Narcotics use,property crime,and dealing: Structural dynamics across the addiction career

Structural-equation modeling is used to test causal relationships between narcotics addiction and the associated cost-support activities of property crime and drug dealing across four critical periods of the addiction career. It is argued that structural-equation methodology yields greater insight into the causal dynamics of such activities than the typical methodologies of comparing means and proportions. Using structural coefficients of longitudinal models to infer causal relationships and stability, it is found that (1) dealing is often a predictor of future narcotics involvement; (2) narcotics use, property crime, and dealing are mutually interrelated during periods of elevated narcotics use and are not related during periods of reduced narcotics use; (3) dealing appears to be the most stable of the three variables, although narcotics use and property crime show appreciable stability as well; and (4) property crime and dealing appear to be inversely related to a moderate extent. The relevance of these findings to the understanding of the economic behavior of addicts during the initiation and cessation of addiction, relapse, and maturing out is discussed.     

Between knowledge and politics: Three faces of policy analysis

Various conceptual schemes have been employed to make sense of the diverse policy literature. Attempting to understand policy analysis in terms of its political and historical significance, this essay points to three distinct faces, distinguished with regard to differing relationships between knowledge and politcs: one where knowledge purports to replace politics, one where politics masquerades as knowledge, and one where knowledge and politics attain a measure of reconciliation. Historically, these three faces may be viewed, to an extent, as periods in the development of policy analysis: from positivism, to its critique, to present post-positivist efforts.     

A proposed system of program and policy evaluation

Abstract. The objective of this paper is to outline a conceptual framework which integrates and renders operational the govemmenal decision-making functions of policy and program evaluation, strategic planning, and pnon problem identification. Meeting this objective involves three tasks: (1) identifying ministerial goals and classdying those with similar characteristics into ‘goal areas’ (2) specifying statistical indicators suitable for measuring the extent to which particular goals are being realized, and estimating values for these goal achievement indicators assuming no change in policy; (3) identifying policy instruments that affect goals, and estimating changes in goal achievement indicators associated with changes in these instruments. Sommaire. Le préent document a pour but d'exposer un cadre de travail con-ceptuel qui intègre et rend opérationnelles les fonctions gouvemementales de prise de décisions, c'est-à-dire I'évaluation des programmes et des politiques, la planification à long terme et le repérage des problèmes prioritaires. La réalisation de cet objectif comporte trois tâhes: (1) identifier les ob'ectif s du ministère et classer ceux qui sont semblables en ‘groupes d'objectifs’ 12) isoler des indi-cateurs statistiques apes à mesurer jusqu'à quel point les objectifs sont réalisés et accorder me valeur estimative à ces indicateurs en supposant que les plitiques ne changent as; (3) repérer les instruments de politique qui influent sur les objectifs et évaluer les changements dans les indicateurs de réalisation des objectifs reliés aux changements dans ces instruments.     

Book reviews

Jan Marczewski, Crisis in Socialist Planning. Eastern Europe and the USSR. Translated from the French by Noel Lindsay. (Praeger Special Studies in International Economics and Development.) New York: Praeger Publishers and London: Pall Mall Press, 1974. xvii+245 pp. £8.00.

Alec Nove, Stalinism and After. London: Allen & Unwin, 1975. 205pp. £4.74, or £2.35 (paperback).

John Erickson, The Road to Stalingrad. Volume 1 of Stalin's War with Germany. London: Weidenfeld & Nicholson, 1975. x+594 pp. £12.00.

Henry W. Morton and Rudolf L. Tökés (eds.), Soviet Politics and Society in the 1970s. New York: The Free Press and London: Collier Macmillan Publishers, 1974. xxvi+401 pp. £6.50.

Dodd L. Harvey and Linda C. Ciccoritti, U.S.‐Soviet Cooperation in Space. Coral Gables, Fla: Center for Advanced International Studies, University of Miami, 1974. xxxiii+382 pp. Paperback.

T. Dixon Long and Christopher Wright (eds.), Science Policies of Industrial Nations: Case Studies of the United States, Soviet Union, United Kingdom, France, Japan and Sweden. Praeger Special Studies in International Politics and Government. New York: Praeger, 1975. xiii+232 pp.

Roy E. H. Mellor, Eastern Europe: A Geography of the Comecon Countries. London: Macmillan Press, 1975. x+358 pp. £7.50 or £3.95 (Paperback).

Bogdan Mieczkowski, Personal and Social Consumption in Eastern Europe: Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, and East Germany. Praeger Special Studies in International Economics and Development. New York: Praeger Publishers, 1975. xxiv+342 pp. $21.50.

Gerhard Wettig, Community and Conflict in the Socialist Camp: The Soviet Union, East Germany and the German Problem 1965–1972. Translated by Edwina Moreton and Hannes Adomeit. London: C. Hurst, 1975. xiv+161 pp. £6.30.

Kurt Sontheimer and Wilhelm Bleek, The Government and Politics of East Germany. Translated by Ursula Price. London: Hutchinson University Library, 1975. 205 pp.

Allen H. Barton, Bogdan Denitch and Charles Kadushin (eds.), Opinion‐Making Elites in Yugoslavia. Praeger Special Studies in International Politics and Government. New York: Praeger and London: Pall Mall Press, 1973. xxii+344 pp. £7.75.

Sharon Zukin, Beyond Marx and Tito. Theory and Practice in Yugoslav Socialism. London: Cambridge UP, 1975. x+302 pp. £7.50.

Ervin Pamlényi (ed.), A History of Hungary. Wellingborough: Collet's, 1975. (Published in Hungary, edited under the auspices of the Historical Institute of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences.) 676 pp. £4.95.

Peter J. Potichnyj (ed.), Ukraine in the Seventies. (Papers and Proceedings of the McMaster Conference on Contemporary Ukraine, October 1974.) Oakville, Ontario: Mosaic Press, 1975. 355 pp. $12.95 or $6.95 (paperback).

Leon Trotsky, The Challenge of the Left Opposition (1923–25). Edited and with an introduction by Naomi Allen. New York: Pathfinder Press, 1975. 428 pp. $15.00. $3.95 or £1.65 (paperback).

Frank Haller, Sozialistische Akkumulations‐ und Wachstumstheorie. Zur Kritik der politischen Ökonomie des Sozialismus in der DDR. Berlin: Osteuropa‐Institut an der Freien Universität Berlin, 1974. In Kommission bei Verlag Duncker & Humblot, Berlin. 192 pp. DM 62.