零和世界、合作世界,抑或杂乱世界?——全球性挑战、供选择的未来,以及中美两国的关系

应邀参加这次美国研究所成立30周年的纪念仪式并发表讲话,我感到非常荣幸。31年前,我曾经和李慎之先生聊到过他想要创建美国研究所的想法,因此对这个由他发起创办的重要机构,我有着一种格外的亲切感。更巧的是,我得以在1981年美国研究所成立的时候最先访问中国。所以,30周年纪念对我个人而言,意义尤     

The relationship between physical and sexual abuse and drug use in a sample of juvenile detainees in Florida and a sample of committed youthful offenders in Colorado

The relationships between child physical and sexual abuse and illicit drug use are little understood and underinvestigated. Data gathered from a study of youths located in two different institutions for detained (Florida) and committed (Colorado) youthful offenders permitted an examination of this issue. The results indicate the youths' physical and sexual abuse experiences are significantly and positively related to their use of illicit drugs. The implications of these findings for further research are drawn.     

A Multilevel Examination of the Relationship Between Racial Tension and Attitudes Toward the Police

Prior research has established the effect of race and ethnicity on citizens’ perceptions of the police. This paper serves to build on this body of literature by examining the effect of racial tension on attitudes toward the police. Specifically, we conduct multilevel analyses using survey data from Seattle, Washington to explore whether individual perceptions of racial tension and/or community-level racial tension are related to residents’ attitudes toward the police. The results show that attitudes toward the police were generally less favorable among respondents who perceived racial tension or mistrust in their communities. Additionally, community racial tension had significant contextual effects on residents’ perceived racial profiling by the police. This study has implications for future police policy: understanding how racial tension shapes perceptions of the police will assist in selecting and adapting crime control strategies.     

Gendered Imprisonment in Japan: An Examination of Imprisonment for Stimulant Drug Offenses

Japan is well known not only as a society with low crime rates but also for using incarceration sparingly, sending few convicted offenders to prison. Yet, certain crimes, such as drug offenses, receive little leniency in the Japanese criminal justice system. Johnson (1996b) found empirical support for both chivalry and an ‘'evil woman'’ effect in the system's treatment of female drug offenders. This paper reexamines and extends the core issues in Johnson's (1996b) exploration of women's imprisonment in Japan. It traces the patterns in female incarceration where data are available from the postwar period until 2004. It specifically examines the incidences of incarceration of women for stimulant drug offenses and identifies key correlates on the macro‐level associated with changes in imprisonment practices.     

中美伙伴关系的战略机遇?

本文介绍了美国学界和政界对中国崛起的几种看法。第一种是少数人的观点,但在保守派里非常普遍。他们认为,中国崛起是不可避免的威胁;第二种观点认为,中国的崛起对美国形成安全挑战,但首先应被看作是美国的一个战略和经济机遇,同时需要对其采取“两面下注”战略。本文认为,这是大多数人的观点,指导着布什政府的全面对华政策。第三种观点认为,崛起的中国是美国应对21世纪挑战的潜在伙伴,中美两国应该密切合作,共同处理全球化带来的矛盾。本文认为,全球化创造了一个新的战略环境,可能阻止中美之间出现战略竞争。中美两国需要趁目前关系全面改善的好时期,“锁定”一种基于全球化时代战略现实的伙伴关系。     

The political consequences of thatcherism

While the economic changes effected by the British Conservative government in the 1980s are transparent, there is considerable debate as to whether there was a political dimension to the Thatcher Revolution. This paper argues that the Conservatives were successful in undertaking social structural reforms that effectively moved the political center of gravity in Britain to the right and toward the government's preferred market-oriented policy agenda. The government's strategy—manifest in the sale of council houses to tenants and of shares in privatized corporations to individuals, and its attack on organized labor—was narrowly targeted on the swing electorate among wealthier members of the lower socioeconomic strata. The Labour party has acknowledged the successes of the Conservatives' structural reforms, and has moved its policy platform, in Downsian fashion, to the right in order to regain electoral competitiveness.     

Gender and Juvenile Drug Abuse: A General Strain Theory Perspective

This study is a partial test of Robert Agnew's (2006 Agnew , Robert. 2006 . “Pressured Into Crime: General Strain Theory.” Pp. 201 – 209 in Criminological Theory: Past to Present. , 3rd ed. , edited by F. T. Cullen and R. Agnew . Oxford , England : Oxford University Press . [Google Scholar]) general strain theory. The sample consists of 39,879 juveniles between the ages of 10 and 17 from a metropolitan area in Texas with more than 5 million people. Logistic regression is used to determine the effect of living situation on drug offenders, drug recidivists, and juvenile court case outcome when race, abuse, sex, and mental health problems are controlled. Gender-specific analysis is used to test L. Broidy and R. Agnew's (1997 Agnew , Robert and Timothy Brezina . 1997 . “Relational Problems With Peers, Gender, and Delinquency.” Youth & Society 84 – 111 .[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) hypothesis that girls and boys react differently to strain. Results show partial support for the influence of a strained living situation on drug offenders, drug recidivists, and case outcome. Support is found for the hypothesis that boys' and girls' experiences with strain differ.