Incumbency effects in political campaigns

In this paper we examine two effects of incumbency. First, an incumbent may have an advantage in creating a favorable image in the eyes of the voters. Second, the incumbent may have to chose a position before the challenger; this second aspect of incumbency is modelled as Stackelberg leadership. In the model two candidates run for election by choosing a position in an ideological spectrum. Voters care about candidates' chosen positions as well as non-policy attributes of candidates, which we call charisma. Charismata are not known when candidates choose policy positions; they are only revealed on election day so that winning is not usually a certain prospect. Candidates care about the probability of winning but they also dislike compromising their own ideals.We find that the incumbent's equilibrium position is closer to his/her own ideal point than the equilibrium position of the game when moves are simultaneous. Also, for sufficiently large charismatic differences a natural leadership regime prevails: the candidate with the large charismatic advantage prefers being a leader to being a follower and the opponent prefers being a follower. If the difference in charismata is small both players prefer to be followers     

Political culture,postmaterial values,and the new environmental paradigm: A comparative analysis of Canada and the United States

This study investigates the relationship between postmaterial values and the New Environmental Paradigm in Canada (Ontario) and the United States (Michigan). Based on survey data collected among both citizens and environmental activists, it is evident that among both Canadian and American respondents of both citizen and activist type the two value dimensions are similarly multidimensional and separate. Rather than reflecting a single larger dimension of value orientation, as claimed by some, it is clear that the Inglehart postmaterialist value measure and the Dunlap and Van Liere NEP index are separate constructs in the thinking of the Canadians and Americans surveyed. While these findings were parallel in the Canadian and American settings, a number of cross-national differences in how these values influence attitudes and behaviors are reported. In general, these findings underscore the need to continue to focus on variations in the cultural context of citizen responses to postindustrial change.     

The distribution of D1S80 and VWA alleles in a Karen population from Northern Thailand

The DIS80 and VWA loci were studied in a Karen population from Northern Thailand by the polymerase chain reaction and polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis. Twelve DIS80 and six VWA alleles were found. No deviations from the Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium were observed. The power of exclusion (PE) from the analysis of the DIS80 and VWA locus is 0.67 and 0.45, respectively, the power of discrimination (PD) is 0.95 and 0.85, respectively, with a combined PD of 0.99 and PE of 0.82.     

Friedrich Engels and the Origins of German Revisionism: Another Look

The precise nature of Friedrich Engels' theoretical role following Marx's death in 1883 has remained a hotly disputed topic among historians of socialist thought. However, despite their intellectual disagreements, the exponents of various perspectives frequently share a serious interpretive deficiency: the failure to anchor their readings of crucial texts in an analysis of specific political contexts. Situating Engels' later writings—his 1890s Letters on Historical Materialism, and his 1895 Introduction to Marx's The Class Struggles in France —within the dramatically changed political situation in fin de siècle Germany, this essay seeks to recast the entire gestalt of the quarrel over Engels' alleged revisionism by illuminating the historical and political framework that shaped his late Marxism and its theoretical premises.     

Reviews

Big Men, Small Boys and Politics in Ghana: Power, Ideology and the Burden of History, 1982–1994 by Paul Nugent. Pinter Publishing Limited (London and New York). 1995. xiv plus 306pp. including bibliography and index. £35 or $63 hardback.

Understanding Contemporary Africa (2nd edition) edited by April A. Gordon and Donald L. Gordon. Lynne Rienner Publishers, Boulder and London. 1996. xiv plus 432pp. including maps, illustrations, notes, bibliographies, appendices and index.

The Politics of Difference: Ethnic Premises in a World of Power edited by Edwin N. Wilmsen and Patrick McAllister. University of Chicago Press: Chicago and London. 1996. ix plus 210pp.

The Multilateral Development Banks. Volume 1. The African Development Bank by E. Philip English and Harris M. Mule. The North‐South Institute. Ottawa. 1996. xvi plus 213pp.

Brothers at War: Dissidence and Rebellion in Southern Africa by Abiodun Alao. British Academic Press, London and New York. 1994. xiii plus 201pp. including notes, bibliography, index. £39.50. Hardback.

Now that We are Free: Coloured Communities in Democratic South Africa edited by Wilmot James, Daria Caliguire and Kerry Cullinan. Lynne Rienner Publishing, Boulder (Colorado) and London. 1996. 142pp.

Imperialism or Solidarity? International Labour and South African Trade Unions by Roger Southall. University of Cape Town Press, Cape Town. 1995. 398pp.

The Aid Relationship in Zambia: A Conflict Scenario by Oliver Saasa and Jerker Carlsson. Institute for African Studies, Lusaka (Zambia) and Nordic Africa Institute, Uppsala (Sweden). 1996. 170pp. including figures, tables, notes, bibliography and index. Paperback.     

Herabsetzung des Wahlalters auf 16 Jahre – Fortschritt oder Irrweg

Im vorliegenden Beitrag werden verschiedene Fragen diskutiert, die sich im Zusammenhang mit der Herabsetzung des Wahlalters für die Nationalratswahlen auf 16 Jahre ergeben. Insbesondere wird auf mögliche Inkonsistenzen infolge höherer Altersgrenzen in anderen Bundesgesetzen, die ebenfalls auf eine entsprechende Reife von Jugendlichen abstellen, eingegangen. So stellt sich etwa die Frage, ob Personen, die noch nicht voll geschäftsfähig sind, schon die geistige Reife haben, um auf Bundesebene zu wählen.     

Die Haushaltsrechtsreform des Bundes

Dieser Artikel beschreibt das wohl weitreichendste, gleichwohl aber von der Öffentlichkeit weitgehend unbemerkte Reformwerk der vergangenen Legislaturperiode. Die Haushaltsrechtsreform des Bundes wird in diesem Text nicht aus juristischer Perspektive kommentiert. Vielmehr versucht der Autor, einen allgemein verständlichen Überblick über das facettenreiche und sehr umfängliche Reformwerk zu geben, das in seinen Details noch immer im Entstehen begriffen ist. Die Grundthese des Autors lautet, dass diese Reform in ihren absehbaren Auswirkungen weit über das Haushaltsrecht selbst hinaus wirkt und zu wesentlichen Veränderungen in der gesamten Bundesverwaltung und in wichtigen anderen Politikbereichen führen könnte. Der Kern der Reform ist gleichsam die Etablierung eines permanent weiter wirkenden Reformmotors, dessen Herz die Wirkungsorientierung darstellt.     

Entwicklungslinien der Politischen Theorie in Deutschland seit 1945

In this article we map out the development of German political theory since 1945 and locate it within the international context. For this purpose we track concepts which were central in shaping the scholarly controversies within the field. We distinguish between organizational concepts (democracy, state, power, system, institution), normative ideas (justice, common welfare, recognition) and new themes (gender, discourse, globalization). The resulting picture of the development of political theory replaces the common idea of three phases with a decisive break at the beginning of the 1980s.     

Logics of action and models of capitalism: Explaining bottom‐up non‐liberal change

Recent institutionalist scholarship has theorized the liberalization or “disorganization” of capitalism as the result of shifts in economic actors' “logic of action” towards opportunism. Little attention has been given to the reverse possibility that shifts in economic actors' “logic of action” away from opportunism might contribute to “embedding” or “organizing” capitalism. This paper builds on recent scholarship to theorize this scenario and then demonstrate its empirical validity with an historical institutionalist study of the emergence of such a “non‐liberal” institution in Switzerland in 1961. The theoretical framework links three “logics of action” – opportunism, enlightened self‐interest and strong solidarity – to Höpner's typology of capitalist institutions – organized, coordinated, and liberal. It theorizes the interactions between these logics and the social mechanism – goal signaling – that can explain a shift from one logic of action to another, potentially leading to change from one type of institution to another.     

Constructing STR Multiplexes for Individual Identification of Hungarian Red Deer

Red deer is the most valuable game of the fauna in Hungary, and there is a strong need for genetic identification of individuals. For this purpose, 10 tetranucleotide STR markers were developed and amplified in two 5‐plex systems. The study presented here includes the flanking region sequence analysis and the allele nomenclature of the 10 loci as well as the PCR optimization of the DeerPlex I and II. LD pairwise tests and cross‐species similarity analyses showed the 10 loci to be independently inherited. Considerable levels of genetic differences between two subpopulations were recorded, and F_ST was 0.034 using AMOVA. The average probability of identity (PI_ave) was at the value of 2.6736 × 10^?15. This low value for PI_ave nearly eliminates false identification. An illegal hunting case solved by DeerPlex is described herein. The calculated likelihood ratio (LR) illustrates the potential of the 10 red deer microsatellite markers for forensic investigations.