Wound ballistics of the Kr?nlein shot

The "Kr?nlein" shot (evisceration of the brain) is a very rare injury of the skull caused by a high-velocity bullet. The requirement for this type of low-range shot wound is a broad opening of the skull with laceration of the dura mater. In the past, several cases of this particular injury have been reported and all led to immediate death.     

Uncertainty in probabilistic genotyping of low template DNA: A case study comparing STRMix™ and TrueAllele™

Two probabilistic genotyping (PG) programs, STRMix™ and TrueAllele™, were used to assess the strength of the same item of DNA evidence in a federal criminal case, with strikingly different results. For STRMix, the reported likelihood ratio in favor of the non-contributor hypothesis was 24; for TrueAllele it ranged from 1.2 million to 16.7 million, depending on the reference population. This case report seeks to explain why the two programs produced different results and to consider what the difference tells us about the reliability and trustworthiness of these programs. It uses a locus-by-locus breakdown to trace the differing results to subtle differences in modeling parameters and methods, analytic thresholds, and mixture ratios, as well as TrueAllele's use of an ad hoc procedure for assigning LRs at some loci. These findings illustrate the extent to which PG analysis rests on a lattice of contestable assumptions, highlighting the importance of rigorous validation of PG programs using known-source test samples that closely replicate the characteristics of evidentiary samples. The article also points out misleading aspects of the way STRMix and TrueAllele results are routinely presented in reports and testimony and calls for clarification of forensic reporting standards to address those problems.     

Post-Cabinet Careers of Regional Ministers in Germany, 1990–2011

The study of ministerial careers in Germany is rather new. So far it has been mainly restricted to the federal level and to the career pathways up until cabinet exit. This article, by contrast, concentrates on the post-cabinet careers of regional ministers. Drawing from the scarce literature we first sketch out career patterns of regional ministers prior to and during their time in the regional cabinet. The main focus, though, is on the post-cabinet biographies of all regional ministers in the sixteen German Länder since unification. Our empirical analysis reveals the regional cabinet as the career apex for most ministers. Looking at those ministers who do move up the political ladder after leaving the cabinet shows a clear preference for the national over the European level and the executive office over the legislative mandate. Variation in post-cabinet careers seems not only to be influenced by party, Land and ministerial office (Prime Minister vs normal minister) but also by the causes and circumstances of exit from the cabinet (exit type). These empirical results represent a first step into a new research field – lying waste since Blondel's early attempt in 1991 – and will hopefully provide a starting point for more comprehensive and comparative analysis.     

The Probability of Being Decisive

The probability of a voter being decisive (P_D), that is, of one vote affecting the outcome of an election, has generally been incorrectly calculated for the last twenty or more years. The method normally used is due to Banzhaf (1968) and generalised by Beck (1974). It assumes that voters know in advance how many people will vote for each candidate, which is clearly not the case. The correct formulation was given by Good and Mayer in 1975, but was ignored and has subsequently been all but forgotten since then. A simple explanation of these methods is given. Using the incorrect method, errors of magnitude of more than 10¹⁰⁰ in calculating P_D correctly can be made. The appropriateness of using a decision-theoretic formulation instead of a game-theoretic one is also discussed.