A Poisson model of incidents of international terrorism in the United States

Abstract

Various haphazard, and often uncoordinated, efforts have been devoted to discouraging and combatting terrorism. Unfortunately, there has been a noticeable lack of quantitative studies of the problem of terrorism. Nevertheless, it can be expected that the problem of international terrorism will eventually be a focus for operations researchers. A factor fundamental to any OR study is an understanding of the underlying generating process for incidents of terrorism. Based on incidents of terrorism from 1968 to 1974, this paper notes that the Poisson is a good model for the occurrence of incidents of international terrorism in the United States. Results of both chi‐square and Kolmogorov‐Smirnov tests are presented. Finally, an unusual result, inconsistent with popular beliefs, is noted.     

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South Asian nuclear arms competition: An American perspective∗

The analysis of nuclear arms competition in South Asia forms part of a much larger study of American relations with the region after the Cold War carried out under the auspices of The Asia Society. The nuclear policies of both India and Pakistan enjoy strong domestic political support. While a case can be made that a rudimentary state of nuclear deterrence exists between New Delhi and Islamabad, this may be undermined by deployment on both sides of ballistic missiles.