British Intelligence in the Middle East, 1898–1906

This article examines British intelligence efforts in Turkish Arabia at the turn of the twentieth century. It argues that intelligence collection was really three separate efforts, carried out by the War Office, the Foreign Office, and the Government of India, and it reflected concerns about British decline, the problems experienced during the Boer War, as well as an effort to penetrate the ‘information order’ of India's sub-empire. Although intelligence efforts suffered from bureaucratic disharmony in Whitehall, and between London and the Government of India, valuable contributions were nevertheless made to Britain's knowledge of Turkish Arabia.     

Characteristics that predict firesetting in male and female mentally disordered offenders

Few studies have adequately explored the characteristics of male and female mentally disordered firesetters and compared these to those of non-firesetting mentally disordered offenders. Furthermore, there is a paucity of research examining the characteristics which can predict repeat firesetting within this population. The current study aimed to examine similarities and differences in the characteristics of (1) male and female mentally disordered firesetters, (2) male and female mentally disordered firesetters compared to non-firesetting offenders, and (3) one-time and repeat firesetters. Furthermore, the ability of these characteristics to predict offence status (i.e. firesetter or non-firesetter) and repeat firesetting was explored. Information was collected from patient hospital records for 77 (43 firesetters, 34 non-firesetters) mentally disordered offenders; including sociodemographic, family and personal background, psychiatric, and offence history factors. The findings suggest that mentally disordered firesetters are similar to their non-firesetting counterparts on key characteristics; however, firesetters are more likely to have an expressed interest in fire/explosives and a diagnosis of a schizophrenic disorder and female firesetters are more likely to have a higher number of firesetting incidents than males. Furthermore, findings suggest that fire interest is the largest predictor of repeat firesetting. Clinical implications in terms of treatment and risk assessment are discussed.     

Evaluation of the ADViSOR project: Cross‐situational behaviour monitoring of high‐risk offenders in prison and the community

Purpose. The release on licence of prisoners who have committed serious violent and/or sexual offences requires rigorous risk assessment and risk management. This study evaluates the ADViSOR project, designed to examine the contribution of prison behaviour monitoring to community supervision of a sample of the highest risk offenders released in England and Wales under Multi‐Agency Public Protection Arrangements (MAPPA). Method. The offence‐related behaviour of a total group (n= 25) of MAPPA prisoners in one prison, due for release in the following year to two adjacent probation trust areas, was monitored. Their behaviours in the community were followed up for 1 year. A comparison group (n= 36) was formed of the total number of MAPPA prisoners released from prisons nationally to the same two probation trusts. Results. The frequencies of ADViSOR negative behaviours in prison and the community were strongly correlated, r_s (25) = .55, p= .004, as were positive behaviours, r_s (25) = .56, p= .004. No statistically significant correlations were found either under usual MAPPA processes in the ADViSOR prison or comparison group prisons. The frequency of ADViSOR negative behaviours statistically significantly predicted, with 92% accuracy, the offenders who would reoffend or be recalled to prison (n= 8). Statistically significant similarities in types of behaviour were also identified. Conclusion. Results are discussed in terms of the contribution of behavioural monitoring to risk prediction with high‐risk offenders, consistency of cross‐situational behaviours, and implications for policy and practice.     

Pharmacological interventions for drug-using offenders: an update to a systematic review and meta-analysis

Journal of Experimental Criminology - This updated systematic review assesses the effects of pharmacological interventions for drug-using offenders. Systematic review protocols and conventions of...     

Yeling Tan,Disaggregating China,Inc.: State Strategies in the Liberal Economic Order

Journal of Chinese Political Science -     

No visible difference: a women's empowerment process in a Cambodian NGO

The lives of female Cambodian NGO staff are characterised by the contradictions of apparent freedom and multiple invisible constraints on their behaviour and choices. An empowerment process facilitated by an expatriate did not produce the expected responses of sisterhood and group action. Through a series of workshops, learning emerged about the context-dependent nature of concepts of empowerment, and the irrelevance of many Western models for other cultures. Fear and mistrust, rooted in both traditional culture and the post-conflict context, are powerful and profound blocks to change in women's lives. No visible difference in workplace behaviours appeared after the empowerment process. However, the women responded to new insights about their lives, beliefs, and culture in ways that had meaning for them; and they reported significant benefits for family and social relationships.     

Measuring the validity and reliability of forensic likelihood-ratio systems

There has been a great deal of concern recently about validity and reliability in forensic science. This paper reviews for a broad target audience metrics of validity and reliability (accuracy and precision) which have been applied in forensic voice comparison and which are potentially applicable in other branches of forensic science. The metric of validity is the log likelihood-ratio cost (C_llr), and the metric of reliability is an empirical estimate of credible intervals. A revised procedure for the calculation of credible intervals is introduced.     

Reducing criminal recidivism: evaluation of Citizenship, an evidence-based probation supervision process

‘Citizenship’ is a structured probation supervision program based on ‘what works’ principles, designed for offenders on community orders or licenses supervised within the UK National Probation Service. The program was evaluated using survival analysis comparing the reconvictions of a cohort of all offenders in one probation area eligible for Citizenship over a 2-year period (n = 3,819) with those of a retrospective cohort of all eligible offenders in the same probation area receiving ‘traditional’ probation supervision (n = 2,110), controlling for risk related factors. At the 2-year stage, 50% of offenders in the comparison group had reoffended compared to 41% in the experimental group, and the difference between the survival curves was statistically significant. The hazard ratio was 0.69, which represents a 31% reduction in reconvictions in the experimental group over the proportion in the comparison group at any given time. Time to violation of a supervision order or post custody license was also statistically significantly longer in the experimental group. A key element of the program, promoting contact with community support agencies, was statistically significantly related to reduced reoffending in the Citizenship group. The overall effects remained after controlling for differences in risk scores although effectiveness varied by risk level. Contrary to other ‘what works’ research findings, the program was found to be most effective across the low–medium and medium–high risk thresholds, and was not effective with the highest risk group. This difference can be explained and is discussed in terms of risk, need, and responsivity principles. The Citizenship program was found to be cost-beneficial.