Attrition in the new beneficiary survey and followup, and its correlates

Panel surveys interview the same individuals more than once over a period of time. Attrition from the survey occurs when those individuals die, refuse to be interviewed again, or, for some other reason, cannot be contacted. If the original sample was representative of a specific population, then survey analysis may provide misleading conclusions about changes in population characteristics over time if these individuals leave the sample in a nonrandom way. Therefore, it is important to identify the characteristics of individuals who leave the survey for various reasons. This article explores the extent of and reasons for attrition in the New Beneficiary Survey (NBS) between the first interview in 1982 and the followup interview in 1991. Presented is a comparison of the characteristics of survivors (the reinterviewed sample) with attriters (those in the sample not reinterviewed) from the retired-worker and disabled-worker samples. The article explores a variety of potential determinants of attrition to the probability of attrition. These determinants are examined alone and in a multivariate framework. The NBS sample population is drawn from and linked to Social Security Administrative records, which have exact matched data on mortality as a cause of attrition. These data do not depend on survey-reported reasons for attrition; hence, it allows the examination of the differences in the patterns and predictors of attrition due to death and due to other reasons, primarily, the refusal to be interviewed. Attrition due to death must be identified precisely because misidentification of death as refusal to be interviewed may lead researchers to infer more selective attrition than might be the case. Different patterns of attrition are evident in the comparison of attrition levels and the determinants of attrition for the retired and disabled samples, both composed of persons with relatively high mortality risk. In particular, individuals' health, health insurance coverage, and level of education have different impacts on their likelihood of attrition. In general, it appears that refusal to be interviewed is more evenly spread across populations and characteristics than is death. The analysis shows that attrition due to death and attrition due to refusal are quite different processes, even though health conditions play a role in both processes. The results suggest that because attrition patterns (including death) may be quite different across population samples, sample-specific attrition patterns must be analyzed over the lifetime of any panel study. Long-term studies of panel attrition are necessary to provide researchers analyzing the data with information on potential biases due to nonrandom attrition.     

Shi’i division over the Iraqi state: decentralization and the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq

ABSTRACT

This article traces the evolving political platform of one of Iraq’s oldest and most powerful Shi’i political parties, the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI). Drawing on an analysis of 15 years of primary materials produced by ISCI, it focuses principally on their promotion of decentralization as a path towards peace and stability in Iraq. However, the article also traces the origins of a deep schism that emerged within ISCI between the movement’s old guard who were beholden to the Iranian regime and their model of vilāyat-i faqīh, and the youth-led Iraqi nationalist faction who wanted to see the instalment of a civil government without religious oversight. The article demonstrates that this division is indicative of a theological debate between Shi’i religious scholars over differing interpretations of the role of Shi’ism in politics. The article concludes by arguing that understanding the extent to which such esoteric religious debates manifest themselves politically is crucial to interpreting divisions within Shi’ism not just in Iraq, but across the broader Middle East.     

Cross-state learning and service delivery in India’s federal system

ABSTRACT

This paper attempts to place the issue of cross-state learning and borrowing experiences in service delivery in India in the specific context of political incentives in India’s federal democracy as well relating it to the findings of the comparative literature on subnational policy diffusion in federal systems. It presents four types of borrowing experiences from a selection of six case studies of the past few years, and point towards ways in which learning/borrowing across states can be usefully incorporated into policy.     

A new individualization marker of semen: deoxyribonuclease I (DNase I) polymorphism.

We describe a method for obtaining specific and reproducible deoxyribonuclease I (DNase I) typing from liquid semen. Isoelectric focusing of the enzymes on polyacrylamide gel (IEF-PAGE, pH 3.5-5) was accomplished using a 0.5-mm thick gel. The separated isozymes were visualized by a new activity staining method, dried agarose film-overlay (DAFO). Pretreatment of semen samples with neuraminidase markedly enhanced the isozyme-band resolution and sensitivity. The method was simple and reliable, with high resolution and sensitivity. The DNase I types in semen samples were correlated with the types found in corresponding blood and urine samples. DNase I typing could therefore provide an additional discriminant characteristic in the forensic examination of semen.     

Children in poverty: A committee prepares for an informed debate

By gathering and disseminating information, members of the Committee on Ways and Means, and committee staff under their supervision, have played an important role in informing the debate on poverty issues during the 1980s. In the face of President Reagan's 1981 budget program, which reduced spending in the major antipoverty programs, committee members targeted substantial resources to an ongoing, albeit ad hoc, education process. The process has not only provided evidence of the adverse impact of the 1981 reductions on the poor, but has also made new contributions to the understanding of poverty. Although many other factors have contributed to outcomes in poverty policy during the 1980s, it is clear that this education process played an important role in the successes achieved thus far; partial reversal of the 1981 reductions has been achieved, tax changes have been implemented which help low-income families, and a welfare reform bill has been enacted.     

Perceptions of repressed memories: A reappraisal

College students read a trial summary of a sexual abuse case. The victim in the case either claimed that (a) her memory for the abuse had been repressed for 20 years and only recently recovered during therapy, or (b) she consciously remembered the abuse for 20 years but never discussed it until recently in therapy. Participants were significantly more likely to convict the defendant when the testimony was described as nonrepressed (67%) versus repressed (58%). This effect was not modified by the age of the victim at the time the alleged abuse occurred (either 3, 8, or 13 years of age), although the younger and older victims were significantly less believable than the 8-year-old victim. Compared to female participants, male participants were significantly less likely to convict the defendant and rated the victim as significantly less believable. These findings are discussed in the context of recent research on juror reactions to repressed memory testimony.