Uganda and U.S. Foreign Policy

Washington's relationships with the “leveraged allies” preferred by realists—those countries that have little choice but to follow America's lead—have long been considered more reliable than in its relationships with the “natural allies” favored by idealists: prosperous, democratic nations that share the goals and interests of the United States. President Bush's foreign policy requires these natural allies, but many U.S. government officials are more wary. Uganda under President Museveni is a model “natural ally” candidate, with its relatively humane and democratic internal policies, but its greater capacity to act without American leverage, approval, or supervision is likely to worry realist career diplomats.     

Assessing the Effect of Batterer Program Completion on Reassault: An Instrumental Variables Analysis

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the utility of using the instrumental variables (IV) method to estimate batterer program efficacy, i.e., the program effect among batterers who complete batterer programs. This method takes account of possible confounding due to unmeasured traits of compliers and non-compliers. A structural model is used to estimate the impact of program completion on reassault using instrumental variables (IV) regression. Data on 640 batterers enrolled at three batterer programs are used. Results obtained from IV regression are compared with those obtained from a more traditional regression analysis. The results indicate that usual regression methods yield estimates of program effect that may be biased due to confounding by unmeasured batterer characteristics. Unfortunately, IV estimates may be unreliable due to failure of some of the assumptions on which they are based. If equations are adequately identified by the non-linear functional form used to estimate them, then IV results indicate that among a very select group of batterers, program completion significantly reduces the probability of reassault. The implications of confounding due to program non-compliance, program non-enrollment and attrition for future evaluations of batterer programs are discussed.     

Who ‘Tweets’ Where and When,and How Does it Help Understand Crime Rates at Places? Measuring the Presence of Tourists and Commuters in Ambient Populations

Journal of Quantitative Criminology - Test the reliability of geotagged Twitter data for estimating block-level population metrics across place types. Evaluate whether the proportion of Twitter...