What If? The Historian and the Counterfactual

This essay lays out why many scholars, particularly historians, are inherently skeptical of counterfactuals. It highlights several of the most obvious errors that are often made by those undertaking counterfactual reasoning. It also highlights how these articles go a long way toward developing effective rules for the appropriate and most effective use of counterfactuals.     

White Supremacist Activity and Crossburnings in North Carolina

This study examines whether the incidence of crossburnings rises in areas where white supremacist organizations, such as the Christian Knights of the Ku Klux Klan, have held rallies or demonstrations. Using data from two public interest groups, Klanwatch and North Carolinians Against Racial and Religious Violence, we track crossburnings and white supremacist activities in 100 North Carolina counties annually for the period 1987–1993. Various statistical models, including an event count analysis that allows each county to have its own level or reporting bias, indicate that the base rate at which crossburnings occur rises sharply in counties where a demonstration has taken place. Since none of the suspected crossburners has apparent ties to white supremacist groups, it may be that white supremacist rallies encourage fellow travelers to engage in this form of racial intimidation.     

AnUploaded Experience

<正>Remember the days when people used to have a phone,a computer and a camera?I do,simply because it wasn’t that long ago.However,as technology hurtles along at the speed of light,it might have escaped some people’s attention that these three devices now come together in the form of a smartphone.