Constitutional Law in Twenty Years from Now

The principles of constitutional law as those of many other disciplines seem to develop and to be replaced by new paradigms in the light of globalization. The present article using the genre of constitutional futurology attempts to determine whether this change is real or an illusory impression, and to predict the future of constitutional law and of scholarship reflecting on constitutional issues. A mighty forecast emerges from the interplay of opposing forces. While the withering away of the constitutionalist paradigm is unlikely partly because of the lack of a new generation of legal scholars following new patterns of thinking, partly because there is no reason to assume that the prevalent socioeconomic order would cease to exist , the essay maps a number of possible challenges like genetic engineering or personal computers interconnected in the World Wide Web , which constitutionalists shall expect to face in theory and in practice alike.     

Hungary

European Journal of Political Research -     

Widows: Outsiders in rural economy and society in central European villages, 1558–1750

Due to the lack of micro-historical empirical studies, a general account of the situation of women in early modern rural societies of demesne lordship (Gutsherrschaft) is not possible, yet. Previous research has generally assumed that their economic position was difficult. Recent studies, however, aimed to modify this picture by emphasizing, in particular, their independent economic activities, especially with increasing age.This paper will address the position of widows in rural society. It will analyze land transfer contracts for three individual villages of the Northern Bohemian estate of Frýdlant between 1558 and 1750 and contrast the results with normative sources of the same estate. It will particularly deal with the question whether widows could work subject farms and holdings independently and how they secured livelihood after selling their properties.     

Institutional Suicide and Elite Coordination: The Spanish Transition Revisited

ABSTRACT

In the literature on democratisation, the Spanish case has a paradigmatic status, especially for the negotiations between the regime and the opposition. While these negotiations did stabilise the new regime, the transition was driven by the regime’s elites. The key event was the approval of the Law for Political Reform in November 1976, when the legislature voted its own demise. The change was done according to the rules of the system. To explain this reform, we offer a formal model of coordination and a statistical analysis of an original dataset of the 531 legislators. The reform was possible because of elites’ belief coordination.     

The problem of single parent/child paternity analysis--practical results involving 336 children and 348 unrelated men

In a certain amount of paternity investigations, only DNA from child and alleged father is analyzed, thus increasing the possibility of false paternity inclusions. The aim of this study was to determine how many wrong paternity inclusions could be detected in a rather small geographical area comparing empirical results from 336 children and 348 men (13-15 STRs were investigated per person). This comparison between each child and all unrelated men (i.e. all putative fathers from the other cases) with an especially designed computer program resulted in 116,004 man/child pairs. Less than three excluding STRs were found in 1666 child/unrelated man pairs (1.44% of the comparisons). At least one unrelated man with only two or less STR mismatches could be determined for 322 children (95.8% of all investigated children). In 26 comparisons no STR mismatches between a child and an unrelated man were detected, thus at least one and up to three "second father(s)" under 350 men could be found for 23 children, if the mother is excluded. Paternity probabilities between 95.475% and 99.996% were calculated. Our results underline the difficulties in motherless paternity cases using only STR analysis and advise great precaution in assigning verbal predicates such as "paternity proven" in those investigations.     

Metacarpal sexual determination in a Spanish population

Anthropologists and forensic pathologist determine the sex of skeletons by analyzing quantitative and qualitative characters in the bone remains. Generally, the skull and os coxae are the elements most used, but they are not always preserved. In such cases, the investigator needs to have available other techniques based on different remains. The aim of the present work is to develop and describe discriminating functions for sex determination in a recent Spanish population using metacarpal morphology. A sample of bones corresponding to a contemporary Spanish population deposited at the Complutense University of Madrid (UCM) was analyzed. This sample comprised 697 metacarpals, corresponding to 79 adult individuals (37 men and 42 women). These allowed us to obtain 120 unifactorial discriminant functions. We selected the 10 equations, one for each metacarpal from both hands, that provided the best sexual discrimination. The correct sex classification rank progressed from 81%, for right (R) metacarpals IV and V, to 91%, for left (L) metacarpal II. The results suggest that metacarpals are structures that can be used for sex determination in paleoanthropological and forensic identifications.