China's ‘Peaceful Rise’ Enters Turbulence

This article seeks to place recent developments in China in a larger context through three arguments. First, Chinese military policy has indeed made a major turning over the past decade; second, this turning is based on a fragile and unrealistic strategy that is already eliciting counterreactions that will make achievement of its apparent goals increasingly difficult. Finally, this strategy's failure will present China with unwelcome choices about how far to take her use of force. The “rise” of China is now encountering turbulence that may undo it.     

Arafat, The Man Who Wanted Too Much

Writing this profile after Yasser Arafat's death in 2004, the author argues that Arafat's career was a monument to Western weakness and ineptitude in dealing with international terrorists.     

The Rise of Chinese Power and the Implications for the Regional Security Order

This article examines the reach of China's growing economic and military power in East Asia. It examines the economic and military sources of the rise of China and the implications of the development of Chinese strategic influence on the Korean Peninsula and across the Taiwan Strait. It also considers where in East Asia China has yet to develop greater coercive or deterrent military capabilities, so that the strategic status quo in this area persists, thus establishing the regional strategic boundaries of the rise of China and the emerging U.S.-China great power order in East Asia.     

Is Russia Succeeding in Central Asia?

On a number of recent occasions, the top Russian leadership has expressed its special interest in the affairs of former Soviet republics, including the assertion that Russia has a “privileged” relationship with these now independent states.¹ Is this a claim of accomplished fact, of future intention, or perhaps an empty expression of nostalgia for lost status? As we see it, the record of Russian actions in the largest group of these states—the five of Central Asia—allows us to exclude the first and question whether the second is realizable. Russia must contend with the aspirations of those states themselves, as well as the determined interests of China and, to a lesser extent, the West.     

To Survive, Decentralize!: The Barbarian Threat and State Decentralization

What happens when states or empires face multiple and geographically dispersed assaults along their frontiers from non-state, tribal actors? It is plausible to argue that the result may be state decentralization, both military and administrative. In some cases, this may be a conscious strategy pursued by the central authorities, but in others, it may be the result of centrifugal tendencies pursued by disaffected local leaders. This article illustrates this argument by describing the end of the Roman empire, caused by multiple assaults of barbarian groups. The lesson is that in such an environment a centralized state that arrogates to itself all the functions of security provision may undermine its own safety.