Ideas, Inheritances, and the Dynamics of Budgetary Change

Long the lifeblood of public administration, budgeting in the United States acquired a new importance during the 1980s and 1990s because of the fiscalization of the policy debate. But how much has American national budgeting really changed? This article examines the evolution of federal budgeting over the past half-century, exploring such developments as the massive growth of entitlements, congressional budget reform, and the protracted battle over the budget deficit. It finds that year-to-year changes in budget results have been relatively small even while budgetary rules and procedures have experienced sweeping change. At the same time, the composition of federal spending has undergone a quiet revolution. The traditional concept of budgetary incrementalism offers an incomplete explanation for these dynamics. To make sense of them, the article focuses on two key factors: the impact of policy inheritances, and the role of actors' causal and normative beliefs. These factors shape the ideational and material context within which boundedly rational actors negotiate decisions. The tension between changes in ideas and entrenched budgetary commitments has often served to stimulate institutional reform.     

Assessing Violence Risk Among Discharged Psychiatric Patients: Toward an Ecological Approach

This paper draws upon data from the Pittsburgh site of the MacArthur Foundation's Risk Assessment Study, a large-scale study of violence risk among persons discharged from psychiatric hospitals, to examine the effect of the neighborhood context on risk of violence. This paper has two purposes: (1) to assess the extent to which the inclusion of neighborhood characteristics enhances violence prediction models—models that traditionally only include individual-level characteristics; and (2) to assess the consistency of individual level risk factors across different neighborhood contexts. Results indicate that neighborhood poverty has an impact over and above the effects of individual characteristics in identifying cases with violence. These findings support efforts to include neighborhood context in the assessment and management of violence risk among discharged psychiatric patients.     

Choosing among signalling equilibria in lobbying games: A reply to Sloof

Randolph Sloof has written a comment on the lobbying-as-signalling model in Rasmusen (1993) in which he points out an equilibrium I missed and criticizes my emphasis on a particular separating equilibrium (see this issue). In this response, I discuss how to interpret multiple equilibria in games and how to interpret mixed strategy equilibria in which two types of player with identical incentives must pick different mixing probabilities.     

A Longitudinal Study of the Interactive Effects of Impulsivity and Anger on Adolescent Problem Behavior

The current study examined the moderating effect of impulsivity on the relation between anger and adolescent problem behavior (substance use and delinquency). High levels of anger were associated with delinquency for impulsive, but not for nonimpulsive adolescents in cross-sectional analyses. This moderating effect was not supported for substance use. Gender-moderated links between temperament and problem behavior showed that anger predicted substance use for females only, and impulsivity was more strongly associated with delinquency for males. In prospective analyses, both anger and impulsivity predicted adolescent problem behavior, but impulsivity did not moderate the effects of anger. Overall, results provided partial support for the notion that temperament dimensions operate interactively to promote poor adjustment.     

The relationship between congressional spending and tenure with an application to term limits

Whether term limits would increase or decrease federal spending depends on the reason for the causal relationship between tenure and spending. We investigate this subject by empirically studying congressional spending and tenure for all United States House and Senate members who entered Congress between the 94th and 102nd Congresses (1975–1992). As our measure of congressional spending we use the National Taxpayers Union's Congressional Spending Scores. Our study finds that a statistically significant relationship exists between congressional spending and tenure for some groups of congressmen. We then test three hypotheses relating tenure and spending. No single hypothesis is consistent with all of our empirical results. Nevertheless, the small sizes of the empirical effects estimated in this study suggest that term limits would have an inconsequential impact on the level of federal spending – at least via the “moral hazard” mechanisms described in this paper.     

Transcultural comparisons of self-image in German and United States adolescents

Based on the Offer Selfimage Questionnaire (OSIQ), the selfimage of German and United States adolescents was compared. The German study was based on OSIQ protocols from 365 adolescents in West Berlin while the American sample comprised adolescents drawn from seven cities in the United States. With respect to three scales, United States adolescents report better adjustment than do the German adolescents. These scales were Mastery of the External World, Vocational and Educational Goals, and Superior Adjustment. In general, these two Western societies share more similarities than differences in the selfimages of their adolescents.Received M.D. and Ph.D in Psychology from the University of Hamburg, Germany. Research interests are high-risk studies, child psychiatric epidemiology, and adolescence.Received M.D. from the University of Chicago. Major interests are concepts of mental health and the developmental psychology of adolescence.Received J. D. from the University of Chicago School of Law; received Ph.D. in Human Development from the University of Chicago. Research interests are adolescence and delinquency.Received Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of Chicago. Major interests are psychotherapy research and adolescence.     

Formula budgeting: The economics and analytics of fiscal policy under rules

The dramatic change in aggregate fiscal policy in recent years has contributed to a shift from process rules to allocation rules in federal budgeting. Although the allocation rules inherent in formula budgeting seem to offer fairness in times of fiscal constraint, they actually impose arbitrary program-level budgets that reflect the peculiarities of baselines, accounting conventions, and time horizons. Formula budgeting also changes the analytical environment, forcing policy analysts to pay greater attention to institutional arrangements.