Predictive accuracy of dynamic risk factors for aboriginal and non-aboriginal sex offenders: an exploratory comparison using STABLE-2007

Although Aboriginal offenders are overrepresented in Canadian prisons, there is limited research examining the extent to which commonly used risk factors and risk scales are applicable to Aboriginals. Aboriginal (n = 88) and non-Aboriginal (n = 509) sex offenders on community supervision were compared on the dynamic risk factors of STABLE-2007. Data on sexual, violent, any crime, and any recidivism (including breaches) were collected with an average follow-up of 3.4 years. Aboriginal offenders scored significantly higher than non-Aboriginal offenders on STABLE-2007 total scores and on several items measuring general criminality. STABLE-2007 did not significantly predict recidivism with Aboriginal offenders (although it did for non-Aboriginals). The general antisociality items were generally significantly less predictive for Aboriginals than non-Aboriginals, whereas items assessing sexual self-regulation and relationship stability predicted similarly for both groups. These exploratory results suggest that Aboriginal sex offenders are a higher-needs group but that some STABLE-2007 items are not predictive with this population.     

Relationships between characteristics of teachers and teachers' assessments of sources of information

The Researchers' primary purpose was to explore relationships between (a) urban area secondary school teachers' assessments of thirty three sources of information apt to influence their practice and (b) specific characteristics of these teachers. A sample of 245 teachers, or 61% of the set contacted, participated. Qualitative and quantitative analyses of data offered by the respondents were carried out. Both predictable and perplexing outcomes of the data analyses were documented. The Researchers concluded: a) That demographic profiles of teachers can be discerned which are related to assessments of various information sources; and b) that teachers' needs for information can be linked to preferred sources of information. They were unable to explain why variables like years of teaching experience, sex, and age were related significantly to teachers' assessments of sources of information.     

Theoretical issues and social indicators: A societal process approach

Well-being involves various levels: the individual, the institutional-distributive, and the societal. These levels are interrelated. Social indicators of well-being must be theoretically based so as to take into account these levels. A societal process model is proposed to describe the levels of society and the nature of well-being at each level. Social indicator types regarding the output and distribution of well-being, the effect of policy manipulatable and nonmanipulatable inputs, and the secondary consequences of inputs are suggested and examples are provided.The ideas presented herein have evolved from the authors' participation in a research project conducted for the U.S. Agency for International Development (AID/csd—3642), but do not necessarily reflect the views of that agency. Thanks are extended to J. Steven Picou, James Copp, Jon Alston, Bill Howard, and Ben Crouch, as well as to the then editor of this journal, Garry Brewer, and several anonymous reviewers who were kind enough to provide both cogent critique and encouragement. Journal Paper No. J-8808 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment station, Ames, Iowa. Project No. 1837.     

In search of reasonable doubt

A number of different approaches have been used to quantify jurors' use of the decision criterion known as reasonable doubt. The purpose of the present study was to determine which of a select group of these approaches could be utilized to match the actual decisions of individuals role-playing jurors for an assault trial. Simon's (1970) rank-order approach, a self-report approach, an approach derived from Statistical Decision Theory (Fried, Kaplan, & Klein, 1975), and one derived from Justice White's explanation of theJohnson v. Louisiana (1972) decision were each used to estimate values for reasonable doubt. The estimates were then used to recreate the individual decisions, and the recreated decisions were then compared to the actual decisions. The results indicated that every approach accurately matched the actual decisions at a better-than-chance rate, although the rank-order and decision theory approaches were most accurate. The reasonable doubt estimates obtained from each of the approaches were also used to examine the basic assumption underlying the Thomas and Hogue (1976) juror decision model. Only the estimates from the decision theory approach provided consistent support for the assumption. A variety of methods were suggested for more definite determinations of the accuracy of the approaches tested, and the relative merits of the approaches were discussed.     

Stray bullets and “mushrooms”: Random shootings of bystanders in four cities, 1977–1988

Bystanders killed by bullets not specifically intended for them have long been a very small part of the homicide problem. But the frequency of press accounts of such killings and woundings has apparently increased nationally in recent years. To test this impression, we compiled all shootings of bystanders hit at random and reported in the published indexes of theNew York Times, theLos Angeles Times, and theWashington Post for 1977–1988, as well as a key word computer search of stories in theBoston Globe. We found a rapid increase in both bystander woundings and killings since 1985 in all four cities. The base rate was quite low, and total bystander deaths appear to comprise less than 1% of all homicides in these cities. Nonetheless, the numbers were large enough to show that most bystanders reported shot in New York and Los Angeles are victims of random shootings into crowds, rather than single stray bullets striking a lone individual mushroom. The reverse was true in Boston and Washington, with the effect of much lower rates of bystanders reported shot in those cities.     

Leaving the Australian Labor Force: An Extended Encounter with the State

This article seeks to demonstrate the way in which labor market choices are shaped by institutional arrangements devised by the state. Since these arrangements differ markedly from country to country, much that is distinctive about national labor market outcomes is a function of diverse encounters with the state. This argument is illustrated by an account that explains why Australia, a country which apparently devotes little in the way of public resources to the old, manifests an exceptionally high level of early retirement. This account shows that, in contrast to the standard European welfare state strategy of public pensions, the Australian state has over many decades tackled the need for provision for the old by encouraging retirement strategies that are not subsidized directly from the public purse. These strategies include the encouragement of widely dispersed home ownership and occupational pensions. Read broadly, the article suggests that the extremity of contrasts frequently made between the advanced welfare states of Western Europe and the miserable social policy outcomes in the democracies of the New World have been far too extreme. The article experiments with novel presentational techniques designed to focus attention on individual choices and on policy outcomes for the individual rather than policy outputs by governments.