Evolving Market Efficiency with an Application to Some Bulgarian Shares

With new technically advanced methods and computers at our disposal, the efficient market hypothesis is once again being debated. At the same time, we are witnessing an unprecedented growth in both existing and new financial markets. These new markets are often in economies which have just recently embraced free market economics; we term these stock markets infant markets. Such stock markets are obviously not efficient in allocating the supply of savings to productive capital. We do not test whether or not these infant markets are informationally efficient, but instead examine whether and how they are becoming more efficient. We propose modelling the excess returns of individual securities using a multi-factor model with time-varying coefficients and generalised auto-regressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) errors. If the markets are becoming more informationally efficient or the agents are learning, we would expect this to manifest itself as the time-varying coefficients becoming more stable as time increases. We test our model using data on four Bulgarian shares. First, we estimate an AR(2) model and a GARCH-M(1,1) model for the shares. Then, we estimated our AR(2) model with time varying coefficients and GARCH type errors. We find varying levels of efficiency and varying speeds of movement towards efficiency within our sample of four shares.     

Did the Tax Reform Act of 1986 Improve Compliance? Three Studies of Pre- and Post-TRA Compliance Attitudes*

The Tax Reform Act of 1986 rewrote the federal income tax code, bringing it closer to policy professionals' vision of what constitutes an equitable and efficient income tax. Research on tax compliance suggests the law might have affected taxpayer compliance in three ways: by reducing opportunities to overstate deductions, by changing perceptions of fairness, and by altering tax liabilities. Changes in taxpayer perceptions, attitudes, and noncompliance intentions were examined in three bodies of survey data, each containing pre-and post-reform data from independent samples of the same population. The results show an improved normative climate for taxpayer compliance and point to both the feasibility and the importance of examining the effects of substantive tax policies on taxpayer perceptions, attitudes, and behavioral intentions.     

Prison mental health services: results of a national survey of standards, resources, administrative structure, and litigation

The formation of adequate mental health systems within prisons has accelerated as a result of successful class action lawsuits. Our recent national survey questioned all state correctional departments about the existence of standards in each system, compliance with such standards, prevalence of class action lawsuits involving the issue of providing adequate mental health services for inmates, issues related to consent decrees, available mental health resources within the correctional system, and the administrative structure of the mental health system. Our purpose was to identify those factors correlated with certified class action lawsuits involving issues related to mental health services. Twenty-one states were involved in such litigation. Only the presence of psychiatric hospitals operated by the department of corrections correlated with the presence of certified class action lawsuits involving mental health services. Prison systems larger than 15,000 inmates were at higher risk for such litigation. Smaller systems having psychiatric hospitals run by the state mental health agency appeared to be at less risk for such litigation.     

The decision to leave an abusive relationship: The testing of an alternative methodological approach

Most studies that consider the factors influencing the decision to leave an abusive relationship rely on retrospective, self-report data. In addition to the biased samples that are frequently obtained in such investigations, the methodological shortcomings of survey research limit its explanatory power, particularly when applied to such sensitive topics as family violence. This report introduces an alternative method for studying the decision to leave an abusive relationship. Forty-five men and 68 women were studied using an experimental computer game of an abuse-like relationship. The tendency to leave this relationship was measured under four differing conditions of severity and frequency of abuse. A logit analysis revealed that the frequency of abuse was more consequential to women's decisions to leave, while severity of abuse was more salient for men. In addition, the hypothesized model, including frequency of abuse, severity of abuse, and locus of control, fits well for women but not for men. The implications of these findings, as well as the validity and future application of experimental games, are discussed.     

Recovery of decomposed and skeletal human remains in the "Green River Murder" Investigation. Implications for medical examiner/coroner and police

The Green River Murder Investigation in King County, Washington, is currently the longest active serial murder investigation in U.S. history. During its course, over 26 separate scenes with from one to five victims each have been processed. The experience of the authors is presented in order to acquaint other agencies with techniques of outdoor scene processing that have evolved during recovery of remains from Green River and other skeletal cases.