The political economy of the peace dividend

We develop a model of the peace dividend and use it to predict the fiscal consequences of a reduction in the demand for military spending. The model is based on the assumption that the political process responds to political demands and costs in a way that maximizes net political benefits. The predictions of our model on how a peace dividend will be allocated over nonmilitary spending, tax relief, and deficit reduction is tested against the experience of eight major wars in United States history.     

Age Adjustment and Recall Bias in the Analysis of Domestic Violence Data: Methodological Improvements Through the Application of Survival Analysis Methods

This methodological paper presents the utility of survival analysis methods to provide age adjustment in the analysis of domestic violence data. These methods improve the estimation of lifetime probability of domestic violence, improve identification of patterns of first victimization over the lifespan, and provide methods of testing risk factors for first victimization while adjusting for the respondents' age. Most importantly, these methods allow a new investigation of recall bias. Results suggest that lifetime probability of abuse may have been substantially underestimated in previous studies because of problems in recall/disclosure encountered by middle-aged women.     

Examining the empirical relationship between prison crowding and inmate misconduct: A meta-analysis of conflicting research results

Incarceration rates in the United States dramatically increased over the past several decades. This trend has drawn significant academic attention to prison overcrowding and its potential effect on inmate misconduct. The empirical relationship between inmate misconduct and overcrowding, however, is less than clear. To be sure, studies indicating positive, negative, and null relationships can all be found in the literature. The current research subjects this body of literature to a meta-analysis in an effort to: (1) clarify the direction and strength of the relationship between overcrowding and rates of prison misconduct across all studies, and (2) to uncover the degree to which variation in research outcomes can be attributed to methodological differences across studies. Results indicate that prison crowding has little substantive impact on inmate misconduct. Implications of the findings are discussed in detail.     

A Test of Generalizability of the Social Development Model Across Gender and Income Groups with Longitudinal Data from the Elementary School Developmental Period

The social development model (SDM) is a theory of behavior that has proven useful in explaining the etiology of delinquency, violence, and substance use among adolescents as well as early antisocial behavior among pre-adolescents. A further test of the model is its generalizability across population groups. A section of the SDM representing prosocial influences in the etiology of problem behavior was compared for boys and girls and for children from low- and non low-income families using three waves of child, parent and teacher survey data on a sample of 851 elementary school students. Multiple group structural equation modeling was used to assess differences across groups in both measurement of model constructs and hypothesized structural paths between constructs. The results indicate overall similarity in the reliability of measurement models and validity of structural models.