The restructuring process in central and Eastern Europe: Business strategies for EC companies

The completion of the EC Single Market and the opening of Central and Eastern Europe constitute major changes in the European business environment which challenge companies to develop new business strategies. The Single Market will be one marketplace, but Central and Eastern Europe has to be treated completely differently, in some respects on a country‐by‐country basis. Based on personal interviews with Eastern European business people, this article describes and analyses the opportunities for EC companies. On the basis of this analysis a business strategy for Central and Eastern Europe is outlined.     

Using ARIMA models to predict prison populations

In this study a time-series model for predicting Louisiana's prison population was developed using the iterative Box-Jenkins modeling methodologyidentification, estimation, and diagnostic checking. The time-series forecasts were contrasted with results of regression models and an exponential smoothing model. The results indicate that the time-series model is the superior model as indicated by the usual measures of predictive accuracy. When compared with actual data the predictions appeared sufficiently adequate to meet the needs of the correctional system for short-term planning.     

The parole performance of offenders released from shock incarceration (boot camp prisons): A survival time analysis

The parole performance of offenders who were released after successfully completing a shock incarceration program was examined and compared to the performance of offenders who were serving time on probation or parole after a period of incarceration. Separate survival analyses were performed for recidivism as measured by (1) arrests and (2) failures (jailed, absconded, or revoked). Prior incarceration, age, age at first arrest, and risk assessment score were related to recidivism but type of sentence was not. Intensity of supervision was significantly related to recidivism but this relationship was eliminated when risk level was controlled. There was no evidence that shock incarceration reduces recidivism. Future research should focus on methods of reducing failures during community supervision for these young, nonviolent offenders within the framework of either a shock incarceration program or some other sentence.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the American Probation and Parole Association 14th Annual Training Institute, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, August 1989.     

Perceived Conditions of Confinement: A National Evaluation of Juvenile Boot Camps and Traditional Facilities

In a national study of juvenile correctional facilities, the perceived environment of 22 juvenile boot camps was compared to the perceived environment of 22 traditional facilities. Self-report surveys completed by 4,121 juveniles recorded information on demographics, risk factors, and perceptions of the facility's environment. Compared to juveniles in traditional correctional facilities, boot camp residents consistently perceived the environment as significantly more controlled, active, and structured, and as having less danger from other residents. Boot camp juveniles also perceived the environment as providing more therapeutic and transitional programming. Overall, from the perspective of the juveniles, boot camps appear to provide a more positive environment conducive to effective rehabilitation considering almost allof the conditions measured. A major concern is that in both types of facilities, juveniles perceived themselves to occasionally be in danger from staff (rated as rarely to sometimes).