The use of the likelihood ratio for evaluative and investigative purposes in comparative forensic handwriting examination

This paper extends previous research and discussion on the use of multivariate continuous data, which are about to become more prevalent in forensic science. As an illustrative example, attention is drawn here on the area of comparative handwriting examinations. Multivariate continuous data can be obtained in this field by analysing the contour shape of loop characters through Fourier analysis. This methodology, based on existing research in this area, allows one describe in detail the morphology of character contours throughout a set of variables. This paper uses data collected from female and male writers to conduct a comparative analysis of likelihood ratio based evidence assessment procedures in both, evaluative and investigative proceedings. While the use of likelihood ratios in the former situation is now rather well established (typically, in order to discriminate between propositions of authorship of a given individual versus another, unknown individual), focus on the investigative setting still remains rather beyond considerations in practice. This paper seeks to highlight that investigative settings, too, can represent an area of application for which the likelihood ratio can offer a logical support. As an example, the inference of gender of the writer of an incriminated handwritten text is forwarded, analysed and discussed in this paper. The more general viewpoint according to which likelihood ratio analyses can be helpful for investigative proceedings is supported here through various simulations. These offer a characterisation of the robustness of the proposed likelihood ratio methodology.     

Traumatic bilateral vertebral artery dissection

Traumatic vertebral artery dissection is not often seen by forensic pathologists, and cases investigated are scarce in the forensic literature. We present the case of a 40-year-old woman cyclist who was struck by a car while wearing a helmet, and was neurologically near normal immediately thereafter at Emergency. She presented 48 h later with acute right hemiparesis, decreasing level of consciousness, and unsteadiness. CT revealed massive cerebellar infarction. CT angiography was normal. The patient died in coma 7 days after injury and autopsy revealed bilateral edematous cerebellar infarction and bilateral vertebral artery dissection. Rotational neck injury and mural tear in the wall of the Atlantic parts of both vertebral arteries is suggested as the possible mechanism of the arterial injury. Head and neck injuries are reported as a precipitating cause of vertebral artery injury. The possible influence of trauma may be further underestimated if longer intervals between vessel dissection and ischemia occur. The current case illustrates that "talk-and-die" syndrome may be due to occult vertebral artery dissection, possibly bilateral. In forensic cases of delayed death after mild trauma to the head and neck, the vertebral arteries should be examined for the cause of death.     

Reporting a sudden death due to accidental gasoline inhalation

The investigation of uncertain fatalities requires accurate determination of the cause of death, with assessment of all factors that may have contributed to it. Gasoline is a complex and highly variable mixture of aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbons that can lead to cardiac arrhythmias due to sensitization of the myocardium to catecholamines or acts as a simple asphyxiant if the vapors displace sufficient oxygen from the breathing atmosphere. This work describes a sudden occupational fatality involving gasoline. The importance of this petroleum distillate detection and its quantitative toxicological significance is discussed using a validated analytical method. A 51 year-old Caucasian healthy man without significant medical history was supervising the repairs of the telephone lines in a manhole near to a gas station. He died suddenly after inhaling gasoline vapors from an accidental leak. Extensive blistering and peeling of skin were observed on the skin of the face, neck, anterior chest, upper and lower extremities, and back. The internal examination showed a strong odor of gasoline, specially detected in the respiratory tract. The toxicological screening and quantitation of gasoline was performed by means of gas chromatography with flame ionization detector and confirmation was performed using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. Disposition of gasoline in different tissues was as follows: heart blood, 35.7 mg/L; urine, not detected; vitreous humor, 1.9 mg/L; liver, 194.7 mg/kg; lung, 147.6 mg/kg; and gastric content, 116,6 mg/L (2.7 mg total). Based upon the toxicological data along with the autopsy findings, the cause of death was determined to be gasoline poisoning and the manner of death was accidental. We would like to alert on the importance of testing for gasoline, and in general for volatile hydrocarbons, in work-related sudden deaths involving inhalation of hydrocarbon vapors and/or exhaust fumes.     

Examining Rapport in Investigative Interviews with Suspects: Does its Building and Maintenance Work?

Rapport is an important part of the interviewing of suspects, enabling them to supply information more freely. This study examined 142 actual interviews with suspects, focussing on key tasks that aid rapport. Using an established framework to examine rapport building skills in the early stages of interviews, the study also measured how skilled attempts at sustaining rapport were when interviewers attempted to gather information from suspects and probe accounts for their reliability. It was found that opportunities were often missed to build rapport in the initial stages as several tasks were overlooked. Also, where any rapport had been initially built, it was not always maintained as tasks undertaken later in the interview which may well have assisted rapport maintenance were often conducted unsatisfactorily. Thus, initial rapport building of itself, therefore, is not sufficient in influencing overall interview quality and outcomes, since rapport also has to be maintained throughout the interview.     

Police Psychology in Singapore: The Red Dot Experience

Despite developments in police psychology in North America and Europe, little is known about developments in other parts of the world. Yet, this knowledge will reinforce the development of the field of police psychology internationally and strengthen its scientific theories, practices and programs. This paper therefore traces the development of police psychology in Singapore for over two decades across four waves of development. This paper also describes the developments in three areas of police psychology (services to police officers, police operations and the police organization) and details the various police psychological services programs and services in Singapore. The paper concludes with a discussion on strategic concerns for police psychologists worldwide, arguing that there is a need to discuss the ‘what works, when and where?’ in police psychology, when it is applied across the world.     

Single Types of Family Violence Victimization and Externalizing Behaviors Among Children and Adolescents

Prior research has provided substantial evidence that child maltreatment and exposure to physical intimate partner violence (IPV) are associated with increased externalizing behavior problems among children and adolescents. However, little is known about the effects of exposure to psychological IPV and exposure to the physical abuse of a sibling. Using a total sample (N = 2,572) and subsample (n = 441) of children ages 3–18 years old, the purpose of this study was to assess whether cumulative types of family violence lead to higher mean externalizing behavior scores and to examine the effects of single types of indirect and direct family violence on children’s mean externalizing behavior scores. Results confirmed that children who experienced any type of family violence victimization had higher mean externalizing behavior scores compared to children with no history of family violence; however, few differences in externalizing behavior scores were found as the number of family violence types increased. Children who experienced indirect types of family violence (e.g., exposure to the physical abuse of a sibling) had higher externalizing behavior scores than children who experienced direct maltreatment (e.g., child physical abuse). Findings from this study suggest that researchers and service providers should adopt a broader conceptualization of family violence victimization and increase the amount of services provided to children who are indirectly victimized.     

Spousal Rejection as a Risk Factor for Parental Rejection of Children

Limited information is available about the international generalizability of the common conclusion that marital discord tends to be associated with problematic parenting. Pakistan is a sociocultural context known for a high frequency of marital distress. Accordingly, this study draws from a sample of 270 Pakistani families with children between the ages of 9 to 13 years (M?=?11.21 years). In this study we explore the question: Are Pakistani children’s perceptions of maternal and/or paternal rejection related to their parents’ perceptions of spousal rejection? Results of a hierarchical multiple regression analyses showed that wives’ perceptions of husbands’ rejection predicted children’s perceptions of maternal rejection, as well as—but to a significantly lesser extent—children’s perceptions of paternal rejection. Similarly, husbands’ perceptions of wives’ rejection predicted children’s perceptions of paternal rejection, as well as—but to a significantly lesser extent—children’s perceptions of maternal rejection. Results of this research, along with the slim body of prior international research, suggests that the concept of “spillover effect” used to explain the association between spousal rejection and parental rejection may have widespread international applicability.     

Correlates of Substantiated Emotional Maltreatment in the Second Canadian Incidence Study

The objective of this study was to determine the correlates of substantiated psychological maltreatment (PMT) in Canada on functions of maltreatment characteristics, child profile, household profile, and child protection services interventions. This study is based on a secondary analysis of data collected in the second Canadian Incidence Study. PMT investigations were categorized into six groups: emotional abuse, emotional neglect, and other maltreatment as single form, and these same three groups when they co-occurred with another form of maltreatment. Six logistic regressions, comparing all pairs of groups, were carried out. Cases of PMT (single form) were more chronic and associated with greater adverse emotional impact than other forms of maltreatment. Mothers of psychologically maltreated children had more mental health issues. Emotional neglect cases were more complex (e.g., substance abuse, mental health, and social housing). The three co-occurrent groups present more negative factors but more risk factors are observed when PMT are also observed (e.g., emotional harm, alcohol abuse, housing problems, chronicity, and referral to other services).     

New estimates of U.S. currency abroad,the domestic money supply and the unreported economy

Despite financial innovations that have created important new substitutes for cash usage, per capita holdings of U.S. currency amount to $2950. Yet American households and businesses admit to holding only 15% of the currency stock, leaving the whereabouts of 85% unknown. Some fraction of this unaccounted for currency is held abroad (the dollarization hypothesis) and some is held domestically undeclared, as a store of value and a medium of exchange for transactions involving the production and distribution of illegal goods and services, and for transactions earning income that is not reported to the IRS (the unreported economy hypothesis). We find that the percentage of U.S. currency currently held overseas is between 30 and 37% rather than the widely cited figure of 65%. This finding is based on the official Federal Reserve/Bureau of Economic Analysis data which is a proxy measure of the New York Federal Reserve’s (NYB) “confidential” data on wholesale currency shipments abroad. We recommend that the NYB data be aggregated so as to circumvent confidentiality concerns, and be made readily available to all researchers in order to shed greater light on the questions of how much U.S. currency is abroad and on the particular location of overseas U.S. dollars. The newly revised official estimates of overseas currency holdings are employed to determine the Federal Reserve’s seigniorage earnings from 1964–2010, which have provided a $2950. Yet American households and businesses admit to holding only 15% of the currency stock, leaving the whereabouts of 85% unknown. Some fraction of this unaccounted for currency is held abroad (the dollarization hypothesis) and some is held domestically undeclared, as a store of value and a medium of exchange for transactions involving the production and distribution of illegal goods and services, and for transactions earning income that is not reported to the IRS (the unreported economy hypothesis). We find that the percentage of U.S. currency currently held overseas is between 30 and 37% rather than the widely cited figure of 65%. This finding is based on the official Federal Reserve/Bureau of Economic Analysis data which is a proxy measure of the New York Federal Reserve’s (NYB) “confidential” data on wholesale currency shipments abroad. We recommend that the NYB data be aggregated so as to circumvent confidentiality concerns, and be made readily available to all researchers in order to shed greater light on the questions of how much U.S. currency is abroad and on the particular location of overseas U.S. dollars. The newly revised official estimates of overseas currency holdings are employed to determine the Federal Reserve’s seigniorage earnings from 1964–2010, which have provided a 287 billion windfall for U.S. taxpayers. Overseas currency stock data are also used to derive estimates of the domestically held stock of currency as well as narrow and broad measures of domestic monetary aggregates. These domestic monetary aggregates are believed to be better predictors of future economic activity than traditional monetary aggregates and are tested to determine their ability to predict fluctuations in real output and prices. Domestic cash holdings are finally used to estimate the size of the U.S. unreported economy as measured by the amount of income that is not properly reported to the IRS. By 2010, we estimate that legal and illegal source unreported income” is $1.9–$1.9–2.4 trillion, implying a “tax gap” in the range of $400–$400–540 billion. Currently, we estimate that 18–23% of total reportable income is not properly reported to the IRS.     

Interaction orders of drug dealing spaces: local orders of sensemaking in a poor black American place

Based on ethnographic data, this essay analyzes the social order properties of a poor urban street, in a small city in the northeast United States, on which drug dealing is the principle occupation. Rather than treating drug dealing as an agent of disorder, we focus on the order properties of drug dealing and the ordered character of the local code of conduct that develops around it. Like Sudhir Venkatesh (American Journal of Sociology 103:82–111, 1997) we examine the interface between drug dealing and the neighborhood. However, in this small urban space the drug dealers are not outsiders, rather, they are long term residents: established insiders who are well integrated into community life. As such their work practices and the requirements they place on behavior in public spaces impact the neighborhood in comprehensive ways. We detail the phenomenon Elijah Anderson called the “code of the street” (Anderson 1999) as a set of practices and social markers, a local Interaction Order (Goffman, American Sociological Review 48:1–17, 1983; Rawls, Sociological Theory 2:136–149, 1987), that furnishes basic day to day sensemaking tools for residents (Rawls 2009). We propose that this order has a constitutive character that furnishes stable expectations (Garfinkel 1963, 1967) for meaningful social action and identity in the neighborhood. In a context of industrial decline and urban poverty, drug dealing careers constitute a major socialization factor, that touches everyone here—especially children.