Predictors of Early Engagement in Home Visitation

Predictors of engagement in mothers receiving home visitation in the first year of service was examined. Early engagement was studied in three ways: (1) length of time active in the program during the first year of service (duration), (2) number of visits received (quantity), and (3) gaps in service between visits (consistency). Examined visits received in 515 first-time mothers in a Healthy Families America (HFA) program. Parameters of engagement were investigated, and predictors of engagement were identified using demographics and the Kempe Family Stress Inventory. Inclusive of the Assessment Visit, 31.8% of mothers disengaged prior to the first month of service. Remaining active in the program was associated with being Caucasian, and increased parenting risk (mental health/substance abuse history, low social support, increased stress). Most mothers had fewer home visits than prescribed. Gaps in prescribed service were common, with 89.4% of mothers experiencing gaps between visits of 1 month, and dropping to 16.4% having gaps of 2 months. In contrast to findings from clinic-based interventions, early engagement in home visitation is associated with lower levels of functioning and acute needs. These findings add to a growing body of literature suggesting that increased adversity promotes engagement in prevention programs in general, and home visitation programs in particular. To the extent that mothers who are actively engaged in home visitation are likely to have increased psychosocial needs, curricula may require modification and augmentation to address these needs and optimize program effectiveness.     

Battered women who kill their abusers: an examination of commonsense notions, cognitions, and judgments

It has been argued that battered women who kill their abusers represent a special class of defendants being unfairly treated in the legal system. As a result, commentators have argued for reforms to permit the judicial system to respond more fairly. Researchers have investigated the influences of these prescribed legal modifications and the possible influence of various demographic and psychological factors on legal reforms. However, social scientists have not yet asked some fundamental, psychological questions. Is the law consistent with what society believes is right and just? Is there a commonsense notion of justice in these cases? What factors constitute cognitive decision rules and influence judgments in cases of battered women who kill their abusers? This study uses a basic, psychological method to identify psychological factors that are important in judgments regarding battered women who kill and to better understand commonsense notions of justice in these cases.     

Federal Oversight, Local Control, and the Specter of "Resegregation" in Southern Schools

Analyzing data for the 100 largest districts in the South andBorder states, we ask whether there is evidence of "resegregation"of school districts and whether levels of segregation can belinked to judicial decisions. We distinguish segregation measuresbased on racial isolation from those based on racial imbalance.Only one measure of racial isolation suggests that districtsin these regions experienced resegregation between 1994 and2004, and changes in this measure appear to be driven largelyby the rising nonwhite percentage in the student populationrather than by district policies. Although we find no time trendin racial imbalance over this period, we find that variationsin racial imbalance across districts are nonetheless associatedwith judicial declarations of unitary status, suggesting thatsegregation in schools might have declined had it not been forthe actions of federal courts.     

Advances in Bayesian Time Series Modeling and the Study of Politics: Theory Testing, Forecasting, and Policy Analysis

John R. Freeman Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota, 267 19th Avenue, Minneapolis, MN 55455 e-mail: pbrandt{at}utdallas.edu (corresponding author) e-mail: freeman{at}polisci.umn.edu Bayesian approaches to the study of politics are increasinglypopular. But Bayesian approaches to modeling multiple time serieshave not been critically evaluated. This is in spite of thepotential value of these models in international relations,political economy, and other fields of our discipline. We reviewrecent developments in Bayesian multi-equation time series modelingin theory testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. Methodsfor constructing Bayesian measures of uncertainty of impulseresponses (Bayesian shape error bands) are explained. A referenceprior for these models that has proven useful in short- andmedium-term forecasting in macroeconomics is described. Oncemodified to incorporate our experience analyzing political dataand our theories, this prior can enhance our ability to forecastover the short and medium terms complex political dynamics likethose exhibited by certain international conflicts. In addition,we explain how contingent Bayesian forecasts can be constructed,contingent Bayesian forecasts that embody policy counterfactuals.The value of these new Bayesian methods is illustrated in areanalysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict of the 1980s.     

Microbial metagenome profiling using amplicon length heterogeneity-polymerase chain reaction proves more effective than elemental analysis in discriminating soil specimens

The combination of soil's ubiquity and its intrinsic abiotic and biotic information can contribute greatly to the forensic field. Although there are physical and chemical characterization methods of soil comparison for forensic purposes, these require a level of expertise not always encountered in crime laboratories. We hypothesized that soil microbial community profiling could be used to discriminate between soil types by providing biological fingerprints that confer uniqueness. Three of the six Miami-Dade soil types were randomly selected and sampled. We compared the microbial metagenome profiles generated using amplicon length heterogeneity-polymerase chain reaction analysis of the 16S rRNA genes with inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectroscopy analysis of 13 elements (Al, B, Ca, Cu, Fe, K, Mg, Mn, Na, P, S, Si, and Zn) that are commonly encountered in soils. Bray-Curtis similarity index and analysis of similarity were performed on all data to establish differences within sites, among sites, and across two seasons. These data matrices were used to group samples that shared similar community patterns using nonmetric multidimensional scaling analysis. We concluded that while chemical characterization could provide some differentiation between soils, microbial metagenome profiling was better able to discriminate between the soil types and had a high degree of reproducibility, therefore proving to be a potential tool for forensic soil comparisons.     

Violent Sex Offenses: How are They Best Measured from Official Records?

In the United States, sexually violent predator (SVP) commitment statutes generally require assessment of an offender's risk of subsequent sexual violence. Current actuarial methods for predicting sexual reoffending were actually designed to predict something else—charges or convictions for offenses deemed sexual based on information obtained from police “rapsheets” alone. This study examined the referral and past offenses of 177 sex offenders. Results showed that police rapsheets (and data based on them) underestimated the number and severity of sexually motivated violent offenses for which sex offenders were actually apprehended. Rapsheet violent offenses seemed a more accurate index of the conduct addressed by SVP legislation than were rapsheet sex offenses. We suggest that, when evaluating sex offenders for SVP status, actuarial instruments designed to predict violent recidivism (as measured by rapsheet violent reoffenses) might be preferable to those designed to predict sexual recidivism (as measured by rapsheet sexual reoffenses).

Drug screening and confirmation by GC-MS: comparison of EMIT II and Online KIMS against 10 drugs between US and England laboratories

Drug screening through urinalysis is a widely accepted tool for rapid detection of potential drug use at a relatively low cost. It is, therefore, a potentially useful method for detecting and monitoring drug use in a variety of contexts such as the criminal justice system, pre-employment screening and a variety of treatment centers. This article explores the efficacy of two commercially available drug-screening assays: Online KIMS assay (Roche) and EMIT II assays. First, we evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of two immunoassays. A total of 738 urine samples were collected among adult arrestee populations from Chicago, New Orleans and Seattle through the Arrestee Drug Abuse Monitoring (ADAM) program. Partial samples were split within one laboratory and analyzed by both enzymes multiplied immunoassay technique (EMIT) II and kinetic interaction of microparticle in solution (KIMS) assays for a 10-drug panel (amphetamine, barbiturates, benzodiazepines, marijuana, cocaine, methadone, methaqualone, opiate, phencyclidine and propoxyphene). Gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) was used as a confirmation method for all positives from either EMIT II or KIMS for all experiments. Second, the paper examines whether using different testing laboratories plays a role in the final results. The same experiments were repeated at two different testing locations: one in California and one in London and England. Third, the paper studies whether drug testing results vary between two laboratories when each of them had used their own routine screening method: the Forensic Science Service (FSS) at Birmingham, United Kingdom with KIMS assay and Medscreen Limited at London, United Kingdom with EMIT II. In summary, both EMIT II and KIMS assays generate fairly consistent results. The concordance rate against each of the 10 drugs tested is relatively high (97.4-100%). The discrepancies, in most cases, occurred at drug concentrations near the cut-off levels. There were more discrepant results between two laboratories compared to when specimens were analyzed at the same laboratory using two different assays.