Counterterror intelligence operations and terror attacks

We present a formal model of an intelligence agency that must divide its resources between the collection and analysis of information pertaining to terror plots. The model highlights the negative consequences of queues which form when collection exceeds analytic capacity. We incorporate the response of a terrorist organization to the operating characteristics of the intelligence system it faces, and solve for equilibrium strategies for the intelligence system and terrorist organization. Our results demonstrate the importance of properly balancing resources between collection and analysis, and stand in contrast to the observed state of overcollection in US intelligence agencies.     

Unicorns or Tiger Woods: Are Lie Detection Experts Myths or Rarities? A Response to On Lie Detection “Wizards” by Bond and Uysal

Bond and Uysal (this issue) complain that expert lie detectors identified by O'Sullivan and Ekman (2004) are statistical flukes. They ignore one class of experts we have identified and misrepresent the procedures we use to identify the others. They also question the psychometric validity of the measures and protocol used. Many of their points are addressed in the chapter they criticize. The fruitfulness of the O'Sullivan-Ekman protocol is illustrated with respect to improved identification of expert lie detectors, as well as a replicated pattern of errors made by experts from different professional groups. The statistical arguments offered confuse the theoretical use of the binomial with the empirical use of the normal distribution. Data are provided that may clarify this distinction.     

Comparison of motor oils using high-temperature gas chromatography-mass spectrometry

The analysis of motor oils has wide applications in the forensic science field from comparing lubricants transferred between an automobile and a victim or crime scene to differentiating the compositions of plastic explosives. In this study, 40 unused motor oils were analyzed and compared by high-temperature gas chromatography-mass spectrometry to determine the potential for oil individualization. Oil samples were also collected from the crankcase dipsticks of 30 cars. Twenty-six of these oils could be differentiated from each other based on visual comparisons of the unresolved envelope (baseline rise due to incomplete separation) and the resolved hydrocarbons in the raw total ion chromatograms (TICs) and smoothed TIC data. Four of these oils were analyzed as unknowns and were correctly related to the corresponding vehicle. The use of extracted ion profiles (EIPs) was explored as a means to further discriminate between the indistinct samples based on the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) content. The research discussed in this paper demonstrated that differentiation of motor oils was possible by examining the TIC, smoothed TIC, and EIP data.     

Intensive supervision programs: Does program philosophy and the principles of effective intervention matter?

Although traditional intensive supervision programs that have aimed at increasing control and surveillance in the community have not been shown to reduce recidivism, prior research indicates that intensive supervision programs that are based on a human service philosophy and provide treatment to offenders offer more promise. The current research examined the effectiveness of fifty-eight intensive supervision programs and sought to determine whether program philosophy and treatment integrity are associated with reductions in recidivism. The results indicated that both program philosophy and treatment integrity vary independently of one another and are related to the ability of programs to produce meaningful effects on recidivism.     

When (Some) Prostitution is Legal: The Impact of Law Reform on Sex Work in Australia

In Australia, prostitution regulation has taken a very different path from many other countries. Law reform has led to the opening of some significant new spaces for legal sex work, including the (very different) regulatory regimes established in two Australian states – Queensland (brothels legal if their owners are licensed) and New South Wales (most commercial sex businesses and some street prostitution decriminalized; no licensing regime). The main research question is: how has regulation impacted on the positive rights of sex workers? I argue that law reform has engaged a mix of neo-liberal and other approaches – not to increase personal or corporate freedom but as part of a practical strategy designed to control a range of social problems, such as police corruption and organized crime. Neo-liberal regulation of prostitution in Australia has always been deployed in tandem with other modes of regulation – including new criminal law and policing strategies, planning law, health regulations, and (of course) moral regulation.     

The prevalence of mixed DNA profiles on fingernail swabs

There is a general acceptance that cellular material will transfer from one person to another person's fingernails through everyday contact. However, the level or degree of contact required to transfer sufficient cellular material in order to obtain a DNA profile is not known. This study examined swabs from the fingernails of 40 volunteers and compared the DNA profiles obtained to the daily activities of that individual. The majority (78%) of high level profiles obtained were associated with recent intimate contact. However, high level profiles were also obtained from the fingernails of individuals who shared accommodation with their partner, flatmates and/or children. Low level profiles and single profiles were associated with all levels of contact.     

Transforming China poverty crisis： Challenges and issues

This paper describes the economic conditions of urban and rural poverty in China. The examination of this problem deconstructs into three components and this explains why this problem is China＇s premier economic problem, despite its recent economic progress into a world ranked industrial economic power. Here, this paper examines the period of 1985 to 2008, a period of almost exponential growth. Even though during this period millions escaped from poverty levels of income, this was only part of the positive results. There were social negatives as well, and the main one was that economic inequality became worse, as the impoverished, as well as being affected by the current financial situation that has overcome the Chinese labor market, has put them into competition with the better off who are in the same economic predicament. As China merges into forms of economic globalization, any external blow will cause sharp fluctuations within the Chinese economy, as reflected within the labor market. Unemployment imposes direct impacts on incomes, and may give rise to social instability. As a result, job growth should be at the top of the macro-control agenda.     

Validity and Determinants of Clinicians’ Return to Work Judgments for Individuals Following Whiplash Injury

Rehabilitation clinicians routinely make judgments about the capacity of individuals to return to work following whiplash injury, which can have serious implications for individuals’ continued access to salary indemnity benefits. The present study examined the validity and determinants of these judgments. During a standardized rehabilitation intervention, data regarding demographic factors, crash characteristics, pain severity, range of motion, pain-related psychological functioning, as well as change in the latter three factors over the course of treatment were collected for 104 whiplash-injured individuals (73 women, 31 men). Upon completion of the intervention, clinicians rated the number of hours each individual was capable of working per day. Follow-up data regarding the actual number of hours worked were collected 1 year later. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that clinicians’ judgments added significant unique variance to the return to work prediction beyond other predictive factors, and that clinicians were particularly influenced by patients’ pain severity and treatment-related change in pain severity in making these judgments. Although clinicians were significantly able to predict return to work, the limited variance accounted for by their judgments (12%) warrants caution in the use of these judgments in decisions related to access to services or indemnity. Factors predictive of clinician judgment and actual return to work are compared, and recommendations to enhance the utility of these judgments are made.     

Gender in the Context of Same‐Sex Divorce and Relationship Dissolution

This article identifies ways that judges, lawyers, researchers, and policy makers may attend to the role of gender and gender dynamics facing same‐sex couples upon divorce or other relationship dissolution. When same‐sex couples marry, the legal system and society at large may project conceptions of gender onto same‐sex couples, often in a manner that conflicts with couples' intentions and practices. Gender and gender dynamics may affect the bases for dissolution, the financial aspects of dissolution, and the determination of child custody. The article also suggests directions for future research on the impact of gender on the dissolution of same‐sex relationships.     

Bringing Community Based Participatory Research to Domestic Violence Scholarship: an Online Toolkit

In the absence of ongoing involvement in the communities that are the subjects of research, even well-intentioned researchers can develop questions that are not relevant to community needs, employ methods that hurt community members, or disseminate findings in ways that are inaccessible to those most affected. Recognizing these harms, a growing number of domestic violence (DV) researchers have embraced community-based participatory research (CBPR), an approach in which researchers and community members share power at every level of the research process, co-creating knowledge that can be applied to enhance community well-being. Despite growing interest in this approach, however, there are insufficient opportunities for interested researchers to learn how to actually engage in it, especially in the DV context. To remedy this gap, the authors of this paper collaborated to develop an online toolkit for emerging researchers interested in CPBR. This brief report frames the need for CBPR in DV research using short vignettes that come from our own research experience; introduces Power Through Partnerships: A CBPR Toolkit for Domestic Violence Researchers; and presents recommendations for developing, promoting, and disseminating future CBPR research. We chose to announce the development and availability of this toolkit in an academic journal in order to highlight its scholarly and practical relevance for researcher audiences who might be less familiar with the CBPR approach.