A Classification Tree Approach to the Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools

Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.     

Discrepancy between CYP2D6 phenotype and genotype derived from post-mortem dextromethorphan blood level

OBJECTIVE: To describe the death of a toddler after a therapeutic dose of dextromethorphan and its investigation. STUDY DESIGN: Case report, cytochrome P450 phenotype and genotype determination in the victim and post-mortem drug redistribution study performed in rats. RESULTS: A 20-month Asian male who received 3 mg of dextromethorphan once at 09:00 h and again at 22:00 h was found dead at 04:35 h. Post-mortem examination showed signs of early bronchopneumonia (bacterial cultures were negative); dextromethorphan and dextrorphan blood concentrations taken from the heart cavity were 500 ng/ml (1. 84 micromol/l) and 200 ng/ml (0.78 micromol/l), respectively. Despite the dextromethorphan level being almost 100-fold higher than expected after therapeutic doses, intentional or unintentional overdose was extremely unlikely; other potential causes were investigated. Post-mortem drug redistribution study performed in rats showed that dextromethorphan does not undergo extensive redistribution after death (6+/-5-fold increase) and could not explain the observed dextromethorphan level. The dextromethorphan/dextrorphan concentration ratio of 2.5 found in this toddler was compatible with a slow CYP2D6 metabolizer phenotype. However, the toddler exhibited a fast metabolizer genotype. Potential reasons for this discrepancy are discussed. CONCLUSION: CYP450 phenotypes derived from post-mortem blood levels should be interpreted with caution and preferably confirmed by a genotype analysis.     

Segmental analysis for cocaine and metabolites by HPLC in hair of suspected drug overdose cases

Hair samples of eight postmortem cases were analyzed in segments of 1 to 3 cm for cocaine, benzoylecgonine and cocaethylene. Samples were prepared for analysis by digestion in 0.1 M HCl and subsequent extraction with mixed-mode solid-phase extraction columns. Measurement was made by reversed-phase, narrow-bore HPLC and fluorescence detection using two laboratory-made internal standards. The concentrations were in the region of 0.29-316 ng/mg of hair for cocaine, 0.43-141 ng/mg of hair for benzoylecgonine and 0.93-1.83 ng/mg of hair for cocaethylene. All eight investigated cases had cocaine-positive segments. In six of the cases, all segments were positive, suggesting regular cocaine use and two showed in-between negative segments indicating an interruption or a change of the abuse intensity. The results showed a second, remarkable observation, i.e. enormous concentration differences (factor >150) for both cocaine and benzoylecgonine between the different subjects. Furthermore, interindividual cocaine/benzoylecgonine ratios ranged from 0.02 to 8.43. We believe these observations could in part be attributed to both some of the still existing limitations in the analytical approach(es), especially the mandatory hair washing steps, and in our still too limited knowledge of the hair incorporation processes. Nevertheless, in some cases, segmental analysis proved to be an important tool to distinguish, together with postmortem examination, deadly chronic abuse from single acute drug overdosage.     

The statistical variability of blood alcohol concentration measurements in drink-driving cases

Like many other places in the world, Hong Kong has drink-driving legislation which prohibits a driver from having in his blood alcohol exceeding a prescribed limit while in control of a motor vehicle. The accuracy of measuring this alcohol concentration is obviously of prime concern as an erroneous result can avert the administration of justice. The common practice is to deduct all errors from the measured value and compare the deducted value with the prescribed limit, so that the benefit of all errors of the measurement is given to the driver. It is therefore important for any laboratory responsible for measuring blood alcohol concentrations to identify and quantify all errors associated with the measurement. The present study examined 900 blood alcohol determinations carried out by the Hong Kong Government Laboratory (HKGL) on cases of suspected drink driving. The determinations were performed by 5 different analysts with two different sets of instruments during 1995-1997. Statistical analysis indicated that the instruments had no bearing on the random error or variability and that even though analyst was a significant factor on variability, the deviation from the mean so caused was only 0.3% and of no practical significance. When the systematic error introduced by the tolerance limits of the certified alcohol standards (purchased from the Laboratory of Government Chemists, UK) was taken into account, the total uncertainty (random plus systematic errors) of an alcohol determination at 99.5% confidence level was found to be 4%. It is recommended that laboratories engaged in blood alcohol determination should adopt similar statistical treatment of their analytical results to find out the error and to ensure that the results are independent of analyst and instrument used.     

An insurer's perspective on reform

Individual health insurance markets differ from state to state, and as a result approaches to individual market reforms need to be different. In evaluating approaches, policy makers need to remember that since the decision to purchase health insurance coverage is voluntary, the potential for adverse selection exists. In addition, rather than putting the focus of individual market reforms almost exclusively on access to health insurance for a small number of persons with high-cost health conditions, more attention needs to be put on how to decrease the number of uninsured persons. This includes making the premiums paid for individual health insurance 100 percent tax deductible, similar to those of employer-based health insurance. Finally, market reforms need to treat all types of coverage issued in the individual market the same, whether they are purchased direct for the insurer or through an out-of-state association.     

Selenium determination in mother and child's hair by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry

A method for the selenium determination in a mother and her child's hair using palladium as a chemical modifier was optimized. The sample was digested with nitric acid and hydrogen peroxide and diluted to 5 ml. To achieve complete mineralization the samples were ashed at 1200 degrees C in the presence of palladium as a chemical modifier. The optimum atomization temperature was 1900 degrees C. The precision and accuracy of the method were studied using the reference material CRM 397. Results of calibration using aqueous standards and the standard addition method were compared. The method was applied to the selenium determination in 30 samples of the mother's and child's hair. The levels found were 0.54 +/- 0.34 microgram/g for mother's hair and 0.77 +/- 0.25 microgram/g for child's hair.     

The use of supercritical fluid extraction for the determination of amphetamines in hair

A laboratory study interested in the analysis of human hair for drugs-of-abuse was conducted to determine if drugs could be detected and quantified from hair. Supercritical fluid extraction (SFE) techniques followed by GC-MS analysis were applied to extract amphetamines from hair. The group of amphetamines included methylenedioxyamphetamine (MDA), methylenedioxymetamphetamine (MDMA), methylenedioxyethylamphetamine (MDEA) and internal standard mephentermine (MP). To validate information on amphetamine use in hair, powdered hair samples free from drugs were collected and soaked in a known amphetamine standard solution. Authentic fortified case hair samples taken from known drug users known to have consumed amphetamines were also analyzed for amphetamine. Results from this study show that amphetamine use can be detected in spiked and authentic fortified human hair using SFE techniques for qualitative and quantitative reproducible results.