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Franco Mattei 《Electoral Studies》1998,17(4):443-461
The success of House incumbents at the polls is well known and has been studied extensively. This paper focuses on the incumbents' success in the polls: the support bestowed upon incumbents by survey respondents is substantially higher than that received from the voters. The incumbency advantage at the polls, estimated at about 10% in the most recent elections, is almost doubled when measured in the polls. The data, drawn from the 1982–1996 National Election Studies, show that respondents do not reward all winners; candidates elected to open seats have not benefitted from the kind of bounce consistently enjoyed by winning incumbents. In addition, the pattern of respondents' misreports appears to be inconsistent with earlier explanations based on instrument effects. Respondent bias should be accounted for in order to reach correct estimates of the incumbency advantage in individual-level data. 相似文献
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Grace R. Kalfus Joseph R. Ferrari Patricia Arean David Balser Rose Cotronea Maria Franco William Hill 《Law and human behavior》1987,11(1):63-67
On January 1, 1985, the mandatory seat belt law went into effect in New York State; violators were now subject to a fine of $50.00. Police officers issued nonpenalty-based warnings during the month prior to the law's imposition. The purpose of the present study was to compare the effects of the warning versus the fine and a fine-plus-prompt condition (the prompt delivered by the experimenters) on seat belt use on a university campus. Results indicated that significantly more drivers used their sear belts during the fine conditions as compared with the warning condition and that significantly more female drivers used their seat belt during all conditions. A significant difference was not found, however, between the fine and fine-plus-prompt conditions.We gratefully acknowledge the comments of Michael Leippe on an earlier draft of this manuseript. 相似文献
105.
Errors in sample handling or test interpretation may cause false positives in forensic DNA testing. This article uses a Bayesian model to show how the potential for a false positive affects the evidentiary value of DNA evidence and the sufficiency of DNA evidence to meet traditional legal standards for conviction. The Bayesian analysis is contrasted with the "false positive fallacy," an intuitively appealing but erroneous alternative interpretation. The findings show the importance of having accurate information about both the random match probability and the false positive probability when evaluating DNA evidence. It is argued that ignoring or underestimating the potential for a false positive can lead to serious errors of interpretation, particularly when the suspect is identified through a "DNA dragnet" or database search, and that ignorance of the true rate of error creates an important element of uncertainty about the value of DNA evidence. 相似文献
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Cameriere R Ferrante L Mirtella D Rollo FU Cingolani M 《Journal of forensic sciences》2005,50(4):770-773
Many studies have examined the characteristics of the frontal sinuses and their use for forensic purposes, particularly when an individual is edentulous. One of the most widespread classification systems is that proposed by Yoshino et al. The aim of this study was to improve the performance of Yoshino's method for identifying unknown skeletal remains by replacing the first two morphological items, frontal sinus size and bilateral asymmetry, by SOR1 = left frontal sinus area/left orbit area, and SOR2 = right frontal sinus area/right orbit area. According to the bivariate distribution of SOR = (SOR1, SOR2) and available data, we also estimated the probability of positive misclassification. 相似文献
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In this study, DNA extracted from known buccal samples was combined into two component mixture samples. These were subjected to UV exposure prior to their amplification with the Promega PowerPlex® 16HS amplification kit, and subsequent capillary electrophoresis on the ABI 3130xl instrument. Damaged samples were subjected to enzymatic repair treatment and retested to assess the amount of repair. Data showed that there is fidelity associated with the application with profile concordance after its use, and a corresponding increase in the amount of recovered alleles post damage. Results also showed changes in the stochastic relationship between mixture components that appear to be induced by the repair process itself. The mixture ratios of DNA samples were altered from an approximate original 1:3 ratio, to a ratio of 1:2 or greater. This variation can have a significant effect regarding the ability to reliably de-convolute DNA mixtures that have been subjected to the repair process. 相似文献
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