Exchange Rate Volatility and Democratization in Emerging Market Countries

We examine some of the consequences of financial globalization for democratization in emerging market economies by focusing on the currency markets of four Asian countries at different stages of democratic development. Using political data of various kinds—including a new events data series—and the Markov regime switching model from empirical macroeconomics, we show that in young and incipient democracies politics continuously causes changes in the probability of experiencing two different currency market equilibria: a high volatility "contagion" regime and a low volatility "fundamentals" regime. The kind of political events that affect currency market equilibration varies cross-nationally depending on the degree to which the polity of a country is democratic and its policymaking transparent. The results help us better gauge how and the extent to which democratization is compatible with financial globalization.     

Notes on social indicators: Promises and potential

Widespread interest in social indicators—indeed, what may be characterized as a new social movement—has developed among both social scientists and policymakers. The concept of social indicators, however, continues to be diffuse and there are exaggerated claims of the utility of indicators. Deficiencies in both conceptualization and method limit the potential of indicators for such tasks as priority setting and program evaluation. Moreover, the development of social accounts, based on the analogy with economic accounts, is fallacious. Redirection in effort and more realistic claims can reduce the possibility of an eventual decline in work on indicators and enhance the value of the movement for both policymakers and social scientists concerned with the analysis and prediction of social change.     

Characterization and validation studies of powerPlex 2.1, a nine-locus short tandem repeat (STR) multiplex system and penta D monoplex

In order to increase the power of discrimination for human identification purposes, a nine-locus short tandem repeat (STR) multiplex, the GenePrint PowerPlex 2.1 system (PowerPlex 2.1) developed by Promega Corporation and a separate pentanucleotide-repeat locus, Penta D, were tested. This megaplex system includes the highly polymorphic loci FGA, TPOX, D8S1179, vWA, Penta E, D18S51, D21S11, TH01, and D3S1358 and may be used in combination with the eight-locus STR multiplex, the GenePrint PowerPlex 1.1 system (PowerPlex 1.1) that has been previously developed. Three of the loci, TPOX, TH01 and vWA, have been included in both systems for quality control purposes. As with PowerPlex 1.1, PowerPlex 2.1 is also based on a two-color detection of fluorescent-labeled DNA products amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and provides a valuable tool for accurate and rapid allele determination. The primer sequences used in the PowerPlex 2.1/Penta D system are also presented in this report. To meet the "Quality Assurance Standards for Forensic DNA Testing Laboratories" (FBI), we tested the efficiency and reproducibility of the PowerPlex 2.1/PentaD system by several validation studies that were conducted as a joint project among seven laboratories. Validation tests included concordance studies, sensitivity, and species specificity determination, as well as performance in forensic and environmentally impacted samples. The results produced from these tests demonstrated the consistency and reliability of the PowerPlex 2.1/Penta D system.     

韩中文化产业和社会发展——浦项市和深圳市文化产业发展比较

随着东北亚国际交流日趋增多,海外留学和文化观光的机会迅速增加。韩中两国都致力于促进相互交流和共同发展,互派留学生人数分列第一,两国女性团体间的相互访问与交流也越来越多。文化事业的发展对韩国浦项和中国深圳的经济繁荣、社会发展起到了重要的促进作用。全球化时代,文化与市场相结合会爆发出巨大的发展能量。浦项和深圳通过振兴各种创意文化产业正在高速发展。今后,浦项和深圳更应互相学习借鉴、加强文化产业合作,继续走在城市发展的前列。     

Democracy,Al Qaeda,and the Causes of Terrorism: A Strategic Analysis of U.S. Policy

How will the strategy of spreading democracy affect the threat of terrorism from Al Qaeda and likeminded Islamic extremist groups? This article analyzes how spreading democracy would impact four different sets of underlying motivations that lead to this kind of terrorism. It will show that the widespread belief in the power of democracy is likely misplaced because democracy will be unlikely to change perceptions of occupation, will itself threaten Islamic identity and culture, will be unlikely to mitigate economic grievances, and will be unlikely to provide a more legitimate government than one based on religious law.     

Domestic violence and child participation: contemporary challenges for the 1980 hague child abduction convention

ABSTRACT

This article addresses two contemporary challenges for the 1980 Hague Child Abduction Convention: (i) domestic violence and (ii) child participation. It also outlines three components of a global socio-legal policy and research initiative undertaken to address these issues and, where relevant, their intersection. The published literature on these topics, including the children’s objections exception, is explored, as are the ways in which these challenges are addressed within some of the 101 Contracting States to the Convention and through the Guide to Good Practice on Article 13(1)(b) of the Convention. Regard is paid to the data provided by the statistical analysis of applications made under the Convention in 2015 by Lowe and Stephens, and the changes which will occur once the Recast of The European Brussels 11a Regulation comes into operation. The likely impact for 1980 Hague Convention abduction proceedings of the UK having left the European Union at 23.00 GMT on 31 January 2020 is contemplated. Other current international initiatives are discussed, including the development of a child-friendly version of the Convention through The International Association of Child Law Researchers. Training is a key to changing attitudes and upskilling family justice professionals to ensure the Convention operates in a fully child-centric way. This will maintain and strengthen the Convention by keeping it ‘fit for purpose’.