Centripetal and Centrifugal Incentives under Different Electoral Systems

In a seminal article, Cox (1990) suggested that electoral systems with larger district magnitudes provide incentives for parties to advocate more extreme policy positions. In this article, we put this proposition to the test. Informed by recent advances in spatial models of party competition, we introduce a design that embeds the effect of electoral rules in the utility function of voters. We then estimate the equilibrium location of parties as the weight voters attach to the expected distribution of seats and votes changes. Our model predicts that electoral rules affect large and small parties in different ways. We find centripetal effects only for parties that are favorably biased by electoral rules. By contrast, smaller parties see their vote share decline and are pushed toward more extreme equilibrium positions. Evidence from 13 parliamentary democracies supports model predictions. Along with testing the incentives provided by electoral rules, results carry implications for the strategies of vote‐maximizing parties and for the role of small parties in multiparty competition.     

Subarachnoid Hemorrhage and Carbon Monoxide Exposure: Accidental Association or Fatal Link?

This case study reports a fatal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) with concomitant accidental carbon monoxide (CO) exposure in 32‐year‐old man. Autopsy results indicated an antemortem aspiration of smoke, and a massive SAH was identified as the cause of death. Intriguingly, the carboxyhemoglobin level was 30%, suggesting that CO could have played a specific role. Intracranial hemorrhages following CO exposure in brain areas and tissues such as the basal ganglia, globus pallidus, or white matter are rare, but well characterized, whereas SAH related to CO exposure has not been previously described. In this case report, the possible role of CO, either as a primary cause or as a facilitating factor, in the pathogenesis of SAH is discussed. In particular, we propose the hypothesis that the excessive vasodilating effects produced by CO on the cerebral endothelium results in consequential loss of microvascular integrity.     

Gunshot location through recorded sound: a preliminary report

Using a video tape and three still photographs, we analyze recorded sound to attribute authorship in a fatal shooting incident. We measure the acoustic signature of the scene with four test detonations, and we discuss two methods of processing putative echoes in the audio band of the video. They allow us to locate 11 out of 17 shots, with a precision of 0.4 x 1.0 m2. Combining the location of the shots with the known positions of the participants, we arrive at the clear attribution of eight shots; three other shots (among which is the fatal one) probably issue from the same shooter, who remains unidentified within a small group of men. Our results lead to the exculpation of the main suspect. We analyze the statistical significance of the results, use Monte Carlo simulations to set an upper bound to the probability of false positives, and discuss areas of improvement of the method.     

Who Delivers? Partisan Clients in the Argentine Electoral Market

Why do some parties fail to benefit from patronage in pork‐ridden political systems? This article analyzes the interaction between patronage and partisanship to explain why some incumbents are more likely to benefit from pork politics than others. We explain such differences by focusing on political parties' access to resources (supply side) and voters' dependence on fiscal largesse (demand side). We show how these differences affect the patron's choice of public sector wages and employment. We use subnational level data to show different electoral returns from patronage for the two major political coalitions in Argentina—Peronism and the UCR‐Alianza—and their effect on preferences over public sector wages and employment.     

The Local Voter: A Geographically Weighted Approach to Ecological Inference

Drawing inferences about individual behavior from aggregate ecological data has been a persistent problem in electoral and behavioral studies, in spite of important methodological advances. In a recent article Anselin and Tam Cho (2002) provided Monte Carlo evidence that King's Ecological Inference (EI) solution will produce biased estimates in the presence of extreme spatial heterogeneity. In this article we provide further empirical evidence that supports their findings and shows that in the presence of spatial effects the residuals of Goodman's naïve model exhibit the same spatial structure that King's local  B ^B _i  estimates. Solving for extreme spatial heterogeneity, it is argued here, requires controlling the omitted variable bias expressed in the spatial structure of much ecological data. In this article we propose a Geographically Weighted Regression approach (GWR) for solving problems of spatial aggregation bias and spatial autocorrelation that affect all known methods of ecological inference. The estimation process is theoretically intuitive and computationally simple, showing that a well-specified GWR approach to Goodman and King's Ecological Inference methods may result in unbiased and consistent local estimates of ecological data that exhibit extreme spatial heterogeneity.     

Two regionalisms,two Latin Americas or beyond Latin America? Contributions from a critical and decolonial IPE

This article reconsiders the hegemonic interpretation of Latin American regionalisms, which have been defined as expressions of the fragmentation power of ideologies. After identifying the main bias and limitations of this approach, two alternative analytical proposals are presented: critical International Political Economy (IPE), which reconsiders the region’s heterogeneity as the reflection of a variety of historical trajectories; and the increasingly influential Latin/Latin American modernity/coloniality approach, which re-authorises the voices of a multiplicity of ‘marginal’ subjectivities to the cognoscible world of international studies.     

Measuring horizontal fiscal imbalance: the case of Italian municipalities

In the literature on fiscal federalism, vertical fiscal imbalance has been widely studied, while the theme of horizontal fiscal imbalance and inequality among local governments, due to differences in their fiscal capacities, has been less explored. This article contributes to fill the gap. A new method to compute fiscal capacities based on regression analysis is proposed, which can overcome some of the drawbacks of traditional methods such as the representative tax system. This new approach is then employed to evaluate the fiscal capacities of Italian municipalities over the period 2002–2010. Finally two global measures of the horizontal fiscal imbalance are used to evaluate the equity implication of a major policy change occurred in 2008 in Italian municipal finance.