Die Prognosegüte von Wahlbörsen und Meinungsumfragen zur Bundestagswahl 2005

In the aftermath of an election it has become customary to systematically compare the predictive accuracy of polls and political stock exchanges. However, most of these analyses do not emerge from real predictions. In this research note, we compare the predictive performance of a time-series model to the accuracy of polls and a political stock market in the 2005 german Bundestag (general) election. Our analysis shows that Wahl$treet, the most significant german political stock exchange, was again closest to the actual results leaving commercial polling institutes behind. Due to the exceptionally large errors of most institutes we briefly discuss how such inaccurate forecasts might affect voting behaviour in the light of social choice theory.     

Barriers to competition and the effect on political shirking: 1953–1992

Economists and political scientists have offered a variety of explanations for why legislators might rationally choose to ignore the preferences of their constituents, political parties, and presidents. The broad conclusion of this literature is that there is an element of “shirking” in congressional voting. The objective of this paper is to suggest that the effects of shirking in congressional voting may have increased over time, largely in response to the raising of barriers to competition in congressional elections, thereby enabling legislators to vote their own preferences without fear of losing reelection. We use a quasi-experimental design that controls for the effects of party, region, electoral safety, presidential control of the White House, and constituency factors, in isolating the causal effects of barriers to entry on a continuous series of roll-calls regarding the raising of the debt limit between 1953 and 1992. We find that “shirking” in legislative voting on debt limit legislation is a post-1970s phenomenon.     

Death during theft from electric utilities

Utilities that supply power are subject to theft of service and theft of hardware used to provide service. Individuals who try to steal from a power utility risk electrocution. We conducted a retrospective study of all individuals examined by the Jefferson County Coroner Medical Examiner Office from January 1981 through December 2001 and found that 8 individuals died trying to steal from a power utility. All decedents were men, with an average age of 33 years. Seven decedents were stealing copper, and 1 was stealing electricity. Only 1 decedent survived long enough to be admitted to a hospital. Five decedents were intoxicated, 3 with ethanol, 1 with cocaine, and 1 with both cocaine and ethanol. Seven decedents sustained electrical burns in keeping with the high voltage to which they were subjected. The unburned decedent died of laceration of the aorta at its origin from the heart, an injury sustained when the decedent fell from the power pole. All 8 decedents attempted their theft during daylight. Items found in the decedent's pockets, the presence of a ladder nearby, or the presence of electrical tools around the body may help to establish the attempted act of theft.     

‘Three Chinas’ and international organizations after 1997

This article analyzes the effects of the transfer of Hong Kong's sovereignty to China in 1997 on the participation of Hong Kong and Taiwan in international organizations. It identifies the conditions under which China tolerates co‐existence with Taiwan as members of eleven intergovernmental organizations as of 1996. It concludes with two observations: one, international organizations are not monolithic entities; two, although China has overwhelming influence over Hong Kong's participation in these organizations, it depends also on how the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government is going to manage its relations with China.     

Justice, Democracy, and Hazardous Siting

In this essay we examine some issues of justice associated with the siting of hazardous industrial facilities. Utilitarian justifications of siting decisions are inadequate because they fail to address questions of fairness. Approaches that consider questions of distributive equity provide a better framework for siting justice, but are still incomplete. Limiting questions of justice to the distribution of benefits and burdens fails to examine the justice of procedures for deciding such issues of distribution. We argue that justice requires a participatory communicative democratic process for siting hazardous facilities, in two respects. It is prima facie unjust to impose a risk on citizens without their having participated in the siting process. Participatory communicative democratic procedures in facility siting, moreover, when structured according to specific norms of discussion and inclusion, are likely to yield the most just outcomes. We propose procedural as well as substantive conditions for such democratic procedures, and briefly apply these conditions to evaluate the siting of a landfill in Switzerland.     

Debt and the Local Economy: Problems in Benchmarking Local Government Debt Affordability

Debt creation imposes an obligation to repay borrowed funds from a wealth base that for most local governments is capitalized in property values. Therefore, the ability to afford debt is tied to the local economy, a factor often overlooked by localities in the analyses of their own position. However, debt levels are also relative, as the many debt affordability studies among governments and by bond rating agencies suggest. We argue here that economic concentration and interjurisdictional coordination fundamentally provide a broader analytical approach to the question a locality asks: can we afford more debt?