Inter-rater reliability of dynamic risk assessment with sexual offenders

Abstract

This paper describes the inter-rater reliability of the Structured Assessment of Risk and Need (SARN, formerly known as Structured Risk Assessment). The SARN is a structured framework for identifying sexual offenders’ dynamic risk factors. The SARN comprises 16 dynamic risk factors, categorized into four domains: Sexual Interests, Distorted Attitudes, Socio-Affective Functioning and Self-Management. Two studies, utilizing three samples, are reported. Study 1 examined the inter-rater reliability of four SARN cases with a sample of seven expert raters. Results indicated high inter-rater reliability amongst these participants. Study 2 examined the reliability of SARN with two samples who had received training before supplying inter-rater data (N=88). Results provided some support for the reliability of SARN. However, strength of reliability was dependent upon the method of analysis applied (percentage agreement, Cohen's Kappa, intra-class correlation coefficients). These results are discussed in terms of their clinical and methodological implications.     

Russia,NMD and the ABM treaty: The dangers of American unilateralism

In order to consolidate its strategic bilateral relations developed in Africa over the past 14 years, South Africa must choose five key ‘hubs’ (regional powers) in each of Africa's five sub-regions. In addition, South Africa should pick two additional ‘spokes’ (influential actors) in each sub-region. These 15 strategic partners can increase South Africa's engagement on the continent in the areas of diplomacy, conflict management, and trade relations. South Africa's bilateral relations would thus resemble a gigantic bicycle, with five hubs and ten spokes. The five hubs are Mozambique, Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), Ethiopia, and Algeria. The ten spokes would be Zimbabwe, Angola, Burundi, Rwanda, Ghana, Côte d'Ivoire, Sudan, Tanzania, Egypt and Libya. It is around these countries that South Africa can build solid strategic bilateral relationships in Africa.     

The impact of scale on management structures and processes

This paper advances the conjecture that the shift to a direct election of mayors in Israel, a most significant step towards recognising local authorities as political entities in their own right, has prevented further progress in the same direction. Hirschman's ‘getting stuck syndrome’ is used here to explore this paradox. Since a highly centralised system is not compatible with a ‘strong mayor system’, there developed an ingenious scheme — ’de facto decentralisation’ — a peculiar blend of formal ‘agency’ relationship, informal ‘partnership’ and ‘grey‐area’ autonomy. This scheme persists apparently because it is well suited to a world of ambiguous and conflicting imperatives.     

英国空想社会主义的社会建设思想来源、理论价值与现实意义

英国既是最早的资本主义国家,也是空想社会主义的发祥地.英国空想社会主义的社会建设思想没有脱离其产生的时代已有的各种学说的影响,这些学说包括柏拉图的社会改革思想,基督教和资产阶级的平等思想,人文主义、启蒙思想家的人性论和理性观念.英国空想社会主义的社会建设思想也是马克思恩格斯社会建设思想的重要理论来源.马克思恩格斯批判地继承了英国空想社会主义关于人的全面发展的思想、社会分配思想、社会福利思想与和谐社会理论.英国空想社会主义的社会建设思想对当代中国社会建设有着重要的启示意义.     

马克思的国际贸易伦理思想研究

马克思的国际贸易理论是马克思的政治经济学的重要内容,探讨马克思的国际贸易理论中的伦理思想,有利于我们把握与理解马克思的国际贸易理论的精神实质。马克思认为,国际贸易是资本主义生产方式的必然产物,正是资本主义生产方式的发展,促使了国际贸易的发展与世界市场的形成。从马克思历史观的维度看来,自由与平等是国际贸易的核心伦理精神,信用是国际贸易的伦理基础与伦理保障,国际贸易的发展离不开自由与平等,也需要信用为其保驾与护航。此外,在国际贸易中也要讲人道,人道是国际贸易对贸易主体所提出的伦理要求。     

海外所谓毛泽东乌托邦主义论评析

莫里斯·迈斯纳的乌托邦主义论是海外关于毛泽东社会主义观的一种有代表性的观点。海外对其乌托邦主义论也是一种有争议的观点。海外学者把毛泽东的社会主义观等同于乌托邦主义,是由于他们忽视了毛泽东的思想转变、缺乏全面深入的理论研究和从晚年毛泽东的错误出发等原因而造成的。     

计划与法律的关系——兼论《十一五规划纲要》实施的法律保障

计划不同于法律,为了实现计划的目标任务,计划有必要转化为法律,其转化为法律的途径主要有二:一是将计划的目标任务转化为法律,一是在立法中直接规定“计划”。《十一五规划纲要》是我国接下来的五年中最重要的计划,它的实现同样离不开法律的保障。     

Transitions through Out-of-Keeping Acts

Within a negotiation, when an act by one party is out-of-keeping with the previous moves and underlying logic of the interaction, the act and those that follow hold the potential for creating a transition to a new logic of interaction. In this paper, we investigate the presence and role of seven distinct types of transitions resulting from out-of-keeping acts across ten complex legal negotiations. The data reveal that a critical feature differentiating across the types is the abruptness/gradualness of the transition. We explore the combination of relational, informational, and procedural acts comprising the transitions and find that all three components are present across transitions, but in different proportions and orders. Understanding the role of out-of-keeping acts in negotiations facilitates a more complete picture of the microprocesses involved in the creation of critical moments in negotiations.