A LOG‐MULTIPLICATIVE ASSOCIATION MODEL FOR ALLOCATING HOMICIDES WITH UNKNOWN VICTIM‐OFFENDER RELATIONSHIPS*

This research note critically evaluates conventional methods for allocating homicides with an unknown victim/offender relationship to meaningful categories, and it proposes an alternative approach. We argue that conventional methods are based on a problematic assumption, namely, that the missing data mechanism is “ignorable.” As an alternative to these methods, we propose an imputation algorithm derived from a log‐multiplicative model that does not require this assumption. We apply this technique to estimate levels of homicides disaggregated by victim/offender relationship using the Federal Bureau of Investigation's Supplementary Homicide Report (SHR) data for 1996 and 1997, and we compare the resulting estimates with those obtained from the application of conventional procedures. Our results yield a larger proportion of stranger homicides than are obtained from the conventional methods.     

The individuality of fibres used to provide forensic evidence--not all blue polyesters are the same.

Fibres used in forensic casework suffer from a disadvantage common to other forms of trace evidence--it is not possible to state with absolute certainty that they originate from a specific source. Target fibre studies, population studies and research on 'blocks of colour' have effectively demonstrated the polymorphism of textile fibres (particularly man-made ones) and have shown that when a fibre is believed to have a specific putative source, the chance that it has originated from a different source purely by coincidence is extremely remote. A study by Houck MM (Houck MM, Inter-comparison of unrelated fibre evidence. Forensic Science International 2003; 135: 146-149) has shown that no coincidental matching fibres were recovered from items of clothing examined in 20 unrelated crimes. The study involved over two million comparisons. This work goes a step further, and using the example of blue polyester fibres shows that even within a very narrow segment of the whole general fibre population, many examples of a specific colour/type of man-made fibre taken from random sources can be compared and the chance of any two being the same is very low. These studies should help to show the specificity and value of transferred fibres in providing forensic evidence.     

The Trilateral cooperation

Legal context: The relatively informal agreements setting up the TrilateralCooperation (TC) among the world's three most important patentoffices are contrasted with formal multinational treaties suchas the Patent Law Treaty and the abortive Substantive PatentLaw Treaty. Key points: After its inception in 1983, the TC concentrated initially ondeveloping and implementing standards for electronic storageand retrieval of prior art documents, and facilitation of searching.This was later extended to electronic sharing of priority documentsand to standardization and searching of DNA sequence databases.More recently emphasis has been placed on harmonization of searchingand examination procedures, and working groups have comparedthe approaches of the Trilateral Offices (TOs) to the patentabilityof claims in areas of new technology. Encouragingly, the resultsare usually the same, although the specific objections raisedmay differ. The ultimate goal is to reach a situation in whicha claim allowed by one TO would be accepted by the others withoutfurther examination. Practical significance: The TC has already facilitated search and examination, leadingto lower costs and shorter pendency times than would otherwisebe the case. Further progress depends on harmonization of substantivepatent law, which in turn depends on the willingness of theUSA to accept a first-to-file system.     

SPLIT IDENTITY AND CHILDREN OF DIVORCE

Divorce, although a statistical norm, is a developmental trauma to the children involved. This article looks at the two-camp emotional environment of a divorcing family and its effect on the formation of a child's identity. By examining developmental ages, chosen according to divorce research, the author attempts to show how the interspouse emotional cathexes negatively affect a child's sense of self in ways specific to the child's age at the divorce.     

PUBLIC SECTOR REFORM IN DUTCH HIGHER EDUCATION: THE ORGANIZATIONAL TRANSFORMATION OF THE UNIVERSITY

During the past few decades traditional state‐centred governing arrangements have been critiqued and replaced by alternative modes of governance. Higher education is one of the public sectors where such shifts in governance have been seen. As a consequence of the reshuffling of authority and responsibilities across the different levels in Dutch higher education, universities as organizations have become important foci of attention in the system’s coordination. The main question addressed in this article is to what extent we can speak of an organizational transformation of Dutch universities. Based on conceptual ideas from researchers such as Greenwood and Hinings (1996), Ferlie et al. (1996) , and Brunsson and Sahlin‐Andersson (2000) , we use a framework that focuses attention on the concepts of the construction of identity, hierarchy and rationality to systematically analyse the various aspects of transformations of professional organizations.     

Bolt from the Blue or Avoidable Failure? Revisiting September 11 and the Origins of Strategic Surprise

Drawing on the strategic surprise, warning-response, and foreign policy literature, this article argues that the September 11 terror attacks should be regarded as a strategic surprise and examines a number of key factors that contributed to vulnerability and inhibited vigilance. Three broad explanatory "cuts" derived from the literature—psychological, bureau-organizational, and agenda-political—are deployed to sift through the rapidly expanding empirical record in an effort to shed light on the processes and contextual factors that left the United States vulnerable to the attacks. The article aims to improve our understanding of generic processes and practices that enhance or detract from vulnerability and vigilance.     

Mass deaths by gas or chemical poisoning. A historical perspective

This review chronicles the characteristics of deliberate and accidental mass poisonings that occurred in World Wars I and II, in Bhopal, and in other historical cases up to and including modern wars. It also considers approaches to the investigation of such cases from the medicolegal as well as general standpoints.     

DNA commission of the International Society of Forensic Genetics: Recommendations on the interpretation of mixtures

The DNA commission of the International Society of Forensic Genetics (ISFG) was convened at the 21st congress of the International Society for Forensic Genetics held between 13 and 17 September in the Azores, Portugal. The purpose of the group was to agree on guidelines to encourage best practice that can be universally applied to assist with mixture interpretation. In addition the commission was tasked to provide guidance on low copy number (LCN) reporting. Our discussions have highlighted a significant need for continuing education and research into this area. We have attempted to present a consensus from experts but to be practical we do not claim to have conveyed a clear vision in every respect in this difficult subject. For this reason, we propose to allow a period of time for feedback and reflection by the scientific community. Then the DNA commission will meet again to consider further recommendations.