Practice and research in managing human systems—Four problems of relationship

Academic disciplines, it is argued, have structural reasons for remaining separate from each other. Professional schools, on the other hand, having a built-in test of relevance, draw what they need from different disciplines and are better equipped for inter-disciplinary work, even though they have problems in bridging professional boundaries. But the professions which manage human systems (management, government, planning, policy making) have no such support from the social sciences as, for example, medicine and engineering draw from the natural sciences. They have evolved powerful means of modelling complex human systems but they lack any adequate source of the assumptions needed for such models, since these are culture-determined and historically determined variables, far more dependent on specific time and place.The paper raises for discussion questions related to (a) the inter-relation of the social sciences; (b) their relation to the professional fields in which they might be applied; (c) their relation to the management sciences; and (d) the scope for an all-embracing general systems theory.     

The median voter model across levels of government

The median voter model provides a method of aggregating individual voter's demands to obtain community demand. Although higher level governments are often assumed to be less responsive to voters than lower level governments, it remains an open question whether or not the median voter model, which has been found to apply to the lowest tier of the federalist system, extends to higher level governments. We use the Cox specification test to find that the ad hoc model dominates the median model for counties and states. The county results are sensitive to the time periods, budgetary structure, and degree of urbanization.     

Britain and Ghana's Economy

This talk was given by the British High Commissioner in Ghanaat a meeting of the Royal African Society and the Royal CommonwealthSociety on June 6, 1963. General Sir Frank Simpson, G.B.E.,K.C.B., D.S.O., D.L., adviser to the West African Committee,took the chair     

Low-intensity community supervision for low-risk offenders: a randomized,controlled trial

The Philadelphia Low-Intensity Community Supervision Experiment provides evidence on the effects of lowering the intensity of community supervision with low-risk offenders in an urban, US county community corrections agency. Using a random forests forecasting model for serious crime based on Berk et al. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 172(Part 1), 191–211, 2009, 1,559 low-risk offenders were identified and randomly assigned to either standard or reduced frequency of mandatory office visits. Treatment as assigned was substantially delivered at 4.5 probation visits per year versus 2.4, for as long as offenders remained on active probation or parole. In a one-year follow-up for all cases, outcomes examined were the prevalence, frequency, seriousness and time-to-failure of arrests for new crimes committed after random assignment was implemented. No significant differences (p = .05) in outcomes were found between standard and low-intensity groups. Non-significant differences for offense seriousness favored the low-intensity group. We conclude that lower-intensity supervision at the tested level of dosage can allow fewer officers to supervise low-risk offenders in the community without evidence of increased volume or seriousness of crime.     

Designing a tax incentive scheme: The case of a wage tip

Governments are constantly attempting to use their tax systems for purposes other than the collection of revenue. Each such use entails difficult decisions of both design and administration. Consideration of a tax-based policy that might reduce wage inflation—a so-called TIP—serves to reveal the wide range of difficult choices that need to be made. In addition to problems of measuring the behavior of the tax payer who is to be benefited or penalized, the analyst must settle on such questions as whether the program should be permanent or temporary, whether it should emphasize rewards or punishments, and whether it should be administered by existing government agencies or by special agencies. None of these problems is insuperable. But lurking behind all of them is the question whether, is the end, the chosen policy will actually contribute to reducing wage inflation.