The Politics of Administrative Reforms in Ghana: Perspectives from Path Dependency and Punctuated Equilibrium Theories

Since 1957, various Ghanaian governments have made, and continue to make, attempts to reform the administrative state for development. In spite of this, not much seems to have been achieved over the years. Why has the passion of successive governments for reforming the administrative system failed to yield the desired outcomes? What is the nexus between regime turnover and frequent administrative reforms? Where do we want to go, and what will take us there or at least close to our intended destination? What approach is likely to maximize the chances of success and minimize those of failure? We argue that administrative reforms in Ghana have been consistently undermined by the discontinuity of reform initiatives undertaken by successive governments; the inability to have a “national agenda for development”; continuous reliance on expatriates as consultants and advisers; over-reliance on multinational institutions for financial support; and by the absence of a “developmental state.”     

Welfare Dynamics in Pakistan and Ethiopia – Does the Estimation Method Matter?

Identifying household-level welfare dynamics and associated dynamic poverty trap thresholds can have important implications for the targeting of poverty reduction policies. The small existing empirical microeconomic literature has found evidence both for and against poverty traps. Using household panel data from rural Pakistan and Ethiopia, this article examines whether these different results are likely driven by differences in estimation methods or whether they reflect actual differences across settings. It applies the estimation methods from the existing literature to the same two datasets and also proposes a novel semiparametric panel data estimator that combines the advantages of the previous fully parametric and nonparametric approaches. The results suggest that absent any dynamic poverty trap thresholds the effect of using different estimation methods is secondary, having a small influence on the estimated long-term level of household well-being but not the identification of multiple dynamic welfare equilibria and associated dynamic poverty thresholds. Households in rural Pakistan and Ethiopia seem to be stuck in a static, structural-type poverty trap facing an expected level of long-term well-being that places them squarely in poverty.     

International capital mobility and Third World development: Compatible marriage or troubled relationship?

The current surge of foreign capital to the Third World resembles that of the 1970s. The channels are now different but the extra-regional flows are again predominantly to Latin America followed by East Asia. Many of the Latin American countries whose overborrowing brought on the 1980s debt crisis are again overborrowing to compensate for low savings rates and other structural flaws, putting their balance of payments at increasing risk. The likelihood that this time they can handle the rising debt servicing and impending slowing of the inflows sans prolonged crisis or a major retreat from their market liberalization policies is not very high, whereas the East Asian countries appear once more structurally capable of riding out the repercussions from an international financial market pullback.