Old wine in new bottles: Democratic peace as empowerment of states in conflict resolution

Abstract.  This article examines the capacities of various regimes to master conflicts. The capacities of regimes are measured by an empowerment index that reflects more accurately the capacity of states to manage conflicts than measures of democracy. The study draws from a wide range of indicators to calculate values of the independent variables 'challenges' and 'support' for each existing state. In addition to these explanatory factors, regime factors are calculated independently. The dependent variable 'conflict' draws on the data set by Kosimo ( http://www.kosimo.de ) and is based on the number of conflicts occurring between 1945 and 2000. These conflicts are then considered in relation to the management capacities of each state. The analysis shows that the empowerment indicator is a better predictor of conflict involvement than the regime indicator. Cross-calculations also show that, not surprisingly, on the whole, democracies have had a better record in the management of conflicts than other regimes.     

Does democracy “suffer” from diversity? Issue representation and diversity in senate elections

Several recent studies examine the degree to which congressional behavior affects candidates’ electoral fortunes (e.g., Carson, 2005). Research examining electoral competitiveness (Bond, Campbell, & Cottrill, 2001; Koetzle, 1998) and roll call voting (Bailey & Brady, 1998; Jones, 2003) finds that diversity in the electorate mediates the impact of numerous variables upon election outcomes and representation. However, the influence of diversity on other modes of representation – such as the policy positions taken by Senate candidates–remains unexplored. We investigate the link between representation and Senate candidates’ policy positions and thereby examine the degree to which voter diversity affects candidates’ policy responsiveness. We find that diversity significantly influences responsiveness, both directly and indirectly – candidates in homogenous states are more responsive to constituents than are candidates in heterogeneous states.     

Terrorism and pork-barrel spending

The horrifying, tragic events of 9/11 made Americans aware of their vulnerability to terrorist attacks and triggered the creation of the Department of Homeland Security along with a substantial increase in federal spending to both thwart terrorist attacks and to increase our ability to respond to such emergencies. Much of this large increase in spending was in the form of direct transfers to states and cities through several grant programs. Homeland Security grants may be used for protection against terrorist activities, thereby enhancing public interests, or as wealth transfers to state and local governments, enhancing the reelection efforts of incumbents, and thus, private interests. Using 2004 per capita Homeland Security grant funding to states and their cities, we find that the funding formula used for some of the grant programs, which allocates almost 40% of the funds in some grant programs through a minimum percent to each state with the rest allocated based on population, means that per capita funding is related to electoral votes per capita, i.e., to the politics of Presidential re-election. However, the funding in other grant programs is also related to some of the dangers and vulnerabilities faced by states and their cities. Some of the variation in per capita grant allocations is also explained by the amount of airport traffic in the state and the state's population density, which are variables closely linked to the state's vulnerability to attack. Per capita Homeland Security grant allocations, however, do not seem to be related to the closeness of the 2000 presidential race.     

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Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Value Choices and American Public Opinion

Individual preferences among core values are widely believed to be an important determinant of political attitudes. However, several theoretical perspectives suggest that people experience difficulties making choices among values. This article uses data from the 1994 Multi-Investigator Study to test for hierarchical structure in citizens' value preferences. The empirical results show that most people make transitive choices among values and that their value preferences have an impact on subsequent issue attitudes. To the extent that citizens exhibit intransitive value choices and/or apparent difficulties in the "translation process" from value preferences to issue attitudes, it is due more to low levels of political sophistication than to the existence of value conflict.     

State Poverty Rates: Do the New Welfare Policies Make a Difference?

This article uses four models to identify the best predictors of state poverty levels and changes in state poverty rates since the implementation of welfare reform. The policy decisions based on the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act (PRWORA) by the states are tested along with more traditional variables identified in the literature. Using several measures of state poverty, the analysis finds that those states with the lowest poverty rates are those with the healthiest economies, and the most generous state spending on Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF). States with the highest percentage of their TANF rolls made up of black citizens tend to have the highest rates of poverty. Initial poverty rates are found to be important in that states with higher initial poverty levels are capable of generating a larger reduction in poverty than states with lower initial rates. With the exception of limited evidence on sanctions, none of the PRWORA–based policies were found to have any effect on poverty rates.