影响农民工职业稳定性的分析框架与实证研究

在城市政府为农民工提供越来越多、更加公平的公共服务的同时,"招工难"现象却并未因此减少。在对"招工难"现象的解读中,供给总量的增速减缓是一个方面,农民工职业的高流动性也不容忽视,因为农民工的频繁流动不仅造成企业用工成本增加,而且因摩擦性失业的上升放大了市场用工的紧缺现象。本文在基础理论和相关文献研究的基础上,初步拟定了一个影响农民工职业稳定的分析框架,拟从个体特征、经济水平、流动经历和职业满意度四个方面测量具有显著性的影响因素。本文的研究结论表明,新一代农民工教育程度有所提高,形成了较高的求职期望,但农民工难以从提高的教育投资中获得物质利益,因而职业流动性增强,流动经历没有对农民工的职业稳定性产生惯性的持续影响。与客观的工资水平相比,主观的工作发展、工作待遇和工作条件满意度才会对职业稳定性产生显著正效应,且尤以工作发展满意度最为重要。     

刑法中赌债的认定

刑法中的赌债行使时与合法债权一样构成排除一定刑事责任的正当化事由,具有合法债权消极意义上的功能,不同于民法上赌债不具有债的法律关系,即赌债非债的性质。刑法中赌债的认定应从赌博射悻法律行为的性质出发,必须具有参与赌博的意思表示,符合赌博本身的偶然性质,方才构成赌博,成立赌债。     

博士学位点区域发展差异与趋势研究——基于2005年至2011年追踪数据的实证分析

通过构建基于博士学位点发展情况的我国区域博士学位点发展模型,并运用多层线性模型(HLM)分析技术对我国31个省份(直辖市或者自治区,以下简称31个省份)博士学位点(二级学科)在2005-2011年期间的发展情况展开追踪研究。实证分析结果显示:第一,我国博士学位点的发展情况表现出显著的区域差异性;第二,区域博士学位点的总体发展趋势表现出线性增长的特点;第三,各省经济发展水平对博士学位点的发展存在显著影响;第四,除了经济发展水平的影响外,还存在其他因素影响区域博士学位点的发展情况。     

Which Institutions are Good for Your Health? The Deep Determinants of Comparative Cross-country Health Status

We extend the literature on the deep determinants of economic development by focusing on life expectancy, instead of income per capita, as an indicator of economic development, and by examining the role of informal, as well as formal, institutions. Our empirical results suggest that formal and informal institutions are substitutes. Improving informal institutions has positive effects on life expectancy that are statistically significant for most countries and stronger than the effects of improving formal institutions. The gains from improving informal institutions are greatest for countries in which institutions are weakest. Geographical factors also help explain cross-country variation in life expectancy.     

Problems of Northern Iraq

General

Public and Private. By Humphrey Trevelyan. London, Hamish Hamilton, 1980. Pp. viii + 199. Intro. Index. £8.95.

Tents. Architecture of the Nomads. By Torvald Faegre. London, John Murray, 1979. Pp. vi+167. Sources. Maps. Illus. Bibliog. £3.95 (paperback).

The Periplus of the Erythraean Sea. Translated from the Greek and edited by G. W. B. Huntingford. London, Hakluyt Society (Second Series No. 151), 1980 for 1976. Pp. xiv+225. Illus. Maps. Pref. Intro. Notes. Appendices. Bibliog. Indexes. £12.00 (hardback).

Middle East

Democracy and Development in Turkey. By C. H. Dodd. Beverley, N. Humber‐side, The Eothen Press, 1979. Pp. 231. Pref. Notes. Bibliog. Index. £4.95 (paperback).

Russia and Iran, 1780–1820. By Muriel Atkin. University of Minnesota Press, 1980. pp. xii+216. Pref. Maps. Notes. Bibliog. Index. $20.00 (hardback).

Pasture and Politics: Economics, conflict and ritual among Shahsevan nomads of northwestern Iran. By Richard Tapper. London, Academic Press, 1979. Pp. xvi+312. Illus. Index. Appendixes. Gloss. £17.00 (hardback).

South Asia

India's Rural Development; An Assessment of Alternatives. By Marcus Franda. Bloomingdale, Indiana University Press, 1980. Pp. xi+366. Pref. Notes. Index. £10.50 (hardback).

Land, Landlords, and the British Raj; Northern India in the Nineteenth Century. By Thomas R. Metcalf. Berkeley &; Los Angeles, California, University of California Press, 1979. Pp. xiv+436. Pref. Illus. Charts. Tables. Maps. Appendices. Gloss. Bibliog. Index. £13.50.

The Scope of Happiness; a Personal Memoir. By Vijaya Lakshmi Pandit. London, Weidenfeld &; Nicolson, 1979. Pp. xvii+333. Foreword. Gloss. Index. £8.95 (hardback).

Planning for Industrialization: industrialization and trade policies since 1951. By Jagdish Bhagwati and Padma Desai. Delhi, Oxford University Press, 1980. Pp. xx+537. Pref. Tables. Bibliog. Index. £3.95 (paperback).

Race, Sex and Class under the Raj: Imperial Attitudes and Policies and their Critics, 1793–1905. By Kenneth Ballhatchet. London, Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 1980. Pp. viii + 199. Pref. Intro. Illus. Notes. Bibliog. Gloss. Index. £9.50 (hardback).

USSR

The Russian Empire; A Portrait in Photographs. By Chloe Obolensky with an introduction by Max Hayward. London, Jonathan Cape, 1980. Pp. xvii+346. Pref. Intro. Illus. Note. £9.95 (hardback).

Shamanism in Siberia. Edited by V. Diószegi &; M. Hoppál. Translated from the Russian and Hungarian by S. Simon. Budapest, Akademiai Kiadó, 1978. Distributed by Collets in U.K. Pp. 532. Illus. Intro. Index. £26.60. (hardback).

Central Asia

Grosser Pamir (Osterreichisches Forschungsunternehmen 1975 in den Wakhan‐Pamir/Afghanistan). Herausgegeben von Roger Senarclens de Grancy und Robert Koska. Graz, Austria, Akademische Druck ‐ und Verlagsanstalt, 1978. Pp. 400. Index. Colour Illus. Line‐drawings. Maps. Bibliog.

South‐East Asia

ASEAN Economies in Perspective; A Comparative Study of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. By John Wong. London, The Macmillan Press, 1979. Pp. xii+217. Pref. Maps. Tables. Notes. Index. £8.95 (hardback) £3.95 (paperback).

Burmese Sit‐Tans 1764–1826: Records of Rural Life and Administration. By Frank N. Trager and William J. Koenig, with the assistance of Yi Yi. Translations by William J. Koenig. (The Association for Asian Studies: Monograph No. XXXVI.) Tucson, Arizona, the University Press of Arizona, 1979. Pp. xvii+440. Index. Appendix. Bibliog. $5.95.

Three Malay Villages; a Sociology of Paddy Growers in West Malaysia. Edited by Masuo Kuchiba, Yoshihiro Tsubouchi and Narifumi Maeda. Translated by Peter and Stephanie Hawkes. (Monographs of the Center for Southeast Asian Studies, Kyoto University, English Language Series No. 14.) Honolulu, The University Press of Hawaii, 1980. Pp. xxii + 356. Maps, diagrams. Pref. Appendix. Bibliog. Index. $13.00 (paperback).

Perak, the Abode of Grace; A Study of an Eighteenth‐Century Malay State. By Barbara Watson Andaya. Kuala Lumpur, Oxford University Press, 1979. Pp. xviii+444. Intro. Maps. Tables. Appendices. Bibliog. Gloss. Index. £14.95.

A Stroll Through Borneo. By James Barclay. London, Hodder and Stoughton, 1980. Pp. 224. Intro. Gloss. £6.95.

Far East

Politics and Purges in China. By Frederick C. Teiwes. Folkestone, Kent, Dawson Publishing, 1979. Pp. xiii+730. Notes. Bibliog. Index. £15.00. (hardback).

Value Change in Chinese Society. Edited by R. W. Wilson, Amy Auerbacher and S. L. Greenblatt. New York and Eastbourne UK, Praeger Publishers, 1979. Pp. xiii+309. Pref. Tables. Figs. Gloss. Index. Bibliog. Refs. £14.00 (hardback).

The Medieval Japanese Daimyo; The Ouchi Family's Rule of Suo &; Nagato. By Peter Judd Arnesen. New Haven &; London, Yale University Press, 1979. Pp. 246. Bibliog. Index. Map. £11.00.

Old Madam Yin. A Memoir of Peking Life; 1926–1938. By Ida Pruitt. Stanford California, Stanford University Press. 1979. Pp. ix+129. Intro. Illus. $8.95 (hardback).

Japan; The Past in the Present. By R. S. Milward with an introduction by G. C. Allen. Tenterden, Kent, Paul Norbury Publications, 1980. Pp. xi + 132. Intro. Foreword. Index. £4.95 (hardback).

Medical Ethics in Imperial China. A Study in Historical Anthropology. By Paul U. Unschuld. Berkeley, Los Angeles, London, University of California Press, 1979. Pp. vii+141. Pref. Illus. Gloss. Bibliog. Index. £8.50.

Shorter Notices

Feminism and Socialism in China. By Elizabeth Croll. London, Boston and Henley‐on‐Thames, Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1980. Pp. xi+363. Acks. Intro. Notes. Index. £3.95 (paperback).

Scholars' Guide to Washington, D.D. for East Asian Students. By Hong M. Kim. Washington, D.C. Smithsonian Institution Press, 1979. Pp. xiv + 413. Intro. Bibliog. Indexes. $ 19.95 (cloth) $ 8.95 (paper).     

20世纪50年代美国东南亚区域经济合作政策的演变

20世纪50年代是美国开始构建其对东南亚区域经济合作政策的起始阶段。这一政策缘起于美国政府自身所具有的强烈冷战意识,其区域经济合作构想的几度勃兴都与东南亚冷战局势的变化有关。由于受制于自身为解决财政赤字问题而采取的财政保守主义政策,美国政府不愿因为东南亚国家经济发展问题而扩大自身的财政开支,这令美国推动的东南亚区域经济合作效果不彰。这一矛盾不仅决定了当时美国对东南亚区域经济合作政策的起伏,而且对今天美国的相关实践也依然产生着影响。     

Surveillance to Combat Terrorist Financing in Europe: Whose Liberty,Whose Security?

Abstract

This article analyses recent developments in the campaign to combat terrorist financing in Europe and questions the utility of financial surveillance as a method to counter terrorism. A background presentation of surveillance in modern society is followed by an overview of earlier international initiatives to interdict money laundering. The measures used to combat terrorist finance are built upon this foundation of surveillance and criminal investigation. Applying these measures in the ‘war on terror’ has unintended consequences for the financial transactions of citizens and non-citizens alike. The article concludes by considering these problems and their impact on society within the context of a larger concern for the impact to individual liberty from these surveillance practices in pursuit of security in the early twenty-first century.     

Struggling on the World Scene: An Over-ambitious EU versus a Committed Iran

Abstract

In 2003, the EU was hopeful to convince Iran to give up its nuclear programme. Five years later, most signals point to an accelerated nuclear programme in Iran. This article first aims to sketch an overview of the EU efforts, and secondly to make an interim assessment of the effectiveness of the EU's approach vis-à-vis Iran. While the final assessment may be different, the current evaluation is disappointing from the point of view of the EU. The Iranian case does not enhance the EU's strategic reputation in the world.     

中越贸易人民币结算模式问题研究

目前,“地摊银行”结算占据中越边境贸易结算的主导地位,而一般贸易结算很大程度上还需要借助美元来完成整个操作流程。本文基于结算模式视角,具体探析中越贸易结算状况,提出“现行结算模式不是标准化的模式”这一观点。结合近年推出的人民币跨境贸易结算进程,从短期看,可以考虑建立中越货币自由兑换试验区;从中长期看,需要建立统一、高效的中越双边清算体系,进一步提升人民币的竞争力并逐步实行人民币自由兑换,从而推进人民币在东盟的区域化。     

中俄能源合作的现状、影响因素及意义分析

俄罗斯是能源生产大国,中国是能源消费大国,加之两国地理上毗邻,能源合作具有很强的互补性和地缘优势,合作潜力巨大。中俄能源合作在过去十多年里取得了一些重要的进展,但两国能源合作的潜力与现实之间还存在较大的差距。能源合作是中俄战略协作伙伴关系的重要内容,加强和扩大两国的能源合作有利于增进两国的战略互信,扩大两国的经贸合作,加强两国的能源安全。石油和天然气是中俄能源合作的重点,中俄原油管道已经建成并正式运营,而天然气合作的谈判正处于攻坚阶段。目前推动两国能源合作的力量大于阻碍的力量,双边能源合作中的摩擦更多属于商业性质,中俄有望在深度磨合中持续释放能源合作的巨大潜力。