Dental identification by comparison of antemortem and postmortem dental radiographs: influence of operator qualifications and cognitive bias

Dental forensic identifications based on comparison of antemortem and postmortem radiographs provide effective and reliable evidence. There are no standardized procedures for assessing similarities between different types of dental radiographs (e.g. orthopantomograms, bitewings, and periapical radiographs), and the operator's subjective judgment can considerably affect identification. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the potential influence of experts' qualifications, training, and cognitive bias on the accuracy of identification. Seventy-eight differently qualified and experienced experts underwent an identification test. The expert sample was composed of 10 specialists in emergency care (ER), 10 specialists in legal medicine (ML), 20 pregraduate dental students (STU), 12 dentists (DENT), 20 dentists educated in forensic odontology (DENT-TRA), and 6 experienced forensic odontologists (FOR). The simulated cases required participants to assess the possible matching of 42 postmortem intraoral radiographs with 16 antemortem panoramic radiographs. Accuracy and specificity for the different operator groups were as follows: ER, 0.76-0.70; ML, 0.76-0.88; STU, 0.89-0.82; DENT, 0.87-0.97; DENT-TRA, 0.88-0.92; and FOR, 0.97-1. As evidenced by high rates of accuracy and repeatability, the most experienced forensic odontologist consistently outperformed operators less or differently educated and trained, especially for difficult cases. In our sample, the dentists who received additional education in forensic odontology did not necessarily perform better than dentists who had not received this additional education. Some cognitive bias, mainly the so-called observer effect, emerged as a possible source of outcome variability among the operator groups.     

‘Let's Talk Cash’: Cantons' Interests and the Reform of Swiss Federalism

In 2004 the Swiss people accepted a new equalization scheme and a new distribution of competences between the federal state and the cantons. It was argued that the reform was successful because of the capacity of veto-players to overcome their interests and adopt a ‘problem-solving’ interaction mode. We propose a different interpretation and argue that distributive issues and the accommodation of actors' interests crucially mattered. We identify three mechanisms that contribute to a successful reform, i.e. package-deals, side-payments and the downsizing of the reform. Our in-depth, mainly qualitative study of both the content of the reform and related decision-making process supports the pertinence of these strategies for the explanation of the successful reform of Swiss federalism.     

A nonlinear principal component analysis of the relationship between budget rules and fiscal performance in the European Union

Tests of the relationship between budget rules and fiscal performance are metric sensitive and arbitrary in the evaluation of the stringency of the rules, in the aggregation of these evaluations in an index and in the imposition of a linearly specified model. We propose a nonlinear principal component analysis to solve these problems and evaluate the relative disciplinary power of each rule. A battery of panel regressions on 1980–2003 optimally transformed data relative to 12 EU countries confirms that, upon controlling for standard economic, political and institutional variables, more stringent rules reduce fiscal imbalances and budget size.     

Death from renal cyst: spontaneous or traumatic rupture?

We report an unusual death of an apparently healthy 56-year-old male due to massive hemorrhage caused by rupture of an artery in the wall of a solitary renal cyst, possibly after a relatively minor trauma. Fatalities due to spontaneous or posttraumatic rupture of renal cysts are extremely rare but can represent a potential danger for people with acquired cystic kidney disease. Our report describes results of the forensic investigation and discusses possible mechanisms of the rupture.     

Results of the 2003-2004 GEP-ISFG collaborative study on mitochondrial DNA: focus on the mtDNA profile of a mixed semen-saliva stain

We report here a review of the seventh mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) exercise undertaken by the Spanish and Portuguese working group (GEP) of the International Society for Forensic Genetics (ISFG) corresponding to the period 2003-2004. Five reference bloodstains from five donors (M1-M5), a mixed stain of saliva and semen (M6), and a hair sample (M7) were submitted to each participating laboratory for nuclear DNA (nDNA; autosomal STR and Y-STR) and mtDNA analysis. Laboratories were asked to investigate the contributors of samples M6 and M7 among the reference donors (M1-M5). A total of 34 laboratories reported total or partial mtDNA sequence data from both, the reference bloodstains (M1-M5) and the hair sample (M7) concluding a match between mtDNA profiles of M5 and M7. Autosomal STR and Y-STR profiling was the preferred strategy to investigate the contributors of the semen/saliva mixture (M6). Nuclear DNA profiles were consistent with a mixture of saliva from the donor (female) of M4 and semen from donor M5, being the semen (XY) profile the dominant component of the mixture. Strikingly, and in contradiction to the nuclear DNA analysis, mtDNA sequencing results yield a more simple result: only the saliva contribution (M4) was detected, either after preferential lysis or after complete DNA digestion. Some labs provided with several explanations for this finding and carried out additional experiments to explain this apparent contradictory result. The results pointed to the existence of different relative amounts of nuclear and mtDNAs in saliva and semen. We conclude that this circumstance could strongly influence the interpretation of the mtDNA evidence in unbalanced mixtures and in consequence lead to false exclusions. During the GEP-ISFG annual conference a validation study was planned to progress in the interpretation of mtDNA from different mixtures.     

A Comparative Test of Alternative Theories of the Determinants of Italian Public Deficits (1950–1998)

The paper assesses the relative explanatorypower of the Keynesian, the optimalfinance, the contingent liability andseveral public choice theories of thedeterminants of public deficits on Italian1950–1998 data. A vector error correctionmodel suggests that deficits are sensitiveto unemployment levels, interest groups'preferences (especially the elderly),government fragmentation, changes in thedegree of stringency of budget rules andexternal economic constraints. Data insteadprovide a weak or no support to thehypotheses that deficits respond to outputgrowth and electoral events. Theimplications of the optimal finance and ofthe contingent liability theory arerejected as well.     

Referendum on Renzi: The 2016 Vote on the Italian Constitutional Revision

The 2016 constitutional referendum could have marked a new phase in Italian politics, producing a clear shift towards a majoritarian (and de facto presidential) democracy. But a substantial majority of voters rejected the reforms promoted by Matteo Renzi, leading to his resignation as Prime Minister. Once again, an attempt to redesign the Italian institutional framework failed due to party conflicts. This time, the referendum turned into a vote on Renzi himself. This article examines the background to the institutional reforms and the changing dynamics of the referendum campaign. Discussing the final outcome, it argues that this could produce a sort of U-turn in the long Italian transition.     

Electoral foundations of parliamentary questions: evidence from the European Parliament

Parliamentary questions (PQs) provide a useful tool for members of the European Parliament (MEPs) to control the executive at supranational level and to promote their reputation among relevant groups (party, interest groups and constituency). Previous works have just focused on macro-functions of questions, neglecting the opportunity for MEPs to use them as a re-election and re-selection strategy (micro-functions). In this article, it is argued that PQs are a relevant instrument in the hands of parliamentarians in order to increase their reputation and build up their political image. In particular, it is considered how variation in electoral systems might affect legislative behaviour and, especially, the number of questions asked. Using a new data set on oral and written questions to the European Commission and the Council, the article demonstrates how candidate-centred electoral systems incentivise MEPs to ask more questions than legislators elected under party-centred systems.     

Party policy diffusion in the European multilevel space: what it is,how it works,and why it matters

ABSTRACT

Almost since the end of World War II, transnational cooperation among political parties has been a common feature of European politics. This paper makes the case for studying transnational partisan cooperation in the European multilevel space, focusing in particular on the phenomenon of “party policy diffusion.” At the heart of the paper is a conceptual discussion of party policy diffusion in the EU. Specifically, we look at the (1) aims that lead parties to learn from or emulate parties in other countries; (2) the mechanisms through which this may work; and (3) the wider implications of this practice both for domestic and European politics. Drawing on this conceptual discussion, the paper then goes on to offer leads as to how the phenomenon of party policy diffusion can be studied in the European multilevel space. To this end, we briefly point to possible ways of testing hypotheses about party policy diffusion using spatially explicit modeling strategies such as spatial regression models and exponential random graph models for transnational party networks.     

Statistical analysis of DNA mixtures using peak area information and allelic drop out

A case of a woman killed in Perugia is reported. The woman was beaten to death and the body showed evidence of bites, kicks and punches. The request of the Court was to verify the presence of bites and if they belonged to humans. Morphological examination and genetic analysis with human Y-specific markers were performed in order to verify the origin of the bites. The DNA profile from the surrounded area of the traces was compared with the profile of the victim's husband (the suspect).The results showed a match between the profile of the suspect and that of the traces for all loci examined. Due to the fact that also other relatives of the husband's male lineage lived in the same house, it was not possible to identify the man who really contributed to the traces. Therefore, the analysis was implemented with autosomal STR markers, which showed a mixed genetic profile. In order to verify the number and the identity of the contributors, statistical analysis based upon peak area information was performed with Probabilistic Expert Systems.