The Politics of Administrative Reforms in Ghana: Perspectives from Path Dependency and Punctuated Equilibrium Theories

Since 1957, various Ghanaian governments have made, and continue to make, attempts to reform the administrative state for development. In spite of this, not much seems to have been achieved over the years. Why has the passion of successive governments for reforming the administrative system failed to yield the desired outcomes? What is the nexus between regime turnover and frequent administrative reforms? Where do we want to go, and what will take us there or at least close to our intended destination? What approach is likely to maximize the chances of success and minimize those of failure? We argue that administrative reforms in Ghana have been consistently undermined by the discontinuity of reform initiatives undertaken by successive governments; the inability to have a “national agenda for development”; continuous reliance on expatriates as consultants and advisers; over-reliance on multinational institutions for financial support; and by the absence of a “developmental state.”     

Welfare Dynamics in Pakistan and Ethiopia – Does the Estimation Method Matter?

Identifying household-level welfare dynamics and associated dynamic poverty trap thresholds can have important implications for the targeting of poverty reduction policies. The small existing empirical microeconomic literature has found evidence both for and against poverty traps. Using household panel data from rural Pakistan and Ethiopia, this article examines whether these different results are likely driven by differences in estimation methods or whether they reflect actual differences across settings. It applies the estimation methods from the existing literature to the same two datasets and also proposes a novel semiparametric panel data estimator that combines the advantages of the previous fully parametric and nonparametric approaches. The results suggest that absent any dynamic poverty trap thresholds the effect of using different estimation methods is secondary, having a small influence on the estimated long-term level of household well-being but not the identification of multiple dynamic welfare equilibria and associated dynamic poverty thresholds. Households in rural Pakistan and Ethiopia seem to be stuck in a static, structural-type poverty trap facing an expected level of long-term well-being that places them squarely in poverty.     

State disintegration and power politics in post-Suharto Indonesia

This article illustrates how discourses on ‘state fragility’ have been instrumentalised by the Indonesian military in order to consolidate its political and economic power after the fall of Suharto. In the wake of Indonesia’s transition to democracy violent conflicts escalated in East Timor, Aceh, Papua, the Moluccas and Sulawesi. Most notably East Timor’s successful secession spawned fears over the potential ‘balkanisation’ of Indonesia. In this context the Indonesian military, which had been shunned for its involvement in Suharto’s New Order, managed to re-establish itself as the ‘guardian of the nation’. Based on fieldwork in Indonesia, the article describes how post-9/11 discourses over a potential break-up of Indonesia were used by the Indonesian military to reconsolidate its power in the post-Suharto era. The research findings illustrate that, against the looming threat of state disintegration, attempts to revoke the military’s prerogatives have either failed or have been aborted during the planning stages.