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41.
Electoral Accountability in a Federal System: National and Provincial Economic Voting in Canada 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Are federal incumbents punished for national and/or provincialeconomic performance, and are provincial incumbents held accountablefor the state of the provincial and/or national economy? Usinga pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis of electoral resultsand macroeconomic data for 19532001, this article exploresthe extent to which provincial and federal incumbents in Canadianelections are affected more by national or provincial economicconditions. The results of the analysis suggest that federalincumbents would not gain many votes by claiming credit forthe economic prosperity of any particular province when, onaverage, national economic conditions are deteriorating. Theresults further suggest that provincial incumbents are not heldaccountable for economic conditions in their provinces, butare rather punished for national economic deterioration whenthe incumbent federal party is of the same partisan family. 相似文献
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Francois Melese Raymond Franck Diana Angelis John Dillard 《International Public Management Journal》2013,16(4):357-385
ABSTRACT This article uses Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) to help characterize, explain, and ultimately reduce the cost growth that plagues many of today's major investments in military capabilities. There is mounting evidence of a systematic bias in initial cost estimates of new weapon systems purchased by the U.S. military. Unrealistically low cost estimates result in cost overruns. Fixing cost overruns can substantially impact public budgets and military readiness. Cost estimates serve a dual function: first, as an integral part of the decision-making process to evaluate military purchases/investments, and second, as a baseline for future defense budgets. In the first case, underestimating costs can result in too many new weapon program starts and excessive investments in those systems. In the second case, unrealistically low cost estimates result in overly optimistic budgets. Budgets planned on the basis of optimistic cost estimates create the illusion of more resources available than actually exist. Two factors are often blamed for unrealistically low cost estimates: bad incentives (psychological and political-economic explanations), and bad forecasts (methodological explanations). While briefly exploring the former, the focus of this study is on cost estimating methodology. Conventional public cost estimating techniques focus on the production costs of public purchases (input costs, learning curves, economies of scale and scope, etc.). The goal of this article is to improve cost estimates by expanding conventional cost estimating methodology to include TCE considerations. The primary insight of TCE is that correctly forecasting economic production costs of government purchases or acquisitions is necessary, but not sufficient. TCE emphasizes another set of costs—coordination and motivation costs (search and information costs; decision, contracting, and incentive costs; measurement, monitoring, and enforcement costs, etc.). This study encourages public officials and cost analysts to capture these costs and to understand key characteristics of public-private transactions (uncertainty, complexity, frequency, asset specificity, and market contestability) to generate more complete and reliable cost estimates and improve public sector purchases. 相似文献
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Murder-suicide, homicide-suicide, and dyadic death all refer to an incident where a homicide is committed followed by the perpetrator's suicide almost immediately or soon after the homicide. Homicide-suicides are relatively uncommon and vary from region to region. In the selected literature that we reviewed, shooting was the common method of killing and suicide, and only 3 cases of homicidal hanging involving child victims were identified. We present a case of dyadic death where the method of killing and suicide was hanging, and the victim was a young woman. 相似文献
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du Vignaux Hubert; Gouzard Camille; Gehringer Axel; Byers David; Cuccia Stefano; Wagner Henri; Zijp Petra; Cuenca Jose Manuel; Azanza Yolanda; Bushner Daniel; Parry Jonathan 《Capital Markets Law Journal》2006,1(1):89-112
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Ph. du Jardin J. Ponsaill V. Alunni-Perret G. Quatrehomme 《Forensic Science International Supplement Series》2009,192(1-3)
Forensic anthropologists are frequently asked to assess partial or badly damaged skeletal remains.One such request led us to compare the predictive accuracy of different mathematical methods using four non-standard measurements of the proximal femur (trochanter–diaphysis distance (TD), greater–lesser trochanter distance (TT), greater trochanter width (TW) and trochanter–head distance (TH)). These measurements were taken on 76 femurs (38 males and 38 females) of French individuals. Intra- and inter-observer trials did not reveal any significant statistical differences. The predictive accuracy of three models built using linear and non-linear modelling techniques was compared: discriminant analysis, logistic regression and neural network. The neural network outperformed discriminant analysis and, to a lesser extent, logistic regression. Indeed, the best results were obtained with a neural network that correctly classified 93.4% of femurs, with similar results in males (92.1%) and females (94.7%). Univariate functions were less accurate (68–88%). Discriminant analysis and logistic regression, both using all four variables, led to slightly better results (88.2% and 89.5%, respectively). In addition, all the models, save the neural network, led to unbalanced results between males and females. In conclusion, the artificial neural network is a powerful classification technique that may improve the accuracy rate of sex determination models for skeletal remains. 相似文献
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Antje du Bois-Pedain 《Criminal Law Forum》2017,28(3):391-435
This article develops an ideal of sentencing discretion as consisting in sufficient dispositional flexibility for the trial judge to set, on behalf of the polity, reasonable terms for the continuance of relations with the offender in view of his crime. This ideal requires trial judges to have what may be termed “substantial” sentencing discretion: discretion that is exercised with direct reference to the values and goals penal sanctions are expected to serve, and where it is this quality of value-based engagement that provides the justification for the decision. The article engages with empirical research into sentencing that helps us address the strength of the case for and against substantial sentencing discretion, and ultimately defends substantial sentencing discretion on functional as well as ethical–political grounds. 相似文献
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