Is Russia Succeeding in Central Asia?

On a number of recent occasions, the top Russian leadership has expressed its special interest in the affairs of former Soviet republics, including the assertion that Russia has a “privileged” relationship with these now independent states.¹ Is this a claim of accomplished fact, of future intention, or perhaps an empty expression of nostalgia for lost status? As we see it, the record of Russian actions in the largest group of these states—the five of Central Asia—allows us to exclude the first and question whether the second is realizable. Russia must contend with the aspirations of those states themselves, as well as the determined interests of China and, to a lesser extent, the West.     

History Rhymes: The German Precedent for Chinese Seapower

We compare the rise of Chinese seapower today to the rise of Imperial German seapower a century ago. The comparison is worthwhile for two reasons. First, the comparison holds merits in its own right. We use German Admiral Wolfgang Wegener's three indices of seapower-strategic position, the fleet, and strategic will to the sea-to assess the two countries’ maritime potential. This analysis leads inexorably to the conclusion that China holds far more potential for seapower that did the Kaiser's Germany. And second, the Chinese themselves are consulting German history as they inquire into the triumphs and failures of past great powers. Trying to divine how they interpret the German experience could let Western practitioners and scholars of grand strategy glimpse China's maritime future. In turn they can improve their own handling of strategy in East Asia.     

Al Qaeda in Mali: The Defection Connections

The control of northern Mali in 2012 by Tuareg rebels and Islamist fighters aligned with al Qaeda proved a serious challenge to Western counterterrorism policies. This article looks at several aspects often overlooked in discussions of the internal dynamics of al Qaeda-linked groups. Using defections related to the al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) offshoot group, the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO), in Mali as a case study, this article considers the issues of race and legitimacy connected to the group and the threat and policy implications that flow from this analysis.     

The Age of Liberal Imperialism: Twenty-five Years of a Flawed U.S. Foreign Policy

The most common assertion about U.S. foreign policy appearing in scholarly journals and opinion articles is that it is incoherent. This article will show that nothing could be further from the truth. In fact, it is a growing cohesiveness from political science centered around the democratic peace thesis and a growing interdisciplinary consensus that western human rights need to be granted and enforced around that world that has fed into a highly cohesive, highly militarized, foreign policy of what will be defined as Liberal Imperialism.     

The Revenge of Geopolitics

On the eve of Bill Clinton's second term, Harvey Sicherman wrote that the President must educate public opinion, cultivate congressional consensus, manage international coalitions, and use military power decisively when needed.     

To Survive, Decentralize!: The Barbarian Threat and State Decentralization

What happens when states or empires face multiple and geographically dispersed assaults along their frontiers from non-state, tribal actors? It is plausible to argue that the result may be state decentralization, both military and administrative. In some cases, this may be a conscious strategy pursued by the central authorities, but in others, it may be the result of centrifugal tendencies pursued by disaffected local leaders. This article illustrates this argument by describing the end of the Roman empire, caused by multiple assaults of barbarian groups. The lesson is that in such an environment a centralized state that arrogates to itself all the functions of security provision may undermine its own safety.