Delayed Prosecutions of Historic Child Sexual Abuse: Analyses of 2064 Canadian Criminal Complaints

Recently, in many English-speaking countries, legal principles that had the effect of barring delayed criminal prosecutions have been abrogated. In these jurisdictions, criminal prosecutions of child sexual abuse that is alleged to have occurred in the distant past (historic child sexual abuse or HCSA) are a growing legal challenge. These cases raise myriad issues relevant to research and the development of public policy that would benefit from a considered exchange of ideas that is informed by a clear understanding of the phenomenon. Based on 2064 judicial decisions of Canadian criminal complaints of HCSA we describe the trial, the complainant, the accused, and the offence. In the context of these legal cases, we raise some of the germane issues as well as suggestions for future research and discussion that we believe are particularly current and pressing.     

An Archival Analysis of Actual Cases of Historic Child Sexual Abuse: A Comparison of Jury and Bench Trials

Logistic regression analyses were used to predict verdicts from 466 Canadian jury and 644 Canadian judge-alone criminal trials involving delayed or historic allegations of child sexual abuse. Variables in regard to the complainant and offence were selected from the legal, clinical, and experimental literatures, including mock juror research. Of six variables that had been related to decisions reached in mock juror research concerning delayed allegations of child sexual abuse (i.e., repressed memory testimony, involvement in therapy, length of delay, age of complainant, presence of experts, and frequency of abuse) two (age of complainant and presence of expert) predicted verdicts. An additional five variables (duration, severity, complainant–accused relationship, threats, and complainant gender) were also examined: of these, threats and the complainant–accused relationship reliably predicted jury verdicts. For judge-alone trials, five variables predicted verdict: length of the delay, offence severity, claims of repression, the relationship between complainant and accused, and presence of an expert. Implications of the jurors' and judges' differential sensitivity to these variables for future simulation and archival research are discussed.     

Airline deregulation: What's behind the recent losses?

The recent disastrous financial performance of the airline industry is probably thought by many to indicate that deregulation is not workable. But simulations suggest that the current recession and the 1979 fuel price increase are primarily to blame. Deregulation has caused transitional losses for some segments of the industry; but the new freedoms accorded to the airlines probably have helped rather than hurt the profitability of the industry.     

ENERGY POLICY: HOW FAILURE WAS SNATCHED FROM THE JAWS OF SUCCESS

Prior to the energy crisis of 1973, the U.S. did not have an energy policy. The failure of the American political system to anticipate and respond to the changing facts of energy was an inevitable outcome of the way policy is made. Consistent with tradition, the search for a consensus was begun from 1973–1980. The U.S. abandoned cheap energy as a high priority and adopted secure, abundant and clean energy. Conservation came to be viewed as a source of energy along with nuclear power and synfuels. Price deregulation was the most important policy tool. The Reagan administration upset this consensus and substituted the market place as the means for maximizing supplies rather than reduce demand.
The federal role was limited to bringing publicly-owned bonds into the marketplace. At the same time, it reduced RED and concern for the environment. Thus, the Reagan administration succeeded in snatching failure from the jaws of success.     

THE IMPLICATIONS OF HIGH LEVELS OF PUBLIC SECTOR DEBT FOR ECONOMIC POLICY-MAKING: THE CASE OF SOUTH AUSTRALIA

Abstract: The relatively small and open South Australian economy has been facing the difficulties associated with the structural adjustment of its industry for over 15 years. In addition, the South Australian public sector has been contending with financial difficulties largely as a result of a reduction in grants from the commonwealth before the failure of the State Bank of South Australia. This paper reviews the growth and current level of government indebtedness in South Australia and discusses which group(s) is likely to bear the main burden of such debt. The main consequences of high levels of state public sector debt, including budgetary inflexibility, are also examined. The paper suggests that it will be necessary for relative wages and prices to adjust more freely if the negative impacts of an inevitable state government budgetary consolidation are to be minimised. If wages and prices are not free to adjust then unemployment will continue to take the brunt of the adjustment process. In addition, out-migration of businesses and people from South Australia will accelerate, leading to a further erosion of the taxation base. The State Bank indemnity arrangements and consequent levels of public sector debt incurred will require the state government to reduce the level and quality of services provided by the state public sector, sell state public sector assets and further improve efficiency and effectiveness. However, there are a number of important arguments why taxation should be an important means by which the South Australian government moves to retire public sector debt as soon as practicable. Not the least important of these arguments is the need to ensure accountability by elected representatives of government for their expenditure decisions.     

Witnessing-Condition Heterogeneity and Witnesses' Versus Investigators' Confidence in the Accuracy of Witnesses' Identification Decisions

Undergraduate participants were tested in 144 pairs, with one member of each pair randomly assigned to a witness role and the other to an :investigator role. Each witness viewed a target person on video under good or poor witnessing conditions and was then interviewed by an investigator, who administered a photo lineup and rated his or her confidence in the witness. Witnesses also (separately) rated their own confidence. Investigators discriminated between accurate and inaccurate witnesses, but did so less well than witnesses' own confidence ratings and were biased toward accepting witnesses' decisions. Moreover, investigators' confidence made no unique contribution to the prediction of witnesses' accuracy. Witnesses' confidence and accuracy were affected in the same direction by witnessing conditions, and there was a substantial confidence–accuracy correlation when data were collapsed across witnessing conditions. Confidence can be strongly indicative of accuracy when witnessing conditions vary widely, and witnesses' confidence may be a better indicator than investigators'