‘We Are All Poor Here’: Economic Difference,Social Divisiveness and Targeting Cash Transfers in Sub-Saharan Africa

While the central thrust of Michael Lipton's work has been the crucial role of productivity gains in small farm agriculture for rural poverty reduction, in many sub-Saharan African countries this desirable outcome has stubbornly refused to materialise, and growing numbers of rural poor people are found persistently to fail to secure even minimal acceptable levels of food consumption. A social protection policy response is to target social cash transfers to the chronic extreme poor. This article focuses on the level of cash transfers relative to income differences between households in the bottom half of the income distribution, and the social tensions that arise from beneficiary selection and exclusion. It is found that cash transfers to target groups such as ‘the poorest 10 per cent’ or the ‘ultra-poor labour constrained’ must be set low, even below the welfare levels they seek to achieve, if they are to avoid socially invidious reshuffling of the income distribution. The article identifies critical trade-offs between the cost and coverage of different types of social transfer, their social acceptability and their political traction, helping to explain the reluctance of governments to adopt scaled-up poverty-targeted transfers as the preferred form of social cash transfer to those most in need in their societies.     

Determinants and directions for Chinese weapons imports

This article assesses and presents the determinants and directions of Chinese acquisitions of weapons and weapons technology from abroad, focusing on major conventional weapons and their relevant technologies. Following a brief development of historical themes which continue to affect Chinese military‐related imports today, the study considers the principal contemporary domestic and international determinants which contribute to shaping Chinese arms import policies, and the type of foreign arms acquisitions likely to result from those policies. In analysing past and current security policies, weapons development policies, foreign weapons procurement policies, the study reaches four main conclusions. First, a wide range of problems — including prohibitive cost, political and bureaucratic infighting, absorptive capacities, managerial and administrative roadblocks, and supplier controls — stand in the way of a Chinese military modernization strategy based on foreign procurement. Second, with the exception of Sino‐Soviet cooperation in the 1950s, Chinese arms and arms technology acquisitions from abroad have consistently been relatively modest, sporadic, and problematic. Even in the case of current transfers from such suppliers as Israel and Russia, it is unclear the extent to which these countries are willing to part with significant amounts of top‐of‐the‐line systems and technologies. Third, the impact upon international security of the improvement of Chinese military capability through the acquisition of foreign weapons and technology is not likely to manifest itself in violent military disruptiveness, but rather in the nuanced and steady expansion of Chinese power and influence in parts of East Asia around China's periphery. Fourth, the military capabilities of China's arms clients will probably not be significantly improved through the acquisition of foreign weapons and weapons technologies by China. In sum, Chinese military modernization through arms and technology imports will continue to be a slow and painful process.     

Books in Brief

Ernesto Laclau and Chantal Mouffe, HEGEMONY & SOCIALIST STRATEGY—TOWARDS A RADICAL DEMOCRATIC POLITICS (London: Verso, 1985), trans. by Winston Moore and Paul Cammack.

Chris Rojek, capitalism and leisure theory (London and New York: Methuen, 1985)

Stanley Aronowitz and Henry A. Giroux, education under siege—THE CONSERVATIVE, LIBERAL AND RADICAL DEBATE OVER SCHOOLING (South Hadley: Bergin and Garvey Publishers, 1985).

Bertell Ollman and Edward Vernoff. THE LEFT ACADEMY: MARXIST SCHOLARSHIP ON AMERICAN CAMPUSES, VOLUME 1.

—THE LEFT ACADEMY: MARXIST SCHOLARSHIP ON AMERICAN CAMPUSES, VOLUME 2, (New York: Praeger, 1984).

Alam Blum and Peter McHugh. SELF REFLECTION IN THE ARTS AND SCIENCES, (Atlantic Highlands, N.J.: Humanities Press, 1984).

Bottomore, Tom, with Laurence Harris, V. G. Kiernan, and Ralph Miliband. A DICTIONARY OF MARXIST THOUGHT. (Cambridge, Massachusetts: Harvard University Press, 1983)

Resnick, Stephen, and Richard Wolff, eds. rethinking marxism: Essays for Harry Magdoff & Paul Sweezy. (Brooklyn, New York: Au‐tonomedia, 1985).

Adam Przeworski, capitalism and social democracy (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1985)

Gosta Esping‐Andersen, politics against markets: the social democratic road TO power (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1985)

CUBA: twenty‐five years of revolution—1959–1984 (New York: Praeger, 1985), edited by Sandor Halabsky and John M. Kirk.

Barry Barnes, about science (New York: Basil Blackwell, 1985)     

“What If” History Matters? Comparative Counterfactual Analysis and Policy Relevance

Developing strong, policy-relevant causal explanations for major events in world politics often requires identification and rejection of weak counterfactual claims. Poorly constructed counterfactual arguments reveal serious deficiencies that undercut the necessary condition theories from which they are derived. Stronger explanations of historical events emerge when these weaknesses are weighed against the strengths of competing counterfactuals. Comparing the relative plausibility of competing (weak versus strong) counterfactual claims about the same event is the essence of comparative counterfactual analysis (CCA). When combined with process tracing, CCA can help to generate policy relevant findings by resolving many of the methodological pitfalls researchers confront when each method is applied in isolation.     

Quantitative Analysis of the DNA Distribution on Cigarette Butt Filter Paper*

The distribution of DNA on the filter paper of smoked cigarette butts was quantitatively mapped using real‐time quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The filter papers from smoked cigarette butts collected from indoor and outdoor sources were sliced into equal pieces and the amount of DNA on each slice was determined. This study found that the cigarette butt filter papers sliced parallel to the seam of the cigarette had more uniformly distributed DNA on the slices and in most cases, there was enough DNA on each slice to obtain a complete DNA profile. The perpendicular slices had a less uniform pattern of distribution and some slices did not have enough DNA to obtain an interpretable DNA profile. Cigarette butts found indoors also had more DNA per cigarette on average than cigarette butts found outdoors.     

The Effects of Legal and Extralegal Factors on Detention Decisions in US District Courts

The Bail Reform Act of 1984 changed the law dictating release and detention decisions in federal court. Since its passage, few studies have examined judicial decision-making in this context. Legal research enables us to account for the structure and interpretation of federal detention laws and to analyze previously neglected measures of legal factors in our analyses. We use US Sentencing Commission data on a sample of defendants who were sentenced in 2007 (N?=?31,043). We find that legal factors—particularly length of criminal history, having committed a violent or otherwise serious offense, and having committed the offense while under supervision of the criminal justice system—have the strongest relationships with the presentence detention outcome. A defendant’s age, race, and ethnicity have weaker relationships with detention. When we compare defendants who are similarly situated with respect to legal factors, the probability of detention is similar regardless of age, race, and ethnicity.     

Secret seducers

At the end of the 1990s, a moral panic erupted in the Netherlands about the phenomenon of what came to be known as ‘loverboys’. The suspicion was that a growing number of Dutch girls were being groomed by handsome young men who employed all sorts of devious methods to prepare their girlfriends for life as a prostitute. Stories about a new generation of pimps, often of Moroccan origin, regularly appeared in the Dutch media. In this article, based on ethnographic fieldwork on pimps operating in the red-light district of Amsterdam, we describe the ways in which these young men operate and how they justify their behaviour. On the basis of empirical research we intend to present a more realistic picture of what goes on in the prostitution industry and highlight the discrepancy between what is reported in the media and what is actually happening in the prostitution sector. We also examine the background to the moral panic about loverboys and the ways in which these young men were supposedly able to induce many young girls into becoming prostitutes.     

After the sunset: the residual effect of temporary legislation

The difference between permanent legislation and temporary legislation is the default rule of termination: permanent legislation governs perpetually, while temporary legislation governs for a limited time. Recent literature on legislative timing rules considers the effect of temporary legislation to stop at the moment of expiration. When the law expires, so does its regulatory effect. This article extends that literature by examining the effect of temporary legislation beyond its expiration. We show that in addition to affecting compliance behavior which depends on statutory enforcement, temporary legislation also affects compliance behavior which does not depend on statutory enforcement, and more generally, organizational behavior after a sunset. When temporary legislation expires therefore, it can continue to administer regulatory and other effects. We specify the conditions for this process and give the optimal legislative response.