Exchange Rate Pass-through to Import Prices,and Monetary Policy in South Africa

Abstract

Understanding how import prices adjust to exchange rates helps anticipate inflation effects and monetary policy responses. This article examines exchange rate pass-through to the monthly import price index in South Africa during 1980–2009. Short-horizon pass-through estimates are calculated using both single equation equilibrium correction models and systems (Johansen) models, controlling for both domestic and foreign costs. Average pass-through is incomplete at about 50 per cent within a year and 30 per cent in six months, and in the long-run, from the Johansen analysis including feedback effects, is about 55 per cent. There is evidence of slower pass-through under inflation targeting; pass-through is found to decline with recent exchange rate volatility and there is evidence for asymmetry, with greater pass-through occurring for small appreciations.     

School Governance in Wales

Abstract

This article focuses on the involvement of governors in the governance of schools in Wales. Set within the context of the devolved education system, school governance has gone from being on the margins of interest to centre stage. This reflects a new focus on pupil performance and outcomes and the need for pupils in Wales to be successful internationally. As new regulations come into place in Wales which demand more from governors in relation to promoting school performance and educational achievement, there is a requirement for governors to undertake particular training. Governors will have to decide whether to federate governor arrangements or not in relation to their leadership of schools. Two key themes emerge in this article. First, there is greater control and direction from the centre over governors in how they undertake their governance roles. Second, there is an expectation that governors will collaborate with each other in the governance of schools. Both of these aspects are different from existing governance arrangements and the extent to which pupil outcomes improve will be fundamental to the success of the new regulations.     

Where are all the victims?

Research Summary The passage of new laws that criminalize the trafficking of persons for labor and sexual services has raised public awareness about the problem of human trafficking. In response, police must understand the problem, identify human trafficking victims, and make arrests. The numbers of victims identified to date, however, has paled in comparison with official estimates, which leads some to question the existence of a human trafficking problem. Missing from this debate is information about how frequently police encounter human trafficking and how well prepared officers are to handle these cases. Analyzing survey responses from a national sample of police agencies in the United States, we found that less than 10% of police agencies identified human trafficking cases from 2000 to 2006. Larger agencies were more likely to identify cases of human trafficking but the agency leader perception about the problem in their local communities as well as taking steps to prepare officers to identify and respond were the most important factors to increasing human trafficking identification by police. Policy Implications This study provides much needed information about why U.S. officials have identified so few human trafficking victims. By understanding how often and under what conditions police find, investigate, and prosecute cases of human trafficking we will be in a better position to identify and overcome barriers to police responses to trafficking and understand the limitations of official statistics about human trafficking. Data from a national survey also provide a baseline measure of police identification of human trafficking against which we can gauge the progress of future anti-trafficking efforts.     

SHOULD ANTITRUST CONSENT DECREES REGULATE POST-MERGER PRICING?

Competitors proposing to merge sometimes propose price regulationin a consent decree as a condition of receiving merger approval.Antitrust enforcement agencies in the United States have beenreluctant to use such price-regulating decrees, as they sufferfrom practical problems in implementation. It is less recognized,however, that the use of consent decrees to regulate post-mergerprices may be unlawful. Such decrees exceed the scope of antitrustlaw and blur the distinction between the legislative power toregulate prices and the executive power to enforce the antitrustlaws. Despite the willingness of merging parties to accept priceregulation in consent decrees, economic and constitutional considerationscounsel against antitrust enforcement agencies adopting thispractice.     

Policing prostitution in an era of human trafficking enforcement

Prostitution and commercialized vice have been variously prioritized as urban crime problems across U.S. history. In response, lawmakers have historically been guided by a prohibititionst view where people selling, buying or facilitating the sale of sex are considered to be immoral and criminal. In recent years, public concern about the trafficking of persons for sex has reframed prostitution and the expectations of government response. The U.S. federal government and all fifty states have passed legislation that is guided by an abolitionist view of prostitution where people who are forced or coerced to sell sex are redefined as victims. State, county and municipal police officers are now receiving training on how to identify human trafficking cases and investigators are being trained to investigate and prepare cases for prosecution. Despite these efforts under the new legal regime, confusion exists about how sex trafficking differs from prostitution and correspondingly necessitates different types of law enforcement responses. Adding to this complication is the fact that in many major cities the responsibility for identifying and eradicating human trafficking has fallen to the same group of investigators who are responsible for enforcing vice and prostitution laws. As a result, prostitution enforcement is expected to change as police increasingly focus on identifying sex trafficking victims. Using data on police arrests for prostitution from 1980 to 2012, we examine the impact of federal and state anti-trafficking legislation on the local enforcement of prostitution. Our findings inform debate about legal reform as a response to urban crime problems and illustrate the complexities of policy implementation and interpretation.     

‘Stripped Down’ or Reconfigured Democracy

In his later writings Peter Mair expressed strong and ever more urgent concerns over the state of party politics and the future of representative politics itself. This paper uses Mair’s thesis to frame a discussion about the state of our representative system of democracy. It starts by setting out his arguments on party and democratic failure. It then considers the question of whether the evidence supports such a perspective, or whether in fact there are signs of adaptability and change. This in turn leads to a discussion about the reform agenda in established representative democracies, with particular attention to the potential of ‘mini-publics’ in enabling a role for ordinary citizens in debates over constitutional reform. The paper concludes by arguing that this reform agenda provides evidence of democracies being reconfigured rather than stripped down.