures on COVID-19 deaths in India: Role of pre-existing socio-economic factors

We examine the effect of testing and social distancing measures on the severity of COVID19 across Indian states during the 68th day nationwide lockdown period. We also explore whether pre-existing socio-economic factors such as quality of health care and the ability to practice social distancing influences the effect of these policy measures across states. Using daily level data between April 1 and May 31 for 18 of the major states, we find that both testing and social distancing have a negative effect on COVID-19 fatalities in India. Further, testing is more helpful in reducing CFR for states with lower per capita health expenditure and weaker medical infrastructure. This highlights how ramping up testing can aid states that have a weak health care system through the detection of infection, contact tracing and isolation. In contrast, social distancing measures are more effective in states that are less populous and have lesser people dwelling in single-room houses. Our results confirm the role of pre-existing institutional factors in shaping the effect of policy actions on health outcomes.