A coffee can, factor analysis, and prediction of antisocial behavior: the structure of criminal risk

The predictive accuracy of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised, Level of Service Inventory-Revised, Violence Risk Appraisal Guide, and the General Statistical Information on Recidivism were compared to four instruments randomly generated from the total pool of original items. None of the four original instruments better predicted post-release failure than the four randomly generated instruments. These results suggest two conclusions: (a) the instruments are only measuring criminal risk, and (b) no single instrument has captured sufficient risk assessment theory to result in better prediction than randomly derived instruments measuring criminal risk. A two-stage factor analysis was completed on 1614 cases. This analysis of the risk items indicated a 4-factor solution and all 4 factors were equal to the original instruments in predicting post-release failure. Thus, the original instruments did not improve prediction over randomly structured scales, nor did the restructuring of items improve risk assessment, suggesting substantial deficiencies in the conceptualization of risk assessment and instrumentation. We argue that developing a risk-based construct, which involves hypothesis testing and an explanation of behavior, is the optimal method to advance risk assessment within the criminal justice and mental health systems. Such an approach would provide targeted areas for clinical intervention that are salient to risk.     

Defining event reconstruction of digital crime scenes

Event reconstruction plays a critical role in solving physical crimes by explaining why a piece of physical evidence has certain characteristics. With digital crimes, the current focus has been on the recognition and identification of digital evidence using an object's characteristics, but not on the identification of the events that caused the characteristics. This paper examines digital event reconstruction and proposes a process model and procedure that can be used for a digital crime scene. The model has been designed so that it can apply to physical crime scenes, can support the unique aspects of a digital crime scene, and can be implemented in software to automate part of the process. We also examine the differences between physical event reconstruction and digital event reconstruction.     

Military transformation,political economy pressures and the future of trans-atlantic national security space cooperation

Investment demand for national security space is building on both sides of the Atlantic due to changes in technology and the threat environment. Many people hope that the close NATO alliance ties will facilitate trans-Atlantic coordination of plans. Coordination, they argue, would increase efficiency, yielding more and better space systems, and also would enhance effectiveness, increasing the operational pay-off of each unit of investment. However, several barriers stand in the way: the economic benefits would be smaller than advocates hope, political constraints bind tightly and military doctrine is evolving in different directions in Europe and the United States. Consequently, trans-Atlantic cooperation is unlikely to make a major contribution to national security space policy.     

Graffiti vandalism: Frequency and context differences between the sexes

This paper explores a popular yet highly destructive form of property crime — graffiti vandalism. The localities of such destruction selected for study were male and female restrooms. Three hundred and ninety-two cases were collected and analyzed. Prior research theorized the existence of a significant difference in the amount of graffiti produced between the sexes. (It was believed that males produce more graffiti than females). Analysis, however, revealed equal production of graffiti by males and females.Content differences between the sexes were hypothesized. The content categories included homosexual, heterosexual, nonsexual (humorous and political statements) and racial graffiti. The findings as they relate to content differences between the sexes are presented and discussed relative to sex-role socialization theory.     

Public attitudes towards the death penalty

Responses to a general question regarding the use of the death penalty were compared with the sentences that respondents chose in a set of scenarios describing homicide cases. The percentage of respondents who assigned the death sentence in one or more of the following scenarios was higher than those who favored the death penalty in the abstract question, but there were inconsistencies in the answers. A majority assigned the death penalty only for the most heinous offender described, and the figures were lower for other crimes, even clear cases of first degree murder. At the same time, a manipulation involving information about methods of execution did not affect answers. These results strongly suggest that the abstract questions typically used in public opinion polls do not accurately reflect the public's feelings about use of the death penalty in specific cases. More generally, research on public opinion regarding criminal justice policies should survey a variety of specific circumstances.     

Organizational Process,Rulemaking Pace,and the Shadow of Judicial Review

Scholars have long understood that structuring internal work processes into more hierarchical or team‐based arrangements has consequences for organizational outputs. Building on this insight, this research examines the relationship between how agencies organize their rulemaking routines and the resulting rules. Tracking the job functions of rule contacts for economically significant rules proposed over a four‐year period, the analysis demonstrates that expanding the breadth of personnel types closely involved in a rulemaking is associated with a reduction in the time it takes to promulgate the rule. However, increasing the pace at which rules are finalized is not without cost, as those completed faster appear more likely to be overturned when challenged in court. The article not only adds another dimension to empirical scholarship studying rulemaking, which has largely focused on how forces originating outside the agency affect rules, but also suggests the importance of considering competing priorities in designing rulemaking processes.