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541.
Gabriel Rosser Toby Davies Kate J. Bowers Shane D. Johnson Tao Cheng 《Journal of Quantitative Criminology》2017,33(3):569-594
Objectives
Decades of empirical research demonstrate that crime is concentrated at a range of spatial scales, including street segments. Further, the degree of clustering at particular geographic units remains noticeably stable and consistent; a finding that Weisburd (Criminology 53:133–157, 2015) has recently termed the ‘law of crime concentration at places’. Such findings suggest that the future locations of crime should—to some extent at least—be predictable. To date, methods of forecasting where crime is most likely to next occur have focused either on area-level or grid-based predictions. No studies of which we are aware have developed and tested the accuracy of methods for predicting the future risk of crime at the street segment level. This is surprising given that it is at this level of place that many crimes are committed and policing resources are deployed.Methods
Using data for property crimes for a large UK metropolitan police force area, we introduce and calibrate a network-based version of prospective crime mapping [e.g. Bowers et al. (Br J Criminol 44:641–658, 2004)], and compare its performance against grid-based alternatives. We also examine how measures of predictive accuracy can be translated to the network context, and show how differences in performance between the two cases can be quantified and tested.Results
Findings demonstrate that the calibrated network-based model substantially outperforms a grid-based alternative in terms of predictive accuracy, with, for example, approximately 20 % more crime identified at a coverage level of 5 %. The improvement in accuracy is highly statistically significant at all coverage levels tested (from 1 to 10 %).Conclusions
This study suggests that, for property crime at least, network-based methods of crime forecasting are likely to outperform grid-based alternatives, and hence should be used in operational policing. More sophisticated variations of the model tested are possible and should be developed and tested in future research.542.
543.
Drawing on Connell’s (Gender and power: Society, the person and sexual politics. California: Stanford University Press, 1987; Masculinities. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press, 1995) model of gender relations, this paper examines patterns of intimate partner violence among women who have recently left
an abusive partner. In so doing, we attempt to better understand the social structural factors that shape the relations of
power and control in intimate violent heterosexual unions. The data come from the first wave of a longitudinal prospective
survey of 309 women who had left an abusive partner in the previous 3 years. Our data suggest that structured relations of
inequality, namely relations of production, power and cathexis, shape women’s risk of abuse and harassment after leaving,
and do so in ways that shape relations of coercive control. These results have implications for understanding the social context
within which male violence against women occurs, and how this context constrains and/or enables women’s strategies for leaving
and safety.
This research was funded by the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) New Emerging Team Grant #106054 and Institute
of Gender and Health Operating Grant #15156 (Marilyn Ford-Gilboe, Principal Investigator). The authors thank the participants
in the Women’s Health Effects Study. We also thank Julie McMullin, Kim Shuey, and the Health Effects research team for their
helpful feedback. 相似文献
544.
Within migration studies there has been a tendency to focus on a single case study of a particular national group. Adopting a comparative approach may raise new and interesting questions or challenge conventional thinking on migration. While on the surface, at least, Irish and Polish migrants would appear to have many commonalities, there has been surprisingly little comparative analysis of these two groups. Drawing on my own research on these migrants in the British context, I focus on women as a large but under-researched aspect of both groups. This paper suggests ways in which such a comparison could be undertaken by using social networks as a useful comparative tool. A social networks perspective not only allows a probing analysis of migration strategies, but also provides a framework within which to compare across different migrant groups, such as for example, examining the role of family networks (here and there) in migration processes. In addition, this approach enables an examination of dynamism over time and how migrants develop relationships within spatially dispersed as well as locally embedded ties. 相似文献
545.
Objectives. Few studies have examined the judgements made towards adolescent rape victims, and none have investigated attributions towards gay male or lesbian adolescents. The current study examined the effects victim gender, victim sexual orientation, victim response, and respondent gender, on attributions of blame in the depicted rape of a 15‐year old adolescent. Methods. A total of 164 respondents read details of this assault before completing 15 attribution judgments. Results. Respondents were expected to attribute more blame to a victim who was male, gay, and who failed to resist the perpetrator. Male respondents were also expected to be more blaming of the victim than females. Overall these hypotheses were supported. Conclusion. Results are discussed in relation to the role gender stereotypes and homophobia play within attributions blame in sexual assault cases. Specifically, it seems male adolescent rape victims are subjected to the same negative stereotypes as male adult victims. Implications and ideas for future research are considered. 相似文献
546.
547.
In many American states, public defense is provided at the county rather than state level (Langton & Farole 2009 ). Local governments have discretion over implementing and funding the right to counsel, resulting in considerable variability in programs and funding levels. Placing this issue in the theoretical context of redistributive policies and politics, we investigate decisions on funding this service across upstate New York counties. Using as a point of departure Paul Peterson's classic explication of community politics, we first model variation in funding as a function of counties' fiscal capacity, need for services, and costs of supplying legal representation. We also test Peterson's prediction that local political factors will play little if any role in budget decisions. Second, through interviews with program administrators we explore the characters of twelve defender programs in which expenditures departed from the model's predictions. We find that three factors—which we term “influence,” “infrastructure,” and “ideas"”—also vary directly with levels of funding. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of these findings for theoretical thinking about due process policies and local politics, and for policy debate over how best to ensure adequate counsel in criminal court. 相似文献
548.
549.
Corrie?A.?Davies David?DiLilloEmail author Isaac?G.?Martinez 《Journal of family violence》2004,19(6):369-377
This study examined the relationship between childhood exposure to parental violence and adult psychological functioning in a sample of predominantly Mexican American participants. Questionnaires assessing childhood maltreatment, family environment, and current psychological symptomatology were completed by 142 female undergraduates. Findings revealed that witnessing parental violence in childhood was associated with depressive symptoms, low self-esteem, and trauma symptoms in adulthood, even after controlling for child physical and sexual abuse. However, in subsequent analyses, also controlling for levels of nonphysical family conflict, previous associations between exposure to parental violence and adult symptomatology were reduced, such that trauma-related symptoms remained the sole outcome still predicted by a history of witnessing parental violence. Implications of these findings, issues related to the use of statistical control procedures in abuse effects research, and directions for future investigation are discussed. 相似文献
550.
Child abuse is associated with a variety of difficulties later in life. However, it is unclear to what extent these outcomes are related to the type and combinations of abuse (i.e., sexual versus physical) rather than the variable characteristics within each type. Information regarding child abuse histories as well as current functioning was gathered from a community sample of 259 working women. Incest and severe physical abuse were each associated with similar symptoms, with people who were more severely abused showing worse outcomes. Those women who were both physically and sexually abused had less favorable outcomes than those abused in only one manner. The effects of abuse could not be understood without taking combinations of different types and severities into account. The implications of the similarities of the outcomes of severe sexual and physical abuse were discussed. 相似文献