Measuring the correlation of shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries

This paper considers the question of the symmetry of inflation, exchange rate changes and GDP shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries. It applies a relatively new technique, the orthogonal GARCH model, which allows us to calculate a complete time varying correlation matrix for these countries. We can then examine the way the conditional correlation of shocks between the EU15 and the new member countries has been evolving over time. Our results suggest that the shocks which hit the EU are not symmetrical with those affecting the majority of new member countries. In addition, most of the new member countries seem to exhibit relatively low correlation with EU15.     

Russian Voting and the Initial Economic Shock of Hyperinflation

This paper addresses the issue of economicvoting in transitional democracies using data from the Russianfederal elections. It argues that the shock of inflation thatfollowed the fundamental economic reform has a lastinginfluence on voters. Specifically, it shows that in Russia,where inflationary policy led to hyperinflation and thewidespread loss of personal savings, the magnitude of savingslost at that time continues to explain a significant portionof the variation in the regional support for the Communistparty in parliamentary and presidential elections.     

在俄罗斯的中国人现状

作者近期对俄境内900名中国人做了调查.调查结果显示在俄华人主要是经商者、留学生和劳务人员.多数经商者认为俄罗斯是适合经商的地方,并打算长期在此经商.多数留学生认为俄罗斯对其有很大吸引力,但他们普遍俄语掌握得不好.中国劳务人员主要从事建筑业、农业、林业,他们吃苦耐劳,遵纪守法,是俄非常宝贵的劳动力资源.     

Detection of cannabinoids in homicide victims and motor vehicle fatalities

A gas chromatographic/mass spectrometric (GC/MS) procedure is described for the detection and measurement of delta 9-tetrahydrocannabinol, 11-hydroxy-delta 9-tetrahydrocannabinol, and 11-nor-delta 9-tetrahydrocannabinol-9-carboxylic acid in blood, or 11-nor-delta 9-tetrahydrocannabinol-9-carboxylic acid in urine. About 50% of all homicide victims and motor vehicle drivers killed in Bexar County in 1985 were tested for the presence of cannabinoids. Of 130 homicides and 69 drivers tested, blood was analyzed primarily in all but 15 and 3 cases, respectively. In these latter cases, blood analyzed after urine was found to be positive. Of the homicide victims, 44 (34%), and of all drivers, 19 (28%), tested were positive for one or more of the cannabinoids. As a separate group, 16 motorcycle drivers tested had 38% positive as compared with 25% of the other vehicle drivers. Ethyl alcohol was present in 55% of the drivers, and in 63% of the homicide victims. Drugs other than alcohol or cannabinoids were found in 10% of the drivers, and in 12% of the homicide victims.     

Capacity for Self-Control and Individuals' Interest in Exercising Self-Control

We identify and elaborate a conceptual distinction between capability for self-control and the desire to exercise it, and employ data from a city survey to explore the empirical viability of such a differentiation. Separate scales measuring ability and desire to exercise self-control both prove to be significant and moderately strong predictors of several measures of criminal/deviant behavior, showing independent, cumulative, and interactive relationships with each other. For some measures of crime/deviance, self-control capability is most effective when the individual's interest in exercising self-control is low but its effect is greatly reduced or eliminated when desire to exercise self-control desire is high. Combinations of capability for self-control and interest in exercising it prove to be particularly good predictors of the absolute level of misbehavior.