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Testing theories about political change requires analysts tomake assumptions about the memory of their time series. Appliedanalyses are often based on inferences that time series areintegrated and cointegrated. Typically analyses rest on DickeyFullerpretests for unit roots and a test for cointegration based onthe EngleGranger two-step method. We argue that thisapproach is not a good one and use Monte Carlo analysis to showthat these tests can lead analysts to conclude falsely thatthe data are cointegrated (or nearly cointegrated) when thedata are near-integrated and not cointegrating. Further, analystsare likely to conclude falsely that the relationship is notcointegrated when it is. We show how inferences are highly sensitiveto sample size and the signal-to-noise ratio in the data. Wesuggest three things. First, analysts should use the singleequation error correction test for cointegrating relationships;second, caution is in order in all cases where near-integrationis a reasonable alternative to unit roots; and third, analystsshould drop the language of cointegration in many cases andadopt single-equation error correction models when the theoryof error correction is relevant. 相似文献
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Neutralization theory was tested with questionnaires administered to a random sample of public school students (N=298) and institutionalized male delinquents (N=53). Nye-Short delinquency items were factor analyzed to yield three dimensions of delinquency (Predatory, Minor, and Aggressive), and each of the five techniques of neutralization was scored separately. Patterns of acceptance of neutralization techniques were similar among high school males, high school females, and institutionalized males. For example, all three subsamples scored highest on Detail of a Victim and lowest on Appeal to Higher Loyalties. Correlations between each technique of neutralization and each type of delinquency, however, were statistically significant and quite dissimilar. Within the three subsamples, however, there were no discernible patterns among these dissimilar correlations. In fact, few of the differences among these correlations were statistically significant. The analysis provides general support for neutralization theory, but indicates that the particular technique of neutralization as well as the particular type of delinquent act may be viable distinctions in delinquency research. 相似文献
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Jim Sidanius 《Scandinavian political studies》1987,10(2):111-124
Differences in social attitudes between youthful supporters of different Swedish political parties were studied within a cluster sample of 783 Swedish high school students. Analyses of variance disclosed that, overall, respondents with different political party preferences differed with respect to social attitude dimensions: Political-Economic Conservatism, Social Inequality, Punitiveness, Militarism, Pro-western Sentiments, Racism, Xenophobia and Religion in that order. Multivariate, logistic regression analysis disclosed, among other things, that (1) the issue of political-economic conservatism (i.e. 'left-right') was a highly salient one for all party supporters with the exception of fascists, and (2) with the exception of Political-Economic Conservatism, different combinations of social attitudes were shown to discriminate any given party from all other parties. The theoretical implications of the findings are discussed. 相似文献
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Luis Felipe Mantilla 《Democratization》2016,23(3):395-416
Under what conditions does democratization erode religious political engagement? The dramatic democratic transitions in the Catholic world during the last quarter of the twentieth century have been accompanied by the widespread decline of Catholic political parties, but the interaction between democratizing reforms and the development of religious parties in the Catholic world remains poorly understood. This article analyses the crucial case of Mexico to explore if, how, and under what conditions electoral participation encourages the differentiation of religious and partisan activism. Relying on archival research and an original data set describing the religious linkages of 302 historic and contemporary leading members of the PAN, Mexico's largest Catholic-inspired party, this article shows that democratization is only indirectly linked to the secularization of religious parties, and its effects are conditional on the resources and opportunities available to religious activists. 相似文献
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The literature on platforms emphasizes the balance between supply and demand as precursors to network expansion, strategy development and strategy sustainability. This study questions this logic through the exploratory approach of a public platform based on social returns. Results demonstrate that when an institutional force supports a platform concerned with diffuse and collective interests, it is possible that the strategy could sustain and develop without the balance of its forces. The study contributes to the strategic platform literature by pointing out the distinct aspects of social platforms and underlining the support generated by institutions. 相似文献
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Why during the last decade have many young Russians become politically active well beyond simply voting? Particularly striking among youth activists is their enthusiastic support for Putinism and a resounding rejection of the policies, symbols and political figures of the era of President Boris Yeltsin (1992–2000). The vast majority of youth activists are of college age (18–24), which means they were far too young to be aware of what was happening in the country in the 1990s, the period that while democratic and pro-Western, also represents a failure of the Russian state in their imagery. To what degree do the opinions and world views of politically active pro-Kremlin youth reflect the recently emerged, nearly ubiquitous interpretation of recent history as presented in the high school curriculum? To that end, we undertake a content analysis of 47 high school textbooks in Russian history, followed by open-ended interviews with 37 activists from the three most visible youth organizations, all of whom are pro-Kremlin in their orientation. Although demonstrating a causal relationship is methodologically unfeasible, we find a marked correlation between the views of both the Yeltsin and Putin eras presented in those textbooks and in the political beliefs of the youth groups. 相似文献